Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 052201
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
401 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Short Term (Tonight - Sunday):

Shortwave trough moving down into eastern NE will track southeast
and through the CWA overnight. A generous supply of mid/high clouds
will overspread the region. An area of snow which formed ahead of a
separate h7 vorticity max will advance eastward with the southern
edge skirting across the far northern tier of counties. Progged
soundings reveal the snow will be battling a very desert-like sub-
cloud airmass. So, snow amounts will be quite light. Further south
where above freezing temperatures are noted some sprinkles are
possible over west central MO. By mid/late evening most if not all
of the precipitation should have evaporated.

Otherwise, clouds will clear from west to east Saturday morning
with shortwave ridging quickly moving in across the plains. Should
see some modest warming with max temperatures well into the 40s.

Medium/Long Term (Sunday night - Friday):

Fast on the heels of Saturday`s deamplifying shortwave ridge is
a fast moving shortwave trough that will quickly amplify/deepen
Sunday night into Monday in response to a couple of upper level speed
maxima in excess of 100kt. The resulting amplified flow will tap
into a very cold airmass over northern and central Canada. Blended
forecast has trended colder and believe it may not be cold enough.
Have gone a bit below guidance for Monday min/max temperatures,
especially considering extensive stratus cloud cover and the
likelihood of flurries/snow showers.

Fortunately, the cold shot looks of short duration as temperatures
should begin to moderate by mid-week as the Canadian high pressure
moves east of the CWA. Thinking close to seasonal values by
Wednesday, then a bit of warm air advection to get us into the 40s.
After Monday night the rest of the forecast looks dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Southern edge of area of snow over southeast NE/western IA continues
to erode as it moves east. Think this trend will continue as the band
moves across far northwest and north central MO this afternoon.
Little if any snow accumulation expected. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will continue as a weak wind shift line passes across western MO late
this evening. Could see some sprinkles/flurries near this boundary
but again no accumulations expected.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ


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