Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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947
FXUS63 KEAX 232320
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
520 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 400 PM CST THU NOV 23 2017

Locally, across eastern Kansas and northern Missouri, it`s a lovely
Thanksgiving Day! Satellite imagery highlights a ridge to the west,
with some high clouds spilling over the top of it into the Northern
Plains as a shortwave trough in the Pacific Northwest begins to move
to crest said ridge axis. Closer to home, the surface high, that
brought cool temperatures for Wednesday, has moved to our east and
given way to southerly winds and warming temperatures. The warming
trend will persist into the day Friday with help from the Pacific
Northwest trough which will drag a dry, weak, cold front through the
region Friday night. Expectations are for a decent amount of warm
air advection and  and mixing ahead of the front Friday, with current
model timing indicates the front settling south across the region
Friday afternoon, giving the region a good opportunity to see
afternoon highs reach into the lower 70s Friday before the cooler
northerly winds move in, knocking temperatures back into the 50s to
low 60s for the weekend.

Otherwise for Friday...the dry and windy conditions ahead of the
front --expected Friday afternoon-- will likely heighten fire weather
concerns for the day. Given the pre-frontal boundary layer mixing,
expect surface winds to be from the southwest at 15 to 20 MPH with
gusts over 35 MPH for the early afternoon hours. These winds in
combination with afternoon minimum humidity values --likely between
30% and 40%-- will make it difficult to control any outdoor burning
being conducted.

Early next work week...models continue to struggle with which
solution they prefer as multiple ensemble and operational point at a
progressive trough moving east across the Plains States Monday
through Wednesday, generating some precipitation along the way.
However, the extent that the trough cuts off from the prevailing
westerlies, and the knock on effects for the timing of the trough,
have left confidence in the forecast in these outer periods rather
poor. Currently the GFS continues to be the faster solution, but
it`s trend has been towards those offered by the ECMWF. Thus, the
outer periods of Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday look to warrant a
passing slight chance to chance for showers as a weak warm front
will likely lift ahead of the trough as the larger parent trough
moves east across the Plains States. With that said, have bumped
both temperatures and winds for Monday a little ahead of the
expected system and left the POPs in place for Tuesday afternoon
into Wednesday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 520 PM CST THU NOV 23 2017

Main concerns through this forecast will be winds as only high
level clouds will move through the region. Light winds overnight
will increase in the morning and become gusty by the afternoon.
Winds will generally be from the south-southwest and by the
afternoon may be in the 15 to 20 kt sustained range with stronger
gusts. A front will move through late in the period and will shift
winds to the northwest, likely after the end of this forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...CDB



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