Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 050453
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1053 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 256 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2016

Fast-moving storm system that dropped as much as 2 inches of snow
across northern Missouri this morning is quickly clearing the area,
and skies should become mostly clear across the entire area shortly
after sunset. Winds will be quick to become southerly overnight,
and resulting moisture advection could favor some areas of fog
particularly over far northern Missouri where a little bit of snow is
still on the ground.

A closed upper low over Mexico will gradually kick out into the
Southern Plains on Monday, then become phased with the northern
stream over the Ohio Valley Monday night. Most of the precipitation
with this system will stay just to the east of the forecast area, and
anything that does make it this far west will be in the form of light
rain. The bigger story Monday night will be a strong cold front that
will surge through the area, keeping temperatures in the 30s and
lower 40s on Tuesday, then dropping well into the 20s Tuesday night.

The cold airmass that will settle into the region on Tuesday will set
the stage for light snow on Wednesday when another fast-moving upper
wave will track across the area. Despite the broad/weak structure of
the wave and its progressive nature, models all seem to agree that
enough deep lift and moisture will be in place so that light snow
accumulations appear increasingly likely during the day Wednesday.
Since this event will be mostly synoptically-driven, and since most
models are coming into decent alignment with each other, confidence
is a bit higher than average that many areas will see at least an
inch or two of snow. The most likely area for accumulating snow
appears to be near and south of the US 36 corridor although being 3
days out this most certainly could change. While it`s still a bit
early to look at details, there`s a decent signal suggestive of a
deep dendritic growth region and perhaps even some weak frontogenesis
that could lead to high liquid-to-snow ratios and a locally higher
snowfall rates. If true, then 3 to 4 inch amounts wouldn`t be out of
the question somewhere, but time will tell if and where such snow
amounts may be.

Behind Wednesday`s system Thursday is looking downright frigid. A
deep 1045 mb Arctic high settling into into the High Plains will
bring the coldest airmass our area has seen since January.
Temperatures will tumble into the lower teens and even single digits
both Wednesday night and Thursday night, while daytime highs on
Thursday will struggle to rise out of the teens in many areas.

Upper flow will become quasi-zonal by the end of this week into the
weekend. As would be expected in such a progressive pattern, models
are having a difficult time resolving any quick-moving systems that
may move across the area during this time. Therefore went ahead and
held onto precip chances over the weekend even though the most recent
runs of the GFS and ECMWF came in dry, since future runs could easily
revert back to a wetter solution.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1053 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2016

The main challenge with this forecast is the potential for fog
through a few hours after sunrise. To this point in the night, the
fog has been fairly patchy. But with a weak pressure gradient roughly
along and south of the Missouri River, it looks more likely that more
widespread fog is possible with patchy areas of dense fog. This would
mainly impact the KIXD terminal, which is already seeing visibilities
1/2sm or lower. Short term model guidance suggest the weakness in
the pressure gradient will shift southeast late tonight, resulting in
a bit more mixing/wind at the terminals. So it`s possible conditions
at IXD may be at their worse now and then improve some as winds may
increase slightly before sunrise. Once fog lifts for good by mid
morning, VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the
forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...CDB


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