213
FXUS63 KEAX 230832
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
332 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 331 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

Scattered showers and storms finally made their way into the
forecast area within the last couple of hours. They have formed
along a cold front, which is working its way southeast. We could see
some small hail out of a couple of storms, but mainly expect
general thunderstorms. Storms will continue to move southeast with
the cold front and should be out of the area by late morning.
Moving in behind the storms and cold front, is a surface high
pressure. This will bring cooler temperatures and drier air for
the next several days. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s,
with lows in the 50s. Both the highs and lows are below normal for
this time of year.

The broad upper level trough over the Great Lakes, which is
influencing our weather this morning, will not move much over the
next couple of days. This may bring storm chances back into the
area Sunday into Monday, as upper level energy moves overhead on
the trough`s southern periphery. There also looks to be some warm
air advection creeping into the area, supporting some storm
development. There is fairly good agreement among long range
models, but the 00Z NAM doesn`t show much in the way of warm air
advection or precipitation. Will have to wait and see how future
model runs handle this timeframe. If storms do develop, there`s
not much in the way of CAPE right now, so potential storms will
likely be sub-severe. On Tuesday, an upper level ridge will move
over the region, while at the surface, we transition into the warm
sector of a surface low developing in the Northern Plains. This
will increase temperatures into the upper 80s for the end of next
week. Mid-week, multiple upper level shortwave troughs will move
overhead, resulting in multiple rounds of storms through the end
of next week. Still too early for specifics, but there is
potential for some of this activity to be severe.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

The main issue for all TAF sites tonight will be showers and
thunderstorms that are expected to form along an approaching cold
frontal boundary from the north. Scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms will push through after 7-8Z and only last 2-3 hours
at each location. The main threat for on station thunderstorms
will be KSTJ and KMCI with tempo -TSRA added and the southern TAF
locations keeping VCTS as the line is expected to weaken as it
moves south. Some guidance had indicated potential MVFR ceilings
behind the frontal boundary earlier but have since started to back
off of and keep things all VFR which is what the current TAFs
have. This will be watched and MVFR ceilings could be added if
they start to develop over the next few hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...Barham