Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 240841
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
441 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA MUCH OF TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT CAUSING SHOWERS... AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S... WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST...
BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVERNIGHT TO THE 40S OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA/NE CONUS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING AT NOSE OF LLJ AHEAD OF SHRTWV CROSSING
CO ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SWRN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE THIS
AFTN OR THIS EVE AND SPREAD E-NE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WRN GRTLKS. WITH CONTD LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TODAY... WAA SHOULD BE SLOW TO BE REALIZED AT
THE SFC WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 35-40F RANGE. CONTD
LOW LEVEL WAA TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS RISING OVERNIGHT AFTER
A SMALL DIP IN THE EVE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE. SOME CONCERN
THAT TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO FREEZING ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA
FOR A SHORT PERIOD AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT... BUT HELD OFF ADDING
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FCST SINCE TEMPS MARGINAL AND IF FREEZING RAIN
OCCURS AT ALL IT WILL PRBLY BE BRIEF WITH LITTLE OR NO IMPACT...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SOME SUNSHINE WILL WARM ROADS TODAY AND
SUB-SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

FIRST WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY DEPARTING THE AREA WITH RAIN ENDING FROM
SW TO NE DURING THE MORNING. CLEARING SKIES WILL COMMENCE AS
SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WAVE
WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...BUT MAIN
QUESTION REMAINS CAN ENOUGH MIXING TAKE PLACE EARLIER IN THE DAY TO
ALLOW TEMPS TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S. GUIDANCE HAS ALL
LEANED TOWARDS COLDER ACROSS THE BOARD WITH WARMEST READINGS
CLOSER TO DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SE WHERE THE NEXT WAVE
WILL RIDE. WILL BE RELUCTANTLY LOWERING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT
STILL ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS FOR NOW.

AS LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ENTIRE AREA WOULD LOOK
TO GET AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP TRENDING LIGHTER TOWARDS THE
NW WITH POTENTIAL FOR A TIGHT CUTOFF. HIGHEST POPS WOULD SEEM TO BE
CLUSTERED ACROSS SE THIRD OF SO FROM MARION TO OTTAWA OHIO WHERE A
HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN WILL FALL...TAPERING TO MAYBE A TENTH OR
SO FAR NW. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY BARELY MAKING IT ABOVE FREEZING. SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BE
BRIEF WITH SOME MODERATION INTO THE START OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 130 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

LOW CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASED AS DRIER AIR IN LOW LEVELS WAS MOVG
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE. HWVR...VSBYS HAVE BEEN LOWERING AT A
FEW SITES ALONG THE MI/IN BORDER AS WEAKER GRADIENT IN THIS AREA
ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. MAY BE SOME PATCHY BR AT SBN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT BY DAYBREAK GRADIENT SHOULD INCREASE
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA MOVES SE... ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS
AT BOTH SITES WHICH SHOULD CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT APPROACH FROM THE SW... BUT SHOULD STAY
VFR THROUGH 06Z WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT


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