Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 300803
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
303 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A few light, widely scattered showers are possible early this
morning through early afternoon as a shortwave trough heads east
southeast across portions of southern KS and southeast Missouri. Any
precipitation amounts should be fairly light in our CWA, and should
be confined to areas southwest of the KC metro. By early to mid
afternoon, a decent push of dry air between 700-500 mb will head
southward, cutting off precipitation chances and eroding cloud cover
from north to south. Temperatures are still expected to rise into
the lower 80s this afternoon, but highs may be reached a bit later
in the day as cloud cover diminishes.

Synoptic models continue to produce spurious convection through the
week as a series of weak shortwave troughs dip southeastward, but a
fairly deep layer of very dry air entrenched across the region
should keep precipitation chances very minimal. Have kept a dry
forecast from this evening through early next week, when the pattern
finally starts to change. Continued northwest flow aloft will keep
temperatures several degrees below normal this week through the
weekend, holding high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and lows
in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The upper trough over the Great Lakes will eventually depart early
next week, allowing ridging to shift eastward across the Plains and
southerly flow to return at low levels. This should allow slightly
warmer temperatures and higher low-level moisture to be ushered back
into the region, slightly raising the chance for precipitation with
any systems that traverse the CWA. Currently, long-range models
drape a nearly stationary surface boundary near or slightly north of
the CWA Tuesday into Tuesday night, and allow this feature to sink
southward with time. Have added some lower-end PoPs for the end of
the forecast period Tuesday night through Wednesday, but timing and
position of any storm chances will need to be refined more in future
forecast issuances.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period at MCI/MKC. Have continued
brief period of MVFR visibility at STJ as warm water temperatures may
allow for shallow river fog to develop prior to sunrise. A few cu may
persist after sunset with some increase in mid-level clouds during
the morning hours. Winds will generally be northerly, with some
variability in direction.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair







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