Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 271737

1237 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Issued at 320 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

With northwest flow prevailing over the region through the weekend,
there will be several shortwave troughs moving through the flow that
will bring us several rounds of weather. On the heels of the wave
currently moving through, another and potentially stronger wave will
slide southeast through the region tonight. Given more widespread
but still light accumulating precip this morning, and that tonight`s
wave looks stronger, have increased PoPs substantially across much
of the forecast area. Temperatures should also be colder and this
may bring some light accumulations, less than half an inch, to parts
of northern/northeastern Missouri into central Missouri.

Another upper level shortwave trough will move through the region
late Saturday night and into the day Sunday. By this time,
temperatures will be much warmer so the potential for snow is nil,
but there should be at least scattered showers across the area
through the morning and daytime hours on Sunday.

Shortwave ridging should spread over the region Monday into Tuesday,
allowing for a nice warm up into the 70s. But another strong
northern stream storm system will track across the northern Plains
and Upper Midwest, trailing a cold front into the area on Wednesday.
Based on the latest model trends, this front should arrive later in
the day, after peak heating, allowing for temperatures to climb into
the mid to perhaps upper 70s ahead of the front. Very warm
temperatures aloft coupled with good southwesterly winds and modest
mixing ahead of the front will all aid in the warm pre-frontal
conditions. While there will be some instability across the area
ahead of the front, the best dynamics will occur behind the front
and as a result, the chances for severe storms looks rather low at
this point. But models do depict a decent amount of QPF so hopefully
we can get some widespread moderate rainfall to eat into the
precipitation deficits we`ve racked up so far this year.

Above normal temperatures should persist through the end of the
week. Models vary on the next chance for precipitation but the
active pattern may continue Thursday night into Friday. The ECMWF
shows a modest low pressure system tracking through the region with
ample QPF across the area. The GFS is slower and more southerly with
this low bring its greatest precip amounts to southern Missouri.
Overall, didn`t change much from the forecast initialization and
have maintained the chance PoPs for this period of time.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR conds will cont thru tonight. However, after midnight, model
soundings indicate that a narrow band of light snow will develop. At
this time, models suggest the better chance for pcpn to remain east
of the terminals however, just a slight shift to the west and pcpn
will be poss at the terminals. Also of concern, is that sounding
profiles show moisture in the dendritic snow growth zone and the
profile below freezing with the exception of just a shallow layer
near the surface. This would for provide for pcpn to be in the form
of snow. Since the best potential for snow looks to be east of the
terminals at this time have opted for VCSH mention in the TAF btn
07Z-11Z. Otrw...expect ovc stratus around 5kft overnight. Cigs will
then sct out tomorrow morning. Winds will be out of the north this
afternoon before becmg light and vrb this evening. Winds will then
pick back up out of the SE btn 10-15kts after midnight.




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