Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 220918
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
418 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 414 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

Satellite imagery this morning shows a rather flat pattern in
place across the Nation, with Tropical Storm Cindy noted making
land fall on the Gulf Coast along the TX/LA border. Looking back
to the north a sizable trough is moving east across Canada, with
the resulting lee side troughing inducing a surface low across
western Nebraska with a frontal boundary extending east along the
Nebraska South Dakota border.

For today...there is not much to forecast besides temperatures as it
will be another hot day across the central Plains. Southerly
winds and prefrontal compressional heating, ahead of the front to
our north, will keep temperatures hot across our section of the
country; and moisture streaming north form the Gulf, and TS
Cindy, will make it humid. This will result in another muggy day
with heat indices likely bubbling through the mid to upper 90s
this afternoon. However, there is relief from heat and humidity in
sight as the trough moving east across Canada will shove the
frontal boundary to our north south later tonight and through
Friday. this will bring some cooler air to the region, which will
persist through the weekend, along with a chance for thunderstorms
late tonight into the early Friday morning hours. Current model
solutions don`t advertise much activity in our section of
Missouri, or any in Kansas, as the front may be rather capped off
the farther southwest you go. This leaves areas of north central
into northeast Missouri with the best chance for storms late
tonight as the nocturnal jet, sinking cold front, and eastward
moving Canadian trough interact. Given the time of day, late at
night, that the front will move through, expectations are that
there will only be a minimal chance for any strong or severe
storms.

Rest of Friday and through the weekend...it should be rather nice.
The front that will sweep south Friday morning will usher in below
normal temperatures with highs bubbling through the 70s and lower
80s Friday through Monday as a trough carves out a space for
itself across the Plains through early next week. This will also
keep the region mostly dry outside a fleeting chance of storms
late Sunday night into Monday morning as another little shortwave
rotates through the base of the trough late in the weekend.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. A thunderstorm
cluster in northern KS/southern NE that is slowly tracking to the
east/southeast is expected dissipate with only some very light
lingering showers possible making it into northwestern MO tomorrow
morning. Otherwise, the front that should be the focus for
additional showers and storms late in this forecast or with the
12Z issuance, should stay north of the terminals through 06Z. So
have kept this forecast dry. As mentioned, some mention of
showers/storms may be needed with the 12Z forecast for late in the
forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...CDB



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