000
FXUS63 KEAX 080527
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1127 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...(Tonight and Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

Latest satellite visible imagery shows a weak embedded wave
translating northeast across southeast Kansas with the main vort max
center rotating around Colorado. At 19Z, the surface cold front was
situated from south central Kansas, through far southeast Nebraska
and edging the Iowa/Missouri border. Light radar returns over
Nebraska and southeast Kansas were not reaching the ground at this
time. Expect the cold front to continue southeastward across the
area early this evening as southerly winds switch to the north at 10
to 15 mph gusting up to 20 mph through the overnight period. After
high temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s, a 1030 mb cold
surface high shifts southward into the central plains, cooling low
temperatures Saturday morning from the 20s in northern Missouri to
near the freezing mark in central MO.

Just behind the cold front this evening, frontogenetical forcing
gradually increases, introducing chances for precip as the
aforementioned vort max comes closer to the region. Main changes for
this update involved precipitation type and precip chances. Sounding
profilers still suggest drier air in the dendritic zone as lower
levels saturate below 800 mb. With the only available forcing being
weak frontogenesis, believe precip begins at drizzle, transitioning
to light freezing drizzle mixed with snow as the main upper trough
saturates the ice growth layer after midnight. Latest guidance
continues to hint at lesser amounts of QPF overnight so adjusted
amounts accordingly, thinking the drier air and drizzle/freezing
drizzle may linger until the wave approaches. This factor combined
with the lack of strong source of lift opted to remove likely precip
chances as some locations may receive little to no precip. Any
freezing drizzle may result in patchy slick spots overnight.

On Saturday, the track of the main upper trough is fairly consistent
in centering over southern MO. The best chances for rainfall are at
this time, up to a quarter of an inch QPF. Precip chances come to an
end up north during the afternoon, while central MO could see up to
an inch of snow mixed with rain by late afternoon. Cloud cover and
cold air advection hold temps to the 30s during the day, before
subsidence clears cloud cover north to south by late afternoon.

.Long Term...(Saturday Evening through Friday)

All precipitation comes to an end by Saturday evening as
temperatures recover on Sunday afternoon. Southerly flow returns as
a secondary surface trough builds across western Kansas. The optimal
warm advection resides just to our west, while surface high pressure
centered overhead keeps highs slightly cooler in the lower to middle
50s for highs. Sunday morning temps hover in the lower 20s with the
high pressure influence over southern MO.

The main upper trough slowly migrates eastward over the southern
plains Monday into Tuesday while southerly warm air increases into
the area. H85 temps near 12C at 12Z Monday with decent mixing to the
surface allows highs to peak in the lower to middle 60s. Another
cold front arrives into the region Tuesday afternoon and evening
with guidance bringing another round of rain and snow from Tuesday
evening ending by Wednesday evening. Models vary on timing, but are
most consistent Wednesday afternoon where highest chances were
inserted. The 12Z ECMWF has been consistently more amplified with
this system, while the latest GFS is just starting to become closer
in sync with possible precip. Cold air behind the front is not
particularly strong for Wednesday as highs in the 40s quickly
rebound to the 50s Thursday and Friday with sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

MVFR conditions will prevail through the morning hours of Saturday. A
band of light snow or drizzle may affect the terminals early this
morning, but given the scattered nature of the threat will opt to
update terminals instead of carrying a TEMPO group. Otherwise, expect
north winds to prevail through the next 24 hours with skies clearing
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JB at TOP
AVIATION...Cutter