Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 261054
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
554 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 416 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

Early morning elevated convection will continue to fire south of a
stationary frontal boundary draped across northeast Kansas and
northern Missouri. A stout EML will continue to support modest
instability with further destabilization through the morning hours.
Storms early on will be relatively isolated and should remain north
of the I-70 corridor until daybreak. Overnight convection has been
slow to strengthen given the lack of instability, though should
start to see more widespread development in the early to mid morning
hours. A larger cluster of storms developing over north central
Kansas, where more supportive instability is present, will likely
generate a cold pool sufficient enough to steer nearby convection to
the southeast. As these elevated storms strengthen after daybreak,
some storms may produce large hail until the mid morning.

As this activity slides to the southeast through the late morning to
early afternoon, there should be a bit of a break in the activity
until the late afternoon and early evening hours. The anticipated
deep upper low will center across western Kansas while at the
surface, a dryline will reside from central Texas up to south
central Nebraska. Morning convection may limit instability to a
degree, though cloud cover should thin out enough to generate
surface based CAPE values over 2000 Jkg by the mid afternoon. More
robust convection will fire along the dry line well to the west of
the area through the early afternoon. This convection will then
slide into eastern Kansas and western Missouri by the late
afternoon. Will also need to monitor the potential for convection
ahead of the dryline within an area of surface convergence. As the
storms over eastern Kansas approach the area, will likely transition
to a linear mode with bowing segments. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the primary hazards, particularly for western Missouri,
though a few embedded tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

The next round of activity, which could be more pronounced for the
CWA, arrives during Wednesday as the dryline advances toward eastern
Kansas. Modest instability looks to develop across eastern Kansas
along with central and southwest Missouri as previous convection
clears out. Most of the expected convection should develop over
central and eastern Missouri, though will need to monitor points
west, particularly northwest Missouri as the stacked low could
produce a few tornadoes.

The active pattern will subside temporarily heading into Thursday
and Friday, though another upper low will deepen across the
southwest during this time. Could see late week convection by late
Friday as a warm front lifts north. A few rounds of storms with
potential severe storms will then develop through the weekend as the
surface low lifts to the northwest into the Central Plains.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

Developing thunderstorms over NE Kansas will slide to the southeast
and should clip the KC metro through the early morning hours.
Visibility and ceilings will likely decrease to MVFR should the
storms drop far enough south as expected. This will be followed by a
break in the activity through much of the afternoon with conditions
returning to VFR. More widespread thunderstorms will then develop
ahead of a dryline over central Kansas and work their way into the
terminals this evening. Ceilings may periodically drop to IFR within
the stronger storms, though prevailing MVFR looks probable overall.
These will then begin to taper off toward the very end of the
forecast period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh



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