Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 292110
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
410 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 409 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

Tail end of August continues to look rather wet, at least for the
next couple of days. Scattered thunderstorms are bubbling up today
across the region as the boundary layer heats up and reaches the
convective temperature. Thus far, the lack of organizing shear has
meant that storms this afternoon are going up and raining themselves
out, pushing out a little outflow boundary that helps the next set
of storms to get going. Expectations for the rest of the afternoon
are that much of the bubbling activity will subside as the sun sets
and we lose our insolation. However, stepping back to look at the
bigger picture, a shortwave trough is noted exiting the Four Corners
region northeast into the Central Plains today, which will help focus
the nocturnal jet across central Kansas with a notable warm air wing
of convection expected to lift north through northern Missouri
overnight.

For Tonight...scattered thunderstorms are expected to persist well
into the overnight hour with the help of persistent warm air
advection. Current set of model runs, plus satellite and radar data,
all point at the bubbling afternoon storms fading out this evening
with remnant storms congealing into a small complex in southeast
Nebraska. With precipitable water values running around 2 inches, and
0-6KM shear values topping out between 15 and 20 knots, expectations
are that the advertised activity for overnight would be favorable for
flash flooding up across extreme northeast Kansas into far Northwest
Missouri as any storms tonight will be efficient rain makers. As a
result, have issued a flash flood watch for parts of extreme
northeast Kansas and far northwest Missouri to go tonight through the
day Tuesday.

Speaking of Tuesday...storms may be ongoing Tuesday morning from
overnight activity that was fueled by the nocturnal jet, or some
outflow feature from activity in Nebraska overnight. Either way,
more storm activity is expected to spread across the region during
the day Tuesday with a lot of focus on northern Missouri. As a
result, kept flash flood warning going out through 00Z Wednesday.

Wednesday...storms will settle south with a possible boundary across
central Missouri --from Tuesday`s activity-- that will likely result
in, at a minimum, part of a day of thunderstorm activity. These
storms will likely bring still more heavy rain.

After Wednesday...with a frontal boundary settling south we will
finally dry out the region for a few days as precipitable water
values fall to less than 1 inch, which will be a nice change from
the humidity of late. This will result in a few days of cooler
temperatures --highs in the 70s to lower 80s--. Next big chance for
storms then looks to arrive early next work week.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 103 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

VFR conditions will likely prevail at all the terminals over the next
24 hours, though there will be a threat of VCTS late this afternoon
and evening. Confidence is not high enough to warrant including a
TEMPO or FM group in the TAF sites at this time owing to the poor
predictability of today`s storms. Expect any stormy activity today
to fade this evening with the loss of day time heating, but will have
to watch for another round of storms later Tuesday.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for KSZ025-102.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for MOZ001-002-011-012-
     020.

&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter


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