Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 260953
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
553 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR SPREADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL ONLY BE AROUND 50 DEGREES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
WELL INLAND SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO MID 70S. CHILLY
CANADIAN AIR WILL CAUSE LOWS TONIGHT TO FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE
40S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 30S IN SPOTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED OUT OF INDIANA AND SHOULD CLEAR NORTHWEST
OHIO BY DAYBREAK. THESE STORMS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAD DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED. AT 4 AM EDT... A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND HAD COME ON SHORE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THE MARINE AIR WHERE WATER TEMPS
WERE NEAR 40 DEGREES ACCORDING TO THE MID LAKE BUOY WAS HELPING TO
ACCENTUATE THE FRONT. THE TEMPERATURE AT GARY INDIANA DROPPED 24
DEGREES IN ONE HOUR AFTER PASSAGE. HAVE ADDED SOME AREAS OF FOG OVER
MAINLY LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND BEHIND THE FRONT. VISIBILITIES HAD FALLEN TO A
QUARTER OF A MILE BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT
6 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
LOWER MICHIGAN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING AS A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA...VERY DRY AND CHILLY AIR
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AS LOW AS
THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR
HILLSDALE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FOCUS TONIGHT ON NEAR
TERM WEATHER AND RADAR. A COUPLE MAIN SHORT WAVES STILL LOOK TO
IMPACT THE AREA WITH THE FIRST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
SECOND OVER THE WEEKEND. A BIT CONCERNED WITH HIGH PCPN CHANCES WED
INTO THU GIVEN RATHER STOUT EASTERLY WIND AND SFC LOW TRACKING SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WILL SEE IF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT OVER BOUNDARY
CAN OVERCOME DRY LOWER LEVELS AND EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES. MAINTAINED
GOING POPS WITH SUPERBLEND INIT. SHOULD BE A COOL PERIOD WITH CLOUDS
AND EASTERLY FLOW.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE FRIDAY TO KEEP THINGS DRY BUT NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FOR WEEKEND WITH DRAWN OUT CHANCES FOR PCPN WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY
WITH STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN PRESENT AND QUESTIONS ON TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM. OTHERWISE SUPERBLEND INIT USED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICH AND LAKE MICHIGAN
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NW INDIANA AND THE SBN TERMINAL AS THE
COMBINATION OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE COLD MARINE
LAYER ACCENTUATE THE FRONT. ADDED LOW IFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTH
BEND THIS MORNING FOR THESE CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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