Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 240828
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
328 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fog is the main concern this morning with widespread dense fog over
much of northern Missouri, becoming lighter in nature across areas
further south and west. Occasional high clouds have kept this fog
from becoming more widespread across western MO and eastern KS, but
this could change toward sunrise as these clouds are thinning out a
bit. For now plan no changes to the current dense fog advisory as
observations and webcams across ares outside of the advisory suggest
some of this moisture is taking the form of a low stratus versus
widespread dense fog. If low visibilities do start to become more
widespread then this advisory will need expanding.

Combo of thick low clouds/fog and some thicker cirrus spreading
in from the northwest may make it difficult to reach the 80 degree
mark today. Therefore highs were lowered a few degrees, ranging from
the upper 70s near the KS/MO state line to near 70 across the
Kirksville area where low clouds and fog will take longer to burn
off. May need to watch for a few areas of fog again tonight when a
front will sag into the area from the north but gradually wash out,
resulting in another night of light winds. Lower moisture should keep
any fog from becoming as widespread as it is this morning.

Saturday and Sunday will be dry and warm with a deep upper-level
ridge building into the area. Highs could be as warm as the lower to
even middle 80s on Sunday which will be more typical of early
September (record highs of 87 at both KC and STJ on Sunday should be
safe).

On Monday a cold front will track through the area with showers and a
few thunderstorms likely developing along and ahead of it through the
afternoon. Despite the unseasonably warm airmass in place, marginal
moisture and the presence of a low-level capping inversion don`t
appear supportive of any strong storms or heavy rain with this front.
Will need to keep an eye on this though as mid-level winds will be
fairly strong, so the threat for strong storms could increase if
instability trends stronger than currently expected.

A shift into quasi-zonal upper flow behind the front will bring a
return to dry conditions for much of next week while temperatures
drop closer to seasonal normals. This could mean lows in the upper
30s for some areas later next week, but for now there don`t appear to
be any significant frost or freeze threats for the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Very tricky TAF forecast during the first 10 hours of the TAF period
as fog will be a player during this timeframe. Currently the TAF
sites have vsbys ranging from 2SM-4SM. These vsbys will either hold
steady or perhaps even improve with a bkn high cirrus deck moving
over the terminals. Overnight, this cirrus deck may thin and fog may
become more dense. If this scenario were to come to fruition, vsby
would drop to 1/4SM-1SM and as such have added a tempo group for
those potential conds mainly btn 10Z-14Z. It is during this time
frame model guidance and soundings are also hinting at a IFR stratus
deck and have included that in the TEMPO grp as well. But, if the
high clouds do hold over the terminals all night vsbys will remain
MVFR even VFR is conds improve. Fog is expected to hold over the
terminals btn 14Z-15Z when vsbys will lift to P6SM and cigs will sct
btn 2-3kft. Expect skies to clear tonight and that may set the stage
for an early onset of fog tomorrow night at fog prone STJ where vsbys
will decrease in a hurry. Winds thru mid morning will be light out of
the south before veering to the SSW an increasing to around 10kts.
Winds will again diminish tomorrow night to around 5kts which will
also aid in potential fog development tomorrow night.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ003>008-
     013>017-021>025-030>032.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...73






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