Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 280440
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1140 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Short Term (Tonight through Wednesday):

Cooler weather is on the way as a cold front is currently making its
way through the through the CWA. It is extending from Lamoni, Iowa
down to Emporia, Kansas this afternoon and will continue to move
southeast through the forecast area this evening. Showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms has developed across the southeastern CWA
where shower chances will continue this evening before shifting
south of the CWA with the cold front. Strong cold air advection will
be ongoing behind the front and lows tonight will be nearly 20
degrees cooler than last night with lows in the lower 40s to near
50. The upper level trough associated with the cold front will move
through the area tomorrow and temperatures will be much cooler but,
near normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The main
concern in the short term will come Tuesday night when high pressure
builds into the area providing for good radiational cooling. This
will lead overnight lows to drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s and
the potential for patchy frost across northern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas. High pressure will remain over the area on
Wednesday with copious sunshine and modest height rises, highs will
again be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. High pressure will shift
eastward Wednesday night with flow returning to the south. This will
help keep lows in the 40s.

Long Term (Thursday through Monday):

The beginning of the extended looks dry as a cold front will
move through the area on Thursday. Models do try and spit out a few
showers with the frontal passage but dry air in the lower levels
should preclude any measurable moisture. Highs will be in the 60s.
Temperatures will then turn cooler for Friday and Saturday with
highs in the lower 50s to near 60. However, what is of bigger
concern is the potential for the first freeze of the season Friday
night into Saturday morning. The model blend has provided for below
freezing temperatures across the northeastern CWA with lows around
30, the rest of the CWA has initialized with lows in the low to mid
30s providing for widespread frost. Of note is that the GFS and EC
are significantly cooler than the initialization which may be
contaminated by the much warmer GEM. In any case, lows may be even
cooler than forecast and will have to be monitored for potential
freeze warning conditions in future forecast issuances.

Sunday will bring the next chance for showers as an upper level
trough moves from the central Rockies into the northern plans and
pushes a cold front toward the area. With the upper level trough
continuing to move to the northeast into southern Canada by Monday
night, the better forcing for the cold front will be well north of
the area. This will lead to slow cold frontal passage and continued
chances for showers Sunday night into Monday. Highs Sunday and
Monday will be near normal in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. High level clouds
will eventually clear out leading to clear skies for much of Tuesday
and Tuesday evening. Winds are also expected to decrease through the
rest of the night with winds around 10kt from the west through
Tuesday evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB






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