000
FXUS63 KEAX 211140
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
640 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 302 AM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

Complicating factors are abound for today`s eclipse in an active,
unstable pattern across the Plains. A convective complex which
formed in northwest IA this evening has begun to propagate south
southeastward as its cold pool strengthens, and will likely
continue to do so over the next several hours as the LLJ feeds
into the system. Evolution of this complex is once again handled
very poorly by high-res models, but Corfidi vectors and the
orientation of the instability gradient suggest the south to
south southeast development should continue. Have hand-edited
cloud cover upward as the anvil plume develops south and spreads
to the east across the northeastern quadrant of MO, and then
allowed higher cloud cover to dissipate and advect off to the east
as storms weaken by mid-morning.

An outflow boundary currently evident on radar pushing through the
Omaha area will continue to slide southward this morning, and
while the eastern extent of the of the outflow will continue to
push quickly to the south, the western edge may stall near the
NE/KS/MO border without strong evaporative cooling due north of
the boundary to reinforce its southward propagation. This pre-
existing boundary could serve as a focus for convective initiation
as early as 12PM in an already unstable atmosphere, complicating
the forecast for the eclipse even further. At the same time,
cirrus streaming northward from convection in the High Plains will
continue to approach the forecast area, and most models indicate
the thickest cirrus will push into the NE/KS/MO corner just after
noon. The cirrus is probably the least of the caveats to eclipse
viewing since it may remain thin and broken enough to view the
sun, but the potential for developing low-based thick cumulus is
much more concerning, particularly if the outflow boundary stalls
near the path of totality.

Any storms that develop this afternoon have the potential to
quickly become strong as MLCAPE increases to greater than 2000
J/kg, and while deep-layer shear remains questionable with a
weakness in the wind field around 600-500 hPa, decent 0-3 km
shear and enhanced helicity from remnant boundaries could add
organization to any robust storms that develop, and could even
result in a brief tornado in storms that root along a boundary.

This "questionable" shear profile will only serve to enhance the
potential for heavy rain this evening along and ahead of the cold
front as it pushes through the region. GOES-16 WV imagery finally
shows a break in the tropical connection between Hurricane Kenneth
and the desert southwest, but the damage has already been done as
very high PWATs continue to advect northeastward into the Plains.
The combination of multiple convection rounds, PWATs approaching
2.5 inches, very high warm cloud depths, a deeply saturated
profile, and an increasing low-level jet below weaker steering
winds will definitely set the stage for very heavy rain across
the majority of the CWA. Have kept the flash flood watch as-is,
but will also need to watch how much precipitation falls along the
MO/IA border early this morning, which could lower flash flood
guidance even further after yesterday`s storms and on top of
additional expected rainfall tonight.

Quieter conditions are finally expected once the front clears out
of the area early Tuesday morning, clearing out low-level moisture
and slashing high temperatures back into the upper 70s to low 80s
for Tuesday through the weekend.

&&

.Specifics for the Total Solar Eclipse on August 21st...
Issued at 640 AM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

Cirrus is beginning to impinge on the area from the southwest,
pushing into Kansas City and areas to the northwest over the next
1-2 hours. This anvil cirrus could begin to thin out a bit as the
storms responsible for the plume weaken, but continual upper-level
moisture will stream into the region throughout the afternoon in
these same areas. In addition, midlevel accas is developing from
southeast NE through STJ and into the Chillicothe/Carrollton
area, which is the beginning signs of scattered to broken low to
mid clouds that could also hamper eclipse viewing this afternoon.
The anvil shield from storms that have been ongoing across central
and southern IA all morning should remain mostly northeast of the
path of totality, but will continue to monitor outflow from these
storms as it could serve as an additional focus for storms by
early afternoon.

Currently, eclipse viewing in our area can be broken into two main
segments: areas northwest of approximately Carrollton/Richmond
will battle both scattered to broken upper-level clouds (cirrus)
and scattered mid to low clouds, which could be thick. Further to
the southeast from Marshall to Boonville and points southeastward,
the main cloud type will be low- to mid-based cumulus, and may be
scattered enough to gamble on a decent view of the eclipse.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

Scattered accas will develop around KSTJ and spread southward
toward KC area terminals by mid to late morning, but should be
based around or above 3 kft. Cirrus will also stream into the
region from the southwest, bringing in a broken to overcast deck
at around 20-25 kft. A few isolated showers or storms are possible
this afternoon, then will become increasingly likely after 00z. A
cold front will push through the region after 03z, and will be
accompanied by widespread thunderstorms and veering winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for
     MOZ012>016-020>024-028>032-037>039-043>045-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin
Eclipse...Laflin