Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 141802

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1202 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Issued at 346 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2018

Radar returns and surface observations all show snow starting to
hedge into eastern Kansas and western Missouri early this morning in
response to a quick moving shortwave trough diving into the
northwest flow that is in place across the Plains States. This
shortwave trough, and the resulting precipitable weather, will be
the focus of the forecast this morning due to the snow it will
bring, but also the cold air that it will usher in for a couple of
days this coming work week.

With the isentropic lift leading the shortwave trough into the Lower
Missouri River Valley this morning, top down saturation got going
quickly, with snow noted a little after 1 AM locally. Snow forecast
for this morning is not overly complicated, as radar trends are
matching well with model output, ultimately leading one to think
a quick 1 to 2 inches of snowfall along the central Kansas-
Missouri state border looks reasonable this morning. Will keep the
going Winter Weather Advisory going as is as a result. Of
interest for today will be the fact that temperatures will trend
up a little thanks to the south to southeast surface winds ahead
of the surface low associated with this system. So, if it feels
warmer today than in the past two days, that`s because it is. As
an example: expect highs this afternoon to nose above freezing in
areas just south and west of Kansas City. However, these somewhat
warmer temperatures wont last long, as a surge of cold air will
follow the parent shortwave trough into the region, bringing the
cold back for the work week along with a second round of snow late
tonight into Monday morning.

Later tonight into Monday morning...we will see the weather across
our region dominated by the cold air sweeping south behind the
shortwave trough that is bringing this mornings snow, as well as
tonight`s. Expectations for another widespread inch or two of snow
continue to look well founded as model solutions and conceptual
models all point at the strong cold air advection tonight inducing
enough frontogenic forcing to squeeze some more snowflakes from the
sky tonight. Current timing for the overnight activity has sped up a
little, with snow now forecast to reach the Iowa-Missouri border
between 6 PM and 9 PM this evening, likely spreading south to I-70
around midnight, with much of the still falling snow south of
Highway 50 by mid-morning Monday. Otherwise, of note will be the
falling temperatures, as the strong cold air advection will force
temperature readings to fall through the day Monday, with midnight
highs and lows likely. This will result in potentially dangerous
wind chill readings Tuesday morning. However, the cold airmass
wont hang out around long as the broader pattern across the
Nation flattens out a bit, allowing above freezing temperatures to
spread north across the region as early as Thursday.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2018

Thin stratus layer should hang around for a few more hours, with
a brief period of VFR later tonight before the next round of light
snow. Based VIS forecast on Sunday morning`s event, which had
mostly 2- 5 mile visibility with brief periods of lower VIS. TEMPO
groups in upcoming forecasts can handle those lower VIS as we
approach the event. Thin low stratus layer depicted by model
guidance as well as NAM forecast soundings prompted a persitence of
MVFR CIGs through the remainder of the TAF period, but ultimately
could be SKC if that thin layer mixes out a bit.


KS...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ025-057-060-

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ028-029-037-



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