Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 170028
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
828 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 536 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS REACH NEAR 60 DEGREES
THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING  TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BY SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

WARM ADVECTION TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. DESPITE DRY LOW LEVELS...STRENGTH OF WARM
ADVECTION AND MODEST GRADIENT IN PLACE MAY TEND TO KEEP LOWS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST. MAY MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO MINS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A POTENT VORT MAX OVER ERN SD THIS AFTN
WHILE A VERY DRY AIRMASS WAS SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN U.S. AND
NRN GULF OF MEXICO. SD VORT EXPECTED TO SHEAR OUT AS IT LIFTS NE
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE SEVERAL WK TRAILING SHRTWVS MOVE EAST
FROM THE ROCKIES AND CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROF FROM
MN-NE TX BY THU EVE. AT THE SFC, LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN IA ALSO
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NE TO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS NRN IL TO NE TX BY THU EVE. STRONGEST
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHRTWV WILL PASS BY TO OUR NW
TONIGHT WHILE MAIN AREA OF FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF APCHG MID LEVEL
TROF AND SFC CDFNT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH THU EVE.
INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF WILL RESULT IN WK
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. THUS... DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD... BUT DO EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA. DECENT
SE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD PERSIST TONIGHT AND ALONG WITH WK WAA
PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE L30S EAST TO THE M30S WEST. SUFFICIENT GRADIENT/INSOLATION
EXPECTED THU FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING UP THROUGH H85 RESULTING IN
HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

ALL IN ALL A GENERALLY DRY PERIOD IN STORE WITH ONLY 2 LIMITED
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AS GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS CUT OFF UNTIL CLOSER
TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT THE FIRST FEW DAYS. UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS WELL NW OF THE REGION WITH A MSTR STARVED COLD
FRONT (850 MB THETA E BARELY TOUCHES 300 K AND PWATS 0.75 OR LESS)
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA THURS NGT INTO FRI. DESPITE THIS...LOOKS
LIKE SUFFICIENT FORCING WILL EXIST TO FORCE AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS...WARRANTING CONTINUED MID TO UPPER CHC RANGE POPS WITH
HIGHEST NE. THE FRONT WILL BRING LITTLE COLD AIR WITH IT THIS FAR
SOUTH WITH 850 MB TEMPS BARELY TOUCHING +2 C FRIDAY NIGHT. QUICK
REBOUND IN TEMPS EXPECTED AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE SW ALLOWS FOR
INCREASING HGTS AND TEMPS HEADING ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 60S. HAVE
STAYED CONSERVATIVE BUT COULD SEE SOME 70S BY SUNDAY JUST AHEAD OF
THE EJECTING...BUT DAMPENING WAVE. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THIS WAVE PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA WITH BETTER MSTR (THETA E APPROACHING 320 K) WARRANTING
AGAIN MID-HIGH CHC POPS.

FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO LARGE TROUGH THAT WILL DIG INTO THE SW STATES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A STRONG INCREASE
IN HGTS AND POTENTIAL RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. IN
ADDITION...SOME MODELS INDICATE GULF WOULD OPEN UP WHICH COULD
SUGGEST INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS AS PIECES OF ENERGY EJECT.
LOTS OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS...BUT TREND TOWARDS WARMER WEATHER
DEFINITELY SEEMS TO BE SHAPING UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS KEPT A DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEST GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS WESTERN IOWA WILL RESULT IN MAINTENANCE OF SOUTH WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS...WITH LOSS OF HIGHER GUSTS NEXT HOUR OR TWO. NARROW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS MAY PROMOTE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF
DIURNAL VFR SCT CU THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL
ON THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL/KG
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


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