Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 172013
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
313 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 307 PM CDT MON APR 17 2017

Pleasant conditions will continue through the evening as a
remnant surface high continues to push eastward of the local
area. Veering surface winds will ultimately become southwesterly
by Tuesday afternoon, bringing a return of increased low level
moisture ahead of the next storm system. A shortwave trough
currently approaching western Montana will lift into the Great
Lakes by tomorrow afternoon. This will form a stacked surface low
well north of the area, though its attendant cold front will enter
southeastern Nebraska during the afternoon hours. Ahead of this
feature, a weakening low level jet will clip northwestern Missouri
within the warm sector of the advancing cold front. While the front
will eventually stall near the MO/IA border, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are possible within the warm sector ahead
of the approaching frontal boundary, mainly north of the Missouri
River. Weakening wind fields aloft should limit the overall severe
threat, though a few strong to marginally severe storms are
possible across northwest Missouri. The primary hazards will
include large hail and strong winds, particularly during peak
heating, across northwest Missouri.

A more pronounced upper wave will then enter the Central Plains
Wednesday afternoon. This feature will form leeside surface low
pressure by the mid morning hours across southwestern Nebraska. The
track of this surface low in conjunction with the placement of the
aforementioned stalled frontal boundary near the MO/IA border will
play a critical role in the potential for a few tornadoes across
northern Missouri Wednesday afternoon. Current guidance suggests
that this boundary remains north of northern Missouri, though should
it stall slightly further south, adequate turning in the lower
levels could support a few tornadoes across areas north of Highway
36. The other more certain potential will come in the form a storms
ahead of and along the cold front later Wednesday night. At that
time, the upper wave will continue to lift northeast, which will
push the cold front through northwest Missouri after midnight on
Wednesday. Primary hazards along the cold front will include large
hail and strong winds. However, depending on the southern extent
of storms during the daytime, severe potential may be somewhat
hindered.

Surface temperatures will continue to increase with persistent warm
advection, rising into the lower to perhaps mid 80s by Wednesday.
Dry conditions will then return briefly Thursday as the upper
pattern resets for a late week/early weekend event. During that
time, the upper level jet will take a southward dive, which will
permit an abrupt swing in temperatures by the late week with values
possibly remaining in the 50s by Friday. The main impact during this
time will be in the form of potential rising river and stream levels
as a surface low treks well south of the area underneath a dynamic
system aloft. This will provide a multi-day period of potentially
heavy rain, which may impact primed surfaces from storms earlier
in the week.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT MON APR 17 2017

VFR conditions will persist through the remainder of Monday with
steady winds out of the southeast. Low level cloud cover will then
return to the area late tonight into early Tuesday morning ahead
of the next storm system. Expecting to see MVFR ceilings by 12Z as
winds become more southerly. Precip chances should hold off until
Tuesday afternoon, though at this time coverage looks to be fairly
isolated to scattered.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh



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