000
FXUS63 KEAX 162340
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
640 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Windy conditions will continue through the next several hours ahead
of an advancing cold front that will arrive across NW MO early this
evening. Wind advisory is in good shape, and thus far red flag
conditions have been avoided thus far thanks to dewpoints holding in
the upper 20s to lower 30s. Both headlines will remain active through
expected expiration times of 7PM unless conditions improve by 23Z.

Per visible satellite imagery, post-frontal cloud cover across
Kansas and srn Nebraska is diurnal in nature, and should dissipate
with sunset, leaving a rather unassuming frontal passage. Winds will
shift into the northwest later this evening, but the gusty winds
presently observed behind the boundary will largely diminish due to
decoupling and a gradual relaxation of the surface pressure gradient.
Nonetheless, colder air will steadily filter into the area, with a
lot of bottom room given the ambient dewpoints.

For Thursday, banded cloud cover should begin to spread into the srn
zones tomorrow morning as mid level frontogenesis intensifies ahead
of a broader mid level trough and attendant jet streak at its base.
Deep layer RH is rather paltry in the wake of tonight`s frontal
passage, but enough baroclinity exists within the narrow zone of
ascent to force out a band of very light rain across the southern and
eastern half of the area (west central and central MO primarily)
during the late morning and afternoon. Compared to the foot of snow
the GFS was predicting back 4-5 days ago, the word "event" would
largely oversell the couple hundredths of an inch of rain forecast.
Temperatures will struggle to reach the 50-55 range most areas.

For Friday into early next week, promising changes are coming for
gardeners and Spring enthusiasts. The overall pattern is expected to
become largely zonal in nature, mixed with periods of subtropical
ridging as the primary jet axis shifts along the US-Canadian border.
The only period of inclement weather remains associated with a slow
moving mid level cyclone that will reach the area on Sunday. We
should see a prolonged period of above normal temperatures,
especially heading into next week.

With respect to Sunday, have sided with the ECMWF which suggests that
a strong EML will spread northeast through the Plains on the backside
of a pronounced shortwave ridge across the lower-mid Mississippi
Valley regions. This scenario would delay the arrival of the upstream
trough and keep the area capped to convection until later in the
day/evening -- a far different scenario than the much wetter GFS. The
focus for convection will be mainly driven by mid level cooling
associated with the actual trough, given the weaker surface
reflection and poor wind profiles through the entire troposphere. For
now, expect some elevated convection to possibly clip the NW CWA late
Saturday night and Sunday morning, with a warm and increasingly humid
day Sunday, giving way to scattered showers/storms in the afternoon
and evening. Poor kinematic setup would suggest strong/severe weather
is unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A dry cold front will pass through northwest MO and northeast KS
early this evening and put an end to the very strong and gusty south-
southwest winds. Northwest winds will be gusty for a few hours after
the front passes through. They will weaken by late evening as the
pressure and thermal gradients relax. A mix of mid and high level
ceilings are expected.

Light rain may spread into parts of east central KS and west central
MO Thursday afternoon but likely remain just south of KMCI/KMKC.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

     WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bookbinder
AVIATION...MJ