Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 280537
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
137 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HAVE MIXED OUT WELL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SIMILAR PATTERN
SETS UP FOR TUESDAY AND EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP RAPIDLY INTO
THE UPPER 80S BY MID AFTERNOON.

COULD BE PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY FOG IN THE WX GRIDS.

SO IN THE HOT AND NO PRECIP. THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE
INTERESTING HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
LIFT ENE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY...FINALLY TAKING RESIDENCE
OVER HUDSON BAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL FORCE A SHEARING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THIS TRANSITION. LOW
CHANCES FOR WHAT IS LEFT OF UPSTREAM ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
SPILL/SURVIVE SE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER TUESDAY NIGHT-
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN FOLDING THERMAL RIDGE. DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR ISO-SCT THUNDERSTORMS
(NEGLIGIBLE DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MORNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS
LIMITING FACTORS) BY LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR/FLOW
LAGGING POST FRONTAL SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM AT BEST (WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH IF STORMS FIRE).

POST-FRONTAL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A DRY/LESS
HUMID THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SEVERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCES WILL DROP THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AS FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT LOWS/HIGHS TO AVERAGE OUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OVERALL QUIET PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE WITH
GREAT LAKES ANTICYCLONE CONTINUING TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OVERNIGHT
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY FEW-SCT VFR CU DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS SLOWLY BEGIN TO VEER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRIMARY LOW
LEVEL MOIST TONGUE WILL ADVECT INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AFTER THIS
FORECAST VALID PERIOD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TO CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO
PERSISTENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


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