427
FXUS63 KEAX 110514
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1214 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm/hot remainder of today and Friday, cooler into weekend.
  - Fri: High temps low-mid 90s, Heat Index mid 90s - low 100s
  - Weekend: Cool/cold front brings highs down into 80s
  - Early Next Week: Temps warm back into upper 80s/low 90s

* Multiple chances for storms thru Saturday
  - Tonight/Friday AM: Mainly NW/N Missouri, low severe threat for
    wind
  - Friday PM/Evening: Strong/severe possible, hail and wind main
    threats
  - Saturday: Lingering shower and storm activity, strong/severe
    threat not anticipated

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Forecast confidence continues to be a mixed bag with the
ongoing/continued, somewhat bust prone, large scale flow pattern
over the region. As such, confidence in details degrade rapidly with
each round of showers/storms potentially carrying large
ramifications for subsequent round(s). So, bear with this discussion
as the most likely scenario(s) attempt to be laid out...

Remnant/decaying MCS this morning did tend to outperform majority,
if not all, CAM guidance with regards to how far southward it would
progress, reaching the fringes of the KC metro/I-70 corridor before
rapidly completing its decay. Fortunately, it did not/has not
carried much in the way of ramifications this afternoon and evening
as it lacked any substantial outflow boundary to lay up over the
region. This has resulted majority clear skies today and
temperatures to rising into the upper 80s/lower 90s. Do anticipate
quite conditions into/through the evening as well with broader
forcing remaining displaced westward and a thermal cap in place that
appears poised to hold. CAM guidance has also suggested this in most
recent runs, and do not see a reason to deviate from that at this
point in time, at least through about midnight LT. While quiet
locally this evening, portions of Nebraska/South Dakota/Iowa are
expected to see robust convection develop in the vicinity of a warm
front draped in/around that tri-state area. Without going into those
details, environment is conducive all hazards initially and is
expected to congeal into an MCS that may be capable of very
strong/severe winds. Wind profiles/general steering flow and initial
mid-level shortwave progression will take bulk of the activity due
eastward across Iowa. The item of note here is that there are some
suggestions that cold pool/outflow generation may work southward and
be able to initiate convection into the CWA. 12z CAM guidance and
HRRR runs through the day have tended decay activity right
along/near the Iowa-Missouri border. Given recent history and CAM
tendencies, am skeptical of this solution. Adding to the skepticism,
thermal profiles appear conducive for strong cold pool generation
and low level flow (surface through LLJ/850mb-ish) will be oriented
toward/perpendicular to any outflows approaching from the north. Do
not expect severe potential with this potential progression into the
CWA overnight, given broader lack of supportive deep layer flow and
forcing, but does at least appear prudent to have PoPs in an
otherwise predominantly dry NBM and other CAM guidance. Have thusly
coordinated with TOP/OAX/DMX to allow for a PoPs progression into
Missouri overnight around/after 06z, gradually diminishing through
the overnight and early morning hours. Will casually note evening
storm activity over western/central Kansas too will drift eastward,
but good consensus in various guidance in the frontal boundary and
associated mid-level shortwave not making substantial progress
eastward, allowing convection to move out ahead of it and into a
much less favorable environment for sustained activity.

Looking into Friday daytime, these details will hinge to at least
some degree on how above mentioned/overnight convection behaves.
Including not just whether it does get into the CWA, but how far and
how strong outflows/cold pools area. This would effectively shunt
the warm front southward out of Iowa and could call into question
how far northward front may return during the daytime. That said,
prevailing solution at the moment remains for warm front to work
back into southern/central Iowa as secondary shortwave enhances
existing High Plains cyclogenesis and begins to spread influence
eastward. Within the warm sector, do expect low level flow to see
increased moisture advection and mostly clear skies, allowing strong
destabilization potential. Deep layer wind/shear profiles should
improve a bit, but largely remain marginal before cold frontal
passage later Friday evening. Deeper lift too may remain displaced
far enough westward to keep cap from breaking and prevent any open
warm sector convection. So, this points toward the warm front and
cold fronts for strong/severe potential. Revisiting the warm front,
should a strong overnight cold pool prevail, it is not out of the
question to see warm front end up over northern Missouri and allow
for convection during/through the afternoon and an increasing
strong/severe risk as instability increases. This too would
introduce all hazards risk potential. Do not think that is the
prevailing solution, as the increasing surface cyclogenesis may be
enough to push warm front back into Iowa regardless. Later in the
evening, storms are widely expected in the vicinity of the cold
frontal passage. Frontal and initiation timing will dictate primary
hazard risks. Meaning, initiation west of the CWA may limit hazards
to wind and heavy rain as storms are expected to congeal within a
shear/mean wind orientation more parallel to the front versus all
hazards potential with initiation within the CWA potentially
allowing initially isolated convection to organize as deep layer
shear increase >25-30 kts. A noted sneaky threat may be flood
potential with HREF and other extend CAM guidance all depicting
pockets/areas 2-4"+ with activity associated near/along the cold
front. This would be attributed to slow passage of this boundary,
PWats increasing >1.75", and training potential near/along the
front. Activity to gradually ease through the night/overnight. Days
2 SPC Slight and WPC Slight ERO are both in place over the area.

Into Saturday, front slowly sags through the area as parent forcing
drifts E/NE. A reinforcing push associated with a larger northern
stream shortwave trough will finish frontal push through the area as
an associated surface high builds in behind. This means scattered
shower/non-severe thunderstorm activity will continue across
portions of the area as the frontal boundary sags. Expect
temperatures to fall back into the lower-mid 80s in most cases,
continuing into Sunday, but drier by that point. Large scale pattern
continues to lack dominant large scale features over the area,
yielding additional shortwave passage opportunities into middle of
next week, albeit with low confidence in details. Temperatures will
drift back warmer, into the upper 80s/lower 90s, but may see a more
significant cold down mid-late week as synoptic guidance shows fair
confidence in a deeper longwave trough moving through the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR conds with a bkn high clouds are expected thru 15Z-16Z aft
which sct cu around 4kft is fcst to develop. Timing of storms is
still lo conf as some hi-res models suggest storms develop in
the VC of the terminals btn 20Z-21Z with others holding off til
23Z-00Z. Consequently, have a PROB30 group from 20Z-01Z for
storms with mod-hvy rain reducing VIS to 1-3SM. In the Wake of
the storms aft 23Z-01Z bkn cigs btn 4-6kft are fcst. Winds will
be out of the south around 10kts thru 15Z-16Z when the winds
will veer to the SSW and increase to 10-15kts with gusts to
20-25kts. Aft 23Z-01Z...winds gusts will subside and winds will
cont to veer to the SW/WSW btn 5-10kts

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...73