Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 280525
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1225 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015
Issued at 312 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015
A rainy 48 hours begins Thursday morning with a series of weak
upper-level impulses that will interact with an increasingly moist
airmass. The first of these impulses is sparking off convection
across the High Plains this afternoon, and this feature will bring
rain and a few storms to the area as early as sunrise Thursday. Off-
and-on rain chances will then continue through Saturday morning with
a continued parade of weak impulses combined with steady low-level
isentropic ascent. Rain chances will end with the passage of a cold
front Saturday morning.
With poor lapse rates, marginal instability and weak shear through
Saturday, the threat for strong or severe storms looks low aside
from an isolated strong wind gust or marginally severe hail Thursday
or Friday afternoon. The bigger concern will be the potential for
more heavy rain. Some ingredients are in place for heavy rain
including deep moisture, precipitable water amounts up to 1.75" and
somewhat deep warm-cloud depth. However, with a lack of a well-
defined forcing mechanism it makes it difficult to pinpoint where and
when the heaviest rain could fall. In addition, storm motion vectors,
while slow, don`t appear supportive of training storms compared to
some of the more recent heavy rain events. Therefore it seems that a
widespread 1" to 1.5" will be the general rule by the time all is
said and done Saturday morning with a few locally higher amounts.
This isn`t too conducive for flash flooding when it falls over 48
hours so will not post any flood watches at this time.
Saturday will see drier weather behind the morning front although
clouds may take a while to clear out. Post-frontal airmass will be
seasonably cool with highs in the upper 60s/near 70 both Saturday and
Sunday with lows in the lower 60s. Broad upper-level ridging will
maintain generally dry conditions into early next week. There could
be some isolated afternoon "popcorn" storms by mid-week as moisture
returns to the area and temperatures climb back into the lower 80s.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
VFR conditions will prevail for the next several hours, though after
sunrise some showers and/or thunderstorms may affect the terminals
for a few hours. Any stormy activity should move through or dissipate
late this morning but there will be a persistent chance of storms
through the afternoon hours due continued moisture advection on the
southerly wind today. However, have highlighted the best timing for
afternoon storms to occur between 23Z and 03Z this evening.
Otherwise, expect the wind through the day to veer from the
southeast to the south.