Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 201138
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
638 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 325 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2017

Upper-level low continues to spin across the central High Plains
this morning, with attendant sfc low slowly lifting north through
eastern Kansas. Rain shield out ahead of this feature gradually
moving east through the forecast area this morning, with mainly
light to occasionally moderate rains noted on area observations.
Considering the transient nature of this rainfall and little
expectations for additional heavy rains this morning, have elected
to let the flash flood watch go a few hours early. Rain should
continue moving east this morning with mostly dry conditions
expected through the day with highs warming into the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

High pressure to slowly settle south over the region on Sunday
which will yield a fine end to the weekend as highs again
climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Next chance for rain
expected to arrive during the day on Monday when modest return
flow moisture begins to interact with a weak cold front expected
to approach from the northwest. Overall severe threat looks
marginal as best shortwave energy and associated wind fields
remain to our north and instability remains fairly weak. Behind
this feature, expect below normal temperatures by midweek as broad
upper troughing prevails over the Central U.S. with arriving
surface high pressure ensuring cold air advection across the
Nation`s Heartland. Temperatures should begin to recover by week`s
end as ridging builds overhead and southerly winds return to the
area. Overall, a fairly quiet week sensible weatherwise...

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2017

Brief period of IFR cigs possible this morning as a low band of
clouds currently over the TOP area slowly drifts east. Overall
confidence in this scenario is just high enough to warrant a
three hour tempo mention from 12-15z. Otherwise, MVFR cigs to
redevelop this morning with these trends continuing through early
afternoon. Steady improvement expected though the latter half of
the day with VFR then expected through the duration of the fcst
period. Winds will continue to shift to the west through the day
with speeds generally in the 10-15 kt range.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32



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