Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 312133
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
533 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 508 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT US ALL THE RAIN THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP ON
MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT TONIGHT. THIS WILL END THE SPRINKLES
TO LIGHT SHOWERS THAT ARE LEFT IN THE AREA TO END BY MIDNIGHT.
THEN THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 40S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
IN SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE WESTERN TO
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

MAINLY DRY/UNSEASONABLE COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT
AND MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS IN WAKE OF AN
EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SOUTHEAST OF A BUILDING
NORTHERN/WESTERN GREAT LAKES SFC RIDGE AXIS. STILL MAY SEE A FEW
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS EAST-SOUTHEAST ZONES INTO
THE EARLY EVENING ALONG TRAILING 700 MB TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO THE REST OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE OH/TN
RIVER VALLEYS NEAR A LEFTOVER BOUNDARY AND STALLED SECONDARY
CIRCULATION. RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN POST FRONTAL INVERSION SHOULD
KEEP LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING (SAVE
FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE SOME GRADUAL EROSION IS
EXPECTED). THIS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL LOSS/TEMP FALLS TONIGHT
WITH TEMPS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST MONDAY
EVENING AS UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO
ADVECT DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WILL THEN UNFOLD THROUGH MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AS A CUT OFF UPPER PV ANOMALY WILL BE MEANDERING
SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. AT
LEAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE MEAGER.
SOME SUBTLE VEERING IN FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST POSITIVE THETAE ADVECTION TO WORK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN OHIO/NORTHEAST INDIANA. WITH SOME
BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WEAK SHORT
WAVES TO ROTATE AROUND PARENT CUT-OFF CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH
CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT LOW END SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY SOUTHEAST.
GIVEN SUCH A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WITH GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD DRY. WEAK GRADIENT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT WEAK LAKE BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON.

DID MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE POSSIBLY ALLOWING WEAK
COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODERATING TREND STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH WITH MORE
PROMINENCE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES OF AFOREMENTIONED CUT OFF PV
ANOMALY/GREATER CLOUD COVER...AND A BIT MORE SUBDUED MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WARMING TREND MAY BE A BIT TEMPERED. WEAK STEERING FLOW TO
CONTINUE NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME INDICATIONS IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE-TOPPING WAVE JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. OTHERWISE...PATTERN DOES SEEM SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS GIVEN EXPECTED PROXIMITY OF WEAK BOUNDARY
WASHING OUT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL FEATURE SLOWLY IMPROVING MVFR
CEILINGS WITHIN STRONG POST FRONTAL INVERSION. MAY SEE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE IMPACT MAINLY KFWA THROUGH MID-LATE
AFTERNOON ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING DEFORMATION AXIS. DRY OTHERWISE
WITH WINDS NORTHEASTERLY 7-15 KNOTS (GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON).


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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