Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 221802
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1202 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 321 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

A upper level trough is moving across the Red River Valley this
morning and will continue to move east across southern Arkansas
today. Moisture is streaming north ahead of this system this morning
continuing showers that began last night. Shower are expected to
continue through this morning and perhaps linger into early this
afternoon as this system moves by to the south. Models are
indicating a deformation type band setting up across the area along
a 700mb front and it is along this front precipitation will be
focused. But again, precipitation will come to an end early his
afternoon. However, cloudy skies will prevail throughout the day and
with CAA, high temperatures will only achieve the upper 30s to upper
40s. Tonight, fog again may become an issue especially across the
western CWA where skies are expected to clear and winds will become
light as surface high pressure moves into the area. Surface high
pressure will dominate the area Monday as upper level ridging builds
across the region in response to a trough digging down the West
Coast. Expect highs in the 40s on Monday.

The aforementioned West Coast trough moves into the Plains on
Tuesday forcing a cold front into the eastern Plains by Tuesday
afternoon. Temperatures should warm nicely across the area ahead of
the front with modest WAA. Expect highs Tuesday to range from the
upper 40s across the north where showers will be possible beginning
early in the day to the lower 60s across the south. Rain showers
will overspread most of the CWA Tuesday afternoon and continue into
Tuesday night with the highest PoPs across the northern CWA. Some
rain may mix with or change over to snow across the northern CWA
early Wednesday morning and continue through the morning hours.
Temperatures on Wednesday across the northern CWA will range from
the low to mid 30s so any accumulation looks to be minimal at this
time. Elsewhere across the CWA, highs will range from the upper 30s
to lower 40s with rain the predominant p-type through the period.
Precipitation will exit the area Wednesday night as the upper level
trough shifts into the Great Lakes region. This will leave the area
under cold northwest flow aloft through the remainder of the work
week keeping temperatures cool. Highs Thursday through Saturday will
be in the 30s to near 40 however, conditions will remain dry.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

Trick in the short term is how the stratus works its way into the
area. KSTJ has been IFR for a couple hours now, but upstream CIGs
are a bit higher. Went ahead and kept them MVFR, but could go IFR
for a short time. Then the improvement overnight could lead to
some brief fog in the morning. SREF guidance wasn`t overly
convincing, but with the surface ridge moving over head, clear
skies, felt that the set up was fairly conducive to some light
fog. Could see some brief periods of IFR VIS within the longer
duration MVFR/VFR fog.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Leighton


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