Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 271856
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
256 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

INTENSE JUNE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION TO BEGIN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. UNSEASONABLE DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP
ANALYSIS DEPICTING SYSTEM NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH UPPER LOW
NEAR OH/MI/IN BORDER. KIWX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SHRA ROTATING
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NE CWA...BUT MOD/HVY RAIN
GRADUALLY LIFTING E/NE. MANY AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA EXPERIENCING WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
AREAL FLOOD WARNING INTO THE EVENING. HIRES GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND EXPECT PRECIP TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY
OUT OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR CWA TONIGHT. DEEP SURFACE SYSTEM
RESULTING IN STRONG GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF WITH GUSTS TO
30KTS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...AND NOT DIMINISHING OVER OUR
EASTERN TIER OF OHIO COUNTIES UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNSET. LARGE SCALE
TROF AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE US AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE NW GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY. SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN WILL BE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SUNDAY DRY. COOL AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE LOWS DROPPING INTO THE M50S WHILE AMPLE SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS REACHING SEASONABLY COOL M-U70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHRTWV WILL DROP SE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF GRTLKS TROF
INTO IL SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY MON. THE
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE STILL LOOKING TO BE MONDAY ACROSS
OUR CWA. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT BUT SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL PRBLY LINGER AT LEAST INTO
THE LATE EVE... MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT TUE AS UPR TROF AXIS JUST EAST OF
THE CWA WITH DIURNAL AFTN HEATING. THE NEXT SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH BACKSIDE OF ERN CONUS TROF ON WED BRINGING ANOTHER CHC
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE WX PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK BRINGING CHANCES FOR SCTD PRECIP EACH DAY. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR FRI. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH ENHANCE CLOUDINESS AND SCTD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 100 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NE AND MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. KIWX RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO ROTATE
BACK INTO NORTHERN INDIANA BRINGING LIGHT RAIN NEAR BOTH TAF SITES
AT THE ONSET OF THIS CYCLE BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN NOW LIFTING NE
AWAY FROM THE AREA. PLAN TO INCLUDE A TEMPO/VC GROUP FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT
BOTH SITES. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH GOING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...DECREASING TO 10KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...JAL


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