Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 260818
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
318 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014
Issued at 318 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
Quasi-stationary boundary near a KC to Sedalia line will lift into
northern Missouri as a warm front today. Airmass to the north of
this front is quite dry which has mitigated any fog development
across that area, while increasing southerly flow to the south of the
boundary is preventing temperatures from reaching saturation levels.
Still may see some patchy areas of fog particularly in sheltered
areas south and west of the Missouri River but the potential for
widespread fog is quickly decreasing.
Warm air advection to the south of the warm front will bring
temperatures about 20 degrees above average this afternoon. Most
guidance continues to suggest highs in the lower 80s for all but the
Kirksville area where the front will be slower to pass this
afternoon. These temperatures would be reasonable assuming typical
late October mixing to about 925 or 900 hPa. However, models may be
under-doing the degree of boundary layer mixing this afternoon as
evidenced by upstream 00Z soundings yesterday, where parts of
Oklahoma mixed above 850 hPa and warmed into the lower 90s. After
mixing heights here rose higher than expected yesterday, it seems
entirely possible that parts of eastern KS and western MO could rise
warmer than model guidance into the middle and even upper 80s. This
could threaten record highs of 87 degrees at both KC and St. Joe.
On Monday a cold front will push in from the north, setting the stage
for a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.
Could see a few very elevated showers and perhaps a storm develop as
early as early Monday afternoon as isentropic ascent increases ahead
of the front. Better lift will arrive with the boundary later in the
evening. Despite the unseasonably warm airmass ahead of the front,
poor lapse rates, dry air just off the surface and meager instability
do not appear favorable for strong storms or widespread precipitation
with this system.
The airmass behind the front will be much more typical of late
October with highs in the lower 60s and lows in the upper 30s/lower
40s for Tuesday through Thursday. Broad surface ridging and a dry
airmass look to keep the remainder of the week dry, including on
Thursday when another cold front will drop into the area. Airmass
behind this front looks to finally bring the first significant
frost/freeze threat to parts of the area by Friday night.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
Little change in forecast with TAF package. Initially VFR before
MVFR conditions during the early morning hours. Short-term models
continue to suggest drier air mass behind boundary to settle near/just
south of the KC Metro area, with the greatest potential for dense fog
just west/south of terminals. Sites have a better chance for low
stratus near the MVFR/IFR category as opposed to fog, beginning 09Z
and mixing out around 16Z, with IXD being the exception to see a
better shot at IFR fog and perhaps STJ with local terrain effects.
Cannot completely rule out periodic IFR conditions from shallow fog
or stratus, but predictability would appear too low for prevailing
forecast at this time. Otherwise, gusty southeast winds expected