Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 272331

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.Short Term...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 348 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

Short Term (Tonight through Friday night):

Upper level ridge out across the western CONUS will help keep the
area in active northwest flow aloft through the short term period.
This will bring continued chances for thunderstorms through the
period as several shortwaves will move through the region. The first
of these shortwaves is moving through the Upper Midwest this
afternoon and will force a cold front into the area this evening.
Convergence along this cold front will be weak as it moves through
the area this evening however, models do continue to want to develop
scattered convection across the CWA. The front will push south of
the area by tomorrow morning and conditions should remain dry across
the area with just the slight chance for a thunderstorm across the
southern and eastern CWA. Highs tomorrow will be near normal behind
the cold front with highs in the mid to upper 80s. A MCS is expected
to develop across the western High Plains tomorrow. This MCS is
expected to roll southeastward across Kansas along the
aforementioned front and will slide south of the area although the
southwestern portion of the CWA may get clipped with a few showers
and thunderstorms late Thursday night into Friday morning. Friday
and Friday night models continue to depict a few shortwaves
traversing the area in northwest flow allowing for scattered
thunderstorms chances to continue through that period. Highs Friday,
with additional cloud cover, will hold in the low to mid 80s.

.Long Term...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

This weekend will see mostly northwest upper level flow as the upper
level trough begins to move east of the area. Periodic storm chances
are possible Saturday and Sunday as models show multiple shortwaves
moving over the CWA. The timing of these storms are uncertain this
far in advance, though the GFS and European models currently lean
towards Sunday being the wetter day.

Hot temperatures and dry weather return next week. Upper level flow
will level out throughout the weekend and a high pressure ridge will
persist throughout the week, bringing high temperatures back to the
low 90s by Monday.


.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

VFR conditions largely expected through the fcst period...although
we cannot rule out some VSBY restrictions at STJ during the early
morning hours. Main cold front to slide south across the region
tonight with little seen so far this evening to support developing
convection along it. As a result...have left all terminals dry for
the time being...and if later model guidance shows more optimistic
signs for development...will include in the 06z package.
Otherwise...winds to remain light and variable overnight before
increasing out of the north between 5-10 kts after sunrise.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term...73
Long Term...HEC/73
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