Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 291951
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
251 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017
Issued at 251 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017
Areas of rain showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to
lift northeast across the region, in an area of strong isentropic
ascent and high precipitable water. A brief break is possible
between the strongest isentropic lift this evening and a pre-
frontal trough/weak LLJ that will push up to near the KS/MO border
just before sunrise Sunday, but total rainfall amounts are still
expected to exceed 3 inches across southeastern portions of the
forecast area and near 2 inches from the KC metro northeastward.
Although rainfall has been relatively steady, the higher amounts
have resulted in areal and river flooding especially south of
Highway 50, which will be exacerbated by additional rainfall this
evening and again tomorrow, so have kept the Flash Flood Watch in
effect through tomorrow.
A dry slot will move into the region by late morning Sunday,
allowing for a few small, brief breaks in the stratus and a wind
shift to the south, bringing temperatures into the upper 50s to
perhaps even mid 60s across central MO. Additional light rain will
sweep through at least the northwestern quadrant of the forecast
area on the back side of the surface low Sunday night, then the
system will gradually depart Monday morning.
The next chance for precipitation will come Tuesday night and
Wednesday as another trough swings through the region. This system
will not be nearly as robust until it is past our area, and the
heaviest precipitation will stay near the surface low which should
pass south of the CWA.
In general, at least slightly below normal temperatures are
expected through the forecast period with a southerly position of
the upper jet and several systems bringing colder air aloft into
the Plains and Midwest. Warmer conditions may be on the way just
beyond the end of the forecast period.
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017
Rain showers and occasionally embedded thunderstorms will continue
to impact all TAF sites this afternoon and evening. Ceilings will
bounce around between IFR, MVFR, and very briefly VFR as bases
vary below the showers. IFR will finally begin to prevail this
evening and will continue through the rest of the night as both
ceilings and visibilities fall. A break in rain is possible
between 03z and somewhere in the 09z-12z range, which may allow
thicker fog to develop prior to sunrise, then additional rain will
move back in by 12z. Winds will be breezy out of the northeast,
then will transition to the south as clearing moves in toward the
end of the TAF period.
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KSZ057-060.
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MOZ031>033-038>040-