Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 220451
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014
Shower activity has greatly diminished this afternoon as a weak surface
front/wind shift drops into east central KS and central MO.
Subsidence behind both this feature and a subtle wave aloft seem to
have kept a lot of the shower activity at bay this afternoon.
However, while the wind shift is pushing to the south of the Missouri
River, the main frontal boundary itself is just now entering far
southwest Iowa where dewpoints rapidly drop from the mid 50s into the
20s. Ahead of this line the airmass is showing signs of weak
destabilization over eastern KS and northern MO, and it`s still
possible if not likely for scattered thunderstorms to develop across
this area over the next couple of hours as the airmass continues to
destabilize and convergence increases along the elevated front in the
925 to 850 hPa layer. Will therefore hold on to 50-percent PoPs for
much of the area through early evening until the primary frontal
boundary pushes through. Anything that pops up will be short-lived
and unlikely to be strong.
Skies will rapidly clear from northwest to southeast this evening
as surface ridging begins to build in from the north. Low-level ridge
axis will become centered over the forecast area on Tuesday providing
clear skies and temperatures near average for mid/late April.
On Wednesday an upper-level trough will track out of the Rockies into
the High Plains bringing rising temperatures to our area and a threat
for strong storms to western parts of KS and OK. These storms will
reach their peak severity well to our west Wednesday afternoon and
early evening and should lose considerable strength by the time they
reach far eastern KS and western MO late Weds night and early Thurs
morning. However, the upper level trough will take a more negative
tilt as it approaches our area Wednesday night which will bring an
increase to wind fields at both the lower and middle levels and will
also allow for a broad increase in deep-layer ascent. Therefore while
the storms won`t be as strong, they will likely grow upscale in
coverage overnight and bring widespread rain to the area. Combined
with strong moisture transport within a strong low-level jet and
precipitable water values approaching 1.5 inches, some spots could
see an inch or more of rain with this system through Thursday
In a continued progressive upper-level pattern, ridging will be quick
to return to the region Thursday night and Friday keeping
temperatures near average. Models continue to advertise a deep storm
system ejecting into the Plains over the weekend into early next
week. This system has the potential to produce some active weather
across the central part of the country. While there is still
considerable variability among models, and thus plenty of room for
the track of this system to change, it currently appears the most
active weather will stay to our south keeping our area in the cool
and rainy sector as opposed to warm and stormy.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
North northwesterly winds will gradually lessen and turn eastward by
late Tuesday morning, and skies will remain generally clear.