Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 162331
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A potential for a hard freeze on Monday with low temperatures
  in the low to mid 20s

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

The current pattern in the mid to upper levels over CONUS shows a
large closed low pressure system over the Nevada/Arizona border.
There is decent shortwave ridging upstream of our region with with
westerly mid to upper level flow over the region. There is some
significant troughing, with some jet support, to the north of the
area over the Great Lakes helping to push a surface front over the
area tonight.

This evening, skies are expected to remain fairly clear as we stay
upstream of the ridge. As the surface front moves through overnight,
low temperatures tonight are anticipated to get into the upper 30s
with radiational cooling due to weaker winds and clear skies. Sunday
morning, the troughing to the north will begin to dip further south
and push the ridging to our west further south. The pressure
gradient will strengthen with troughing moving further south,
resulting in winds occasionally gusting as high as 20-25 miles per
hour with diurnal mixing. Some fire weather concerns exist for
Northwest Missouri with RH values getting into the low 30s. The
biggest threat comes as the associated surface boundary shifts winds
to the northwest dropping temperatures into the mid 20s Sunday night
into Monday. Measures should be taken to protect sensitive
vegetation. Temperatures for Monday night into early Tuesday morning
are expected to be right around freezing for most areas.

By Tuesday, significant ridging builds in from the western edge of
Canada over the cut off low pressure system over Nevada/Arizona
forming a rex block pattern over Western CONUS . Another shortwave
trough passes through the area with the associated surface front
shifting winds back to the northwest. This will result in more high
temperatures in the 60s. The rest of the period seems very calm.
There looks like a very slim chance for precipitation to return on
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Breezy VFR conditions are expected for much of the forecast
period.

Sky coverage will gradually decrease through
the evening with only some SCT clouds Sunday. Gusty northwest
winds dissipate overnight before accelerating during the morning
hours. Gusts above 20 knots are expected Sunday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Pesel


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