Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 250523
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1223 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 428 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

While extreme heat and humidity will return and grab our attention
for Friday our eyes are turned to the north for the immediate
future. Series of upstream convective complexes continue to be
generated over southwest MN where isentropic ascent is maximized and
then roll south-southeast. So far, the convection has
weakened/dissipated as it rolls through IA. Since even the
short-range convective allowing models have struggled in handling
this convection will rely on radar and satellite cloud trends which
indicate the convection is holding together longer and as such could
reach into northeast MO over the next several hours. Later tonight
another convective complex is likely to form over the same general
area as the southwesterly low-level jet intensifies from KS through
NE. GFS and ECMWF generate convective feedback in the h5 vorticity
fields and this seems reasonable. So will maintain low chance PoPs
for northeast MO for late tonight.

The upper ridge extending northeast from the large upper high over
the Southern Rockies will lean eastward on Friday with the NE/KS
low-level jet shifting into the CWA and enabling the hot and humid
air over the western OK/TX to surge northeast and into the CWA. The
western third of the CWA should bear the brunt of the heat/humidity
combo as +24C to +27C h8 air spreads across the CWA. This should
allow temperatures to reach the middle to upper 90s over the western
CWA and upper 80s/lower 90s over the eastern counties. Believe the
h7 vorticity center the GFS and NAM track east across KS Friday
morning is the remnant of a dissipating small MCS as h7 temperatures
in excess of +14C are likely capping the environment. But do think
there is a good chance for considerable high level cloud cover
spreading across western MO by late morning and early afternoon
which may knock off a few degrees of heating. Even so, have issued a
Heat Advisory for Friday afternoon as max heat indices between 102
and 108 are expected.

H7 temperatures in the +13C to +15C range are expected to provide an
effective cap over the CWA through Saturday afternoon. A cold front
dropping southeast through NE and IA Friday afternoon will likely
become hung up over the far northern CWA through Saturday. Just not
enough push behind the front. So, will ignore the more southern
position of the NAM as even it had h7 temperatures of +14C over its
frontal position. Little change in the airmass over the CWA so
another hot and muggy day. Extensive model generated cloud debris is
all that keeps us from extending/expanding the heat advisory through
Saturday. Best to wait till tomorrow to decide if an extension will
be required.

Best chance for any meaningful convection should come Saturday night
as a sharp upper trough swings southeast through the Northern Plains
and Upper MS Valley. Downstream height falls should be sufficient to
push the cold front through the CWA while the southern edge of
stronger westerlies skirts northern MO and interacts with the
frontal boundary. Still, confidence is low for anything more than
scattered convection/chance PoPs.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 428 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Main cold front to be sliding south of the fcst region by Sunday
morning. Outside chance for lingering shwrs/storms across southern
portions of the fcst area...however have offered a dry fcst based on
collaboration with adjacent offices. Behind this feature...cooler
and less humid air will advance over the region as high pressure
begins to build south from southern Canada and the northern Rockies.
Secondary cold front looks to pass early Monday with even drier
conditions expected through the first half of the work week. Latest
extended MOS numbers offering high temps in the upper 70s to lower
80s through midweek...with dry conditions through at least Tuesday
as high pressure takes up residence over the Midwest/Lwr Missouri
Rvr Vly. By Wednesday...stalled front to our south will begin
lifting back as a warm front which may lead to the next chance for
shwrs/storms across western portions of the fcst area. For
now...have offered only a slgt chc mention Wed/Wed ngt as best warm
air advection remains south and west of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

Blow off bkn cirrus from storms in Nebraska will move into the
terminals in the next hour or two. However, conds will remain VFR
with just sct-bkn high clouds thru the period. Winds will be out of
the south btn 8-13kts thru mid-morning when they will pick up to
15-20kts with gusts to around 25kts. Winds will subside during the
evening dmshg to 10-15kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening FOR
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ001>004-011>013-020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...73






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