Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 242103
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
403 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 DEGREES. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

EXTREME PRESSURE RISE CENTROID ON ORDER OF 7-8MB/3 HR LIFTING NWD
THROUGH NRN/NERN CWA ATTM. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE /NOTABLY
PROVIDING 12-16F/3 HR TEMP DROP/ AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OF
0-1 KM LYR AS DEEPER COLD AIR PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH CWA...WL
ALLOW WIND HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AT 00 UTC...WITH STILL NMRS 40-55
MPH GUSTS PAST 90 MINUTES...THOUGH CONCEDE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH REMAINING FEW HOURS. HEIGHTENED MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
COINCIDENT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHED WELL NORTH OF CWA...WCNTL
MI TRAILING INTO SRN WI. STILL ANTICIPATE NWRN CWA ALONG LEADING
EDGE AS FEATURE PIVOTS PRIOR TO NE EJECTION FOR SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT OF SHSN...WITH ONLY MINOR LOW POP/COVERAGE ELSEWHERE
PRIMARILY ASSOCD WITH ENHANCED POCKETS OF CAA AS DRY SLOT
PRESENCE TO REMAIN LARGE/MITIGATING FACTOR. TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND
SPCLY 12-15 UTC SOME MINOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUPPORTIVE OF HIR
POPS THOUGH LOW QPF/ACCUMS EXPECTED. LK/8H DELTA T IN 15-17C
RANGE WITH MUTED LK INDUCED CAPE /LTE 250 J/KG/ AND LK INDUCED
EQL CAPPED TO THE 5-6 KFT AGL RANGE...PER BLEND OF KSBN/KLWA 4KM
NAM SOUNDINGS. LACK OF SUPERSATURATION WITHIN SHALLOW/DISJOINTED
DGZ TO FURTHER PROVIDE PUTRID SNOW EFFICIENCIES. MINOR CHANGES TO
TEMPS WITH LITTLE DIURNAL RISE RESPONSE EXPECTED TUE WITH MAX T
SOME 20-27F COLDER OVR MON MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLD AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. THE PATTERN IS FAST MOVING AND THE MODELS VARY IN THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE INCOMING WAVES FOR MIDWEEK.
REGARDLESS THE CONTINUED SURGE OF REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL KEEP
SKIES OVERCAST WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLIPPER SYSTEM EXISTS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER FAST WARMUP FRIDAY-SUNDAY. AGAIN...MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT
DIVERGENT IN ABSOLUTE SOLUTIONS FOR THE COMING WEEKEND...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO EJECT A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER RAINFALL EVENT
BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MODERATE RAINFALL. AS
WITH THIS PAST WEEKENDS EVENT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE THERMAL
STRUCTURE WILL SUPPORT ALL RAIN. IN KEEPING WITH
CONSISTENCY...HAVE KEPT A MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REPEATING PATTERN...COLD AIR
WILL CHARGE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THE
PATTERN IS TOO SIMILAR TO BE IGNORED AND HAVE KEPT WITH THE MODEL
OUTPUT OF COOLER LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

PRONOUNCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 01Z WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO OVER 40 KNOTS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL
LINGER THROUGH 04Z BEFORE ABATING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SATURATED IN THE
DEFORMATION AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THIS HAS
TURNED...OR WILL TURN LIQUID PRECIP TO FROZEN QUICKLY. LIGHT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND CIGS WILL REMAIN AT IFR WITH ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS.

AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE...HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE IFR CIGS PERSISTING
THROUGH END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ007>009-
     016>018-022>027-032>034.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>006-012>015-020.

MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ081.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...LEWIS


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