Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 232337
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
537 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 345 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2018

The main concerns this forecast period will revolve around the
chance for light ice accumulations across northern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas overnight into tomorrow morning. This
precipitation is coming courtesy of a lead shortwave ejecting out
ahead of a upper trough moving through the central Rockies. The
precipitation associated with this lead shortwave is evident on radar
imagery lifting northeastward across northeastern OK/southwestern
MO. This precipitation will continue to lift northeastward into the
forecast area tonight. The northern portion of the CWA will be in
the upper 20s to lower 30s when the rain moves into the area
overnight leading to freezing rain and freezing drizzle mainly along
and north of the Highway 36 corridor. Ice accumulations of a few
hundredths to a tenth of an inch will be possible overnight tonight
through noon tomorrow making for slick road conditions. By tomorrow
afternoon, temperatures will move above freezing with periodic rain
throughout the day. There may even be an isolated clap of thunder
across the southeastern CWA on Saturday afternoon. Highs will range
from the mid to upper 30s north to near 50 across the south.
Precipitation will exit the area Saturday night however, it may
briefly change to snow before exiting the area with no accumulation
expected.

A dry period with a warming trend is expected from Sunday through
the first half of the work week. Surface high pressure will build
into the area Sunday and dominate the area through Monday morning.
Zonal flow aloft Sunday will help allow for near normal temperatures
in the lower 40s to lower 50s. As high pressure shift southeast of
the area Monday afternoon we get a return to southerly flow which
will help highs rise into the 50s. Strong WAA is expected on Tuesday
lifting temperatures into the mid 50s to mid 60s. Warm air advection
showers will move into the area Tuesday night out ahead of a upper
level trough moving through the southern Rockies. Wednesday, the
aforementioned upper level trough will force a cold front into the
area continuing shower chances through the day. Highs will be in the
50s to lower 60s. On the back side of the upper level trough, the
precipitation may change over to snow Wednesday night however, no
accumulation is expected. Precipitation will exit the area on
Thursday with temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2018

Rain showers currently lifting northeast across the southern
Plains will gradually build into the forecast area late this
evening, reaching all TAF sites between 05z-08z. Ceilings will
lower to IFR as the rain arrives, then will progressively lower as
the precipitation tapers off by mid-morning. Patchy fog and LIFR
stratus is expected through the remainder of the morning, then
another round of rain showers may help raise ceilings to around or
slightly above 1 kft during the afternoon. Winds will remain out
of the northeast to east overnight into Saturday morning mainly at
speeds around 5-7 kts, then will become light and variable during
the daylight hours Saturday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Saturday for
     KSZ025-102.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Saturday for
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020.

&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Laflin



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