Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 142338
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
638 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 258 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Warmer, more moist, air will stream northward into the region
through Thursday with chances for rain, drizzle and fog. Steady or
slowly rising temperatures expected tonight with highs Thursday
reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s. Locations southeast of Route
24 on Thursday in east- central Indiana and northwest Ohio could
see highs near 60 degrees. This will followed by a brief shot of
cooler and drier weather Friday into Saturday. The pattern next
week looks quite wet and mild.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Warm air continues to surge north into the region with
temperatures generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s, even over
the snowpack. Not seeing a lot of impacts yet on the snowpack
despite the warmer temps as cloud cover has kept effect of the sun
limited, plus near/below freezing dewpoints also having an impact.
Thus fog hasn`t been a major issue. As higher moisture continues
to filter in tonight into Thursday and inversion strengthens, do
anticipate expansion of fog across the area. Great threat for more
widespread and possibly dense fog will in areas where snowpack
exists. Fog thus far has remained in check but expect this to
start to change as deeper moisture also surges north, as depicted
by upper 30 to low 40 dewpoints into our southern counties and
even near 50 down to southern Indiana. Temperatures tonight will
generally be steady or slowly rise, allowing for fog to become a
larger concern, especially over the snowpack. Will keep mention of
areas of fog NW half or so with patchy dense fog as well. Dense
fog advisory could be needed in some areas but will defer to
evening/overnight shifts to assess. Otherwise, just some drizzle
or light rain expected in the wake of scattered shower activity
currently moving east out of the area.

Fog will likely linger into Thursday morning before trough
approaches and brings widespread rain to the area during the
afternoon. Large temperature difference expected NW to SE due to
cold ground with highs in mid 40s NW to possibly flirting with 60
SE. Heaviest rainfall still expected in SE where upwards of one
half to three quarters of an inch falling vs maybe a few tenths
NW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Rain will slowly exit the area Thursday evening, possible ending
as a mix of precip as colder air rushes back in behind the system.
Could be some slick spots late Thursday night into Friday morning
as wet roads could freeze up.

Brief quiet and cool period will be in store Friday afternoon into
at least Saturday morning before a weak disturbance brings a
chance for some rain or snow. Not a big deal overall with only
slgt chance to chance pops in the forecast Sat afternoon into
evening. Quiet, but somewhat warmer conditions arrive Sat
night into Sunday before conditions turn much wetter as frontal
boundary sets up SW to NE somewhere across the southern Great
Lakes/upper Ohio Valley. Series of systems will track along it,
bringing good chances for rain, possibly heavy in some areas, as
Gulf of Mexico feed will be wide open. FLooding concerns will come
into play in many basins, with exact impacts unknown contingent on
where and how much rain occurs. Temperatures will vary greatly
with those on the cold side of the front likely in the 30s and
40s and warm side into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

widespread IFR and LIFR conditions will persist through much of
the forecast period. Dense fog and drizzle have formed along the
southern edge of the snow pack with the warm advection. As the
warm air continues to stream across the snow field, expect to see
the southern edge of the cloud deck rise and vsby improve
slightly. Have introduced MVFR conditions at FWA late in the
forecast period...and this will have to be watched carefully as
the cigs could still be quite low. As the snow begins to erode,
the cooler moisture laden air will saturate over the deeper snow
pack to create persistent LIFR conditions especially for KSBN and
areas north of a KRZL-KJYM line.

Additionally, as the day progresses tomorrow, approaching boundary
layer trof will sweep across the region with LLWS threat
increasing as the WAA continues near surface. This will last much
of the afternoon into early evening.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel/Fisher
SHORT TERM...Fisher
LONG TERM...Fisher
AVIATION...Lewis


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