Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 260513

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1113 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 411 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015

Another well-above-normal day across the forecast area despite the
widespread cloud cover. Deepening low pressure at the surface is
responsible for the steady southerly winds bringing in the
warm/moist air. Precipitation has generally held off through the
day, likely due to too much dry air in the low/mid levels to get a
deep enough saturated profile. Expect this to change through the
overnight hours as good moisture associated with Major Hurricane
Sandra in the eastern Pacific. PWAT values approaching 1.5" will
make their way into the mid/lower Missouri River Valley by Thursday,
which will provide prime conditions for steady moderate to heavy
rain across the area through the day on Thursday. While the main
upper low associated with this system will remain well off to the
west the warm air advection as well as good low level ascent
associated with a cold front will provide the ascent for this rain
fall event. Expect by noon on Thursday for rain to be widespread
across far northwestern Missouri, spreading southward through the
day on Thursday. By mid afternoon rain will likely be ongoing across
most of the region, with perhaps the exception of central Missouri,
toward the KCOU area. Then by midnight, widespread precipitation
will be ongoing area-wide.

The cold air at the surface very well could take its time making its
way into northern Missouri. Hourly temperatures on Thursday evening
currently indicate above-freezing surface temperatures through 00z
Friday, then dipping rather quickly into the upper 20s through the
overnight period on Thursday night. Warm nose above the surface
should preclude any snow formation, so all precipitation through
Friday morning should be in the form of liquid rain then freezing
rain once surface temps drop below freezing Thursday evening. For
now, the going forecast is generally calling for .15" to .25" of ice
accumulation for the far northeast KS and northwest MO counties
through Friday morning. With ground temperatures still in the 40s
and 50s, its tough to say exactly how much ice will accumulate on
road surfaces, but elevated surfaces and especially bridge decks
will be very susceptible to ice accumulation. Given the uncertainty
of ice accumulations exceeding .25" went with a Winter Storm Watch
through Friday morning, and will let the next shift get another look
at accumulations before committing to either a Warning or Advisory.
Ample mid level drying occurs by Friday afternoon, which should cut
off any additional accumulating rainfall. Concurrently diurnally
influenced surface temperatures will likely rise above freezing, so
any lingering precip Friday afternoon should fall as all rain.

Further to the south, within the KC Metro and areas along/south of I-
70, the cold air should not be cold enough at the surface to warrant
a strong concern for freezing rain. Instead this area should
receive widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain, with some areas receiving
2 to 3 inches south of I-70. With local soils and streams already
swollen from recent heavy rains it`s entirely conceivable that
numerous streams will go into flooding as a result of the rain
through Friday. Have issued a flood watch for the areas expected to
receive heaviest rainfall through Friday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 411 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015

This upcoming weekend continues to look rather messy as wintry
weather threatens to prolong its stay across the forecast area. The
aforementioned front (above) looks to stall out in the vicinity of
central MO, allowing for the continued precip chances well into the
weekend. As a cutoff low moseys across the central Plains, this will
help give a push to interrupt the constant stream of moisture
pooling into the region, finally allowing for a dry forecast by the
end of this forecast period.

Precipitation types, particularly this far out, are tricky to nail
down. What appears to be somewhat consistent is a warm layer above
the surface (in the lower layers) that wants to throw a wrench into
the precip types. Through the weekend, both the 12Z GFS and ECMWF
keep 850mb temps above freezing and model soundings depict a warm
nose hanging on overhead. Therefore, as surface temps fall below
freezing during the overnight hours, this opens up the possibility
of a wintry mix with freezing rain/drizzle and/or sleet as the
primary weather types. Of course, locations with deeper layer temps
above freezing will be rain. The models then deviate by the
beginning of next week with the ECMWF much colder aloft than the
GFS, introducing the chance for snow should thermal profiles support
this. Bottom line as mentioned from the beginning, messy wintry
weather looks to persist throughout the weekend and into early next

Look for high temperatures to hang out below normal for late
November into early December throughout the long-term period with
lows to generally respond accordingly.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015

MVFR conditions prevailing at the terminals tonight are likely as
nice as it`s going to get for the next 24 hours. Scattered showers
will spread across the terminals early Thursday morning with more
widespread rain expected later Thursday morning, persisting through
the rest of the day and much of the overnight hours. This will push
ceilings down progressively with much of the region under IFR
conditions by Thursday afternoon. Ceilings may drop even more as the
cold air behind the cold front moves Thursday evening. As for the
wind, the cold front will move through the terminals between 17Z and
20Z. Winds ahead of the front will be strong and gusty from the
south, with a quick change to strong and gusty from the northwest
behind the front.

Lastly, have included a bit of freezing rain in the TAF for KSTJ.
Cold air rushing in behind the front could result in freezing rain
developing --if it is still raining-- somewhere around midnight for
terminals in the far northwest corner of Missouri.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through late Thursday
     night for KSZ025-102.

     Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening for

MO...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through late Thursday
     night for MOZ001>005-011-012.

     Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening for



SHORT TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Cutter is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.