Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 290849
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
349 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around rainfall falling
overnight and the river and flash flooding that has or is occurring.
Through 3AM...radar is estimating 3 to 5 inches of precip has fallen
across portions of northern Missouri this has caused areas of flash
flooding along and north of Highway 36. This has also caused several
local areas, creeks and streams to flood across northern Missouri.
Fortunately, the heavy rain has shifted south towards the I-70
corridor and south of those areas that have received the heaviest
rainfall. This rainfall has come courtesy of a cold front sinking
south through the area this morning. This cold front will continue
to sink south this morning, clearing the southern CWA around
sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to sink south
behind this front and will diminish by mid-morning. There will be the
potential for addition light showers across the southern CWA during
the day as an elevated front will remain over the area. Otherwise,
conditions should remain dry and much more pleasant today as surface
high pressure builds into the area. Expect highs in the mid 80s.

High pressure will remain in control tonight through Friday keep
conditions dry with seasonable highs mid 80s to near 90 on Thursday
and Friday.

Friday night we being to undergo a pattern change from a zonal
pattern where an upper level ridge of high pressure covering much of
the southern CONUS begins to retreat back to western CONUS and
begins to build. This will lead to a more amplified pattern where
strong upper level ridging will reside out west with upper level
troughing across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Locally, we
will be under northwest flow. Models suggest several shortwaves will
move through the area on northwest flow bringing several chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning early Saturday morning and
continuing into the middle of next week. This pattern will also
provide for near normal temperature this weekend through the mid of
next week with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Convection across northern Missouri is not making southern progress
as quickly as anticipated, so have bumped back the timing of arrival
into the terminals. That being said, the chances for the KC terminals
to see thunderstorm activity is are a bit lower than considered
earlier. Same goes for KSTJ, where storms are a bit more likely to
affect the terminals. Due to low confidence of T-storm development at
the terminals, went with VCTS and TEMPO to cover that concern. By or
shortly after sunrise expect T-storms to end with mid level clouds
remaining through the afternoon and evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Leighton



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