Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 301742
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1242 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 416 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Today - Wednesday:

Not much to hang one`s hat on to define where/when convection will
form or move in today. A weak and poorly defined warm front extends
from central NE through south central IA and northeast MO this
morning. Isolated/elevated convection aided by weak isentropic
ascent on the 305K surface has sputtered through the night across
the far northeastern counties. Think this lift will dissipate by mid
morning. Otherwise, think the CWA will be dry until this afternoon.
Inspection of local progged soundings reveals a very unstable
airmass with the CIN disappearing this afternoon. Short range
convective allowing models as well as GFS and NAM paint the picture
of hit and miss/pulse type convection. 0-6km shear is very weak so
convection will be sub-severe.

North TX MCS is heading towards the gulf and 00z/06z models not
handling this well which calls into question the vorticity max the
GFS and especially the NAM show over OK by 18z. For now will focus
on diurnally driven/pulse type convection. High temperatures should
be similar to yesterdays.

Overnight, convection generated along a weak cold front will likely
weaken as it heads towards northwest MO after midnight. This
activity could survive the typical morning dissipation phase and
sputter around before redeveloping in the afternoon. The
precipitation and how much/how long the convective cloud debris
linger will determine the degree of instability and later convective
potential/coverage. Even if we see moderate instability the severe
threat will again be muted by weak 0-6km shear in the 15-20kt range.

The cold front wont reach the region until Tuesday night as it
awaits the arrival of a moderately strong upstream shortwave. This
should ensure likely type PoPs into the evening hours.

Wednesday will start the transition to a drier period as the cold
front moves into central MO by late morning. Will keep high chance
PoPs over the southeast third of the CWA.

Thursday - Sunday:

A relatively uneventful and quiet period marked initially by drier
and more stable air arriving as weak high pressure builds into the
region. Temperatures will be near or slightly below seasonal
readings.

Faster northwest flow aloft resides across the north central and
Great Lakes states. Will need to monitor for any buckles in the flow
signaling a shortwave dropping southeast. GFS picks up on a feature
forcing a cold front through the mid MO River Valley late Saturday
whereas the ECMWF does not. Lacking confirmation and with the
blended approach only yielding below climatology PoPs will maintain
a dry forecast. Do see slightly warmer temperatures and an uptick
in humidity with the return of southerly flow.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Thunderstorms are slowly making their way northward into east-central
KS and west-central MO early this afternoon. Additional storms are
beginning to develop just south of the KC metro area and will
continue to lift north as well. Over the next couple of hours,
chances for storms to be in the terminals` vicinity will be on the
increase and have kept VCTS mention as such. IXD appears likely to be
the first one to see storms in the area, by about 19Z, with the best
storm chances occurring in the vicinity of the rest of the terminals
between 20Z through about 01Z. Will be monitoring to see if AMDs will
be necessary to include TSRA but given the loose organization of the
storms, didn`t have enough confidence to include direct impacts to
the terminals at this time. Winds will remain out of the south
throughout the TAF period with another round of storms possible later
tomorrow, likely beyond this TAF period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...MJ
Aviation...lg



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