Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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793
FXUS63 KEAX 070951
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
351 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Forecast remains on track from previous package and only minor
adjustments were required. Shortwave ridging currently in place and
with a brief window of warming H85 temperatures and starting this
morning relatively warm, shouldn`t have much of a problem reaching
the upper 40s to middle 50s across the forecast area this afternoon.
Attention turns to approaching upper disturbance over the northern
plains that will dive southeast and rapidly amplify. This system
will bring two aspects of notable weather - gusty winds and light
but potentially impactful snow showers. Healthy pressure gradient
should yield gusty northwest winds today into Monday afternoon.
Sustained winds will exceed 20 kts this afternoon with higher gusts,
with sustained speeds in excess of 25 kts Monday afternoon. While we
will be just short of wind advisory speeds today, it`s looking
increasingly likely to reach criteria on Monday. Otherwise,
attention turns to snowfall potential tonight into Monday. As
described in detail in previous discussions, concern for showery,
convective-type snows are expected with this system with modest
instability within a deep dendritic growth zone. Several high-
resolution and CAMs infer this type of showery convection,
increasing confidence in forecast scenario. While overall moisture
is limited with this system and snowfall totals will average under
one inch, snowfall that does occur will feature higher than climo
snowfall ratios and quick-burst type snowfall, rapidly reducing
visibility in a short-period of time due to the convective nature.
These types of events are notorious for dangerous travel conditions
due to the spotty nature of no-snow versus a rapid deterioration of
moderate snowfall with poor visibility. This potential travel
impact, combined with the gusty wind speeds, are the primary
concerns to convey over the next 36 hours. The remaining portion of
the forecast looks quiet and dry with no notable weather systems
anticipated to impact the area. Temperatures will be much cooler
during the early work week, with gradually moderating temperatures
each day into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1105 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Winds around 2kft will steadily accelerate to 45-50kts overnight,
which coupled with moderate winds at the surface, will produce a
30kt speed shear until sunrise. Throughout the day, SW winds will
turn NW as a cold front crosses the area Sunday morning. Winds will
steadily increase through the afternoon, gusting to near 30kts during
the afternoon. Gusts should quickly drop off Sunday evening, though
increased sustained winds will continue through the end of the
period.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh



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