Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KEAX 271758

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1158 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

Issued at 354 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

Wintry precipitation continues to be the main concern today through
tonight, as a cold front departs to the southeast and light to
moderate rain now surging up from the southwest moves over
subfreezing surface and near-surface temperatures. Freezing rain
remains the most likely candidate for precipitation type due to the
stout warm nose centered around 850 hPa; however, quickly falling
temperatures around 1000 ft above the ground could allow rain to
partially or fully re-freeze before hitting the ground, which
introduces a potential for some sleet to mix in with the freezing
rain and potentially reduce ice accumulations. As a result, have
calculated ice accumulations to be a bit lower than the overall
QPF even in areas that will be below freezing throughout the
period, and general amounts are between a few hundredths near the KC
metro up to greater than a tenth of an inch of ice in east central
KS. Will stick with the freezing rain advisory in areas where
additional ice accumulation is expected since icing of roads and
other surfaces will be the main concern, but some more mixed
precipitation could sneak in at any time today.

Precipitation will gradually diminish from northwest to southeast as
the elevated front drifts to the southeast and upper forcing departs
to the northeast, but may linger near the stalled surface boundary
in central MO through Saturday. Temperatures will begin to warm as
flow becomes more southwesterly off the surface and surface cold air
advection decreases, hopefully ending the possibility of icing after
Saturday morning. The cut-off low that was left behind by our
current system will then lift out of the Southwest on Sunday and
into Monday, raising the potential for rain showers once again late
Saturday night through Tuesday. Blended model temperatures were a
little chilly Saturday night and did not want subfreezing temps
coincident with precipitation chances, so have raised lows above
model consensus on Saturday night.

Quieter conditions and gradually warming temperatures are expected
in the long-range forecast period after the upper low departs.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

Low level stratus will likely stick around for the remainder of the
forecast period, bouncing between IFR and MVFR for periods. Light
freezing rain will persist through the next several hours, but might
go away by this evening, leaving off and on freezing drizzle for the
overnight hours and early morning hours on Saturday. Visibility, like
ceilings, will vary between MVFR and VFR, so tempo groups will likely
be needed for the next several hours to capture the frequently
fluctuating conditions.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for KSZ025-057-

     Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ057-060.

MO...Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for MOZ012-013-

     Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ038>040-043>046-053-054.



AVIATION...Leighton is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.