Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 270819
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
319 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Main forecast challenge in the short term will be precipitation
chances this morning and again this afternoon as an area of showers
and storms continues to march across central KS. The weak wave which
forced the area of convection has since lifted to the northeast, and
support from the LLJ has also waned from west to east, leaving the
system without much support other than from its own cold pool
propagation. Some of the trailing stratiform has shown signs of
dissipation particularly on the western edge; however, recent cloud
top cooling and a resurgence in lightning activity does not bode
well for its near-term dissipation, and some sort of weak MCV is now
evident on radar near the northwest side of the precipitation shield
near Hastings. The general pattern and the development of the MCV
should support a more northeastward trend and hopefully a downswing
in intensity through the morning, so have still trended PoPs downward
as the showers and storms progress toward the CWA... but will keep
a wary eye on any precipitation that tries to impinge on areas that
have already experienced quite a bit of rainfall in the last few
days and particularly last night.

As precipitation dissipates later this morning, some remnant outflow
boundaries may linger somewhere in the vicinity of northeast KS and
northwest MO, depending strongly on when and where the precipitation
falls apart. Instability and deep moisture will continue to support
convection if some sort of feature can spark initiation, so will be
looking for boundaries to serve as a focus for isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, and have generally
broadbrushed the area with 25-40 PoPs during the afternoon and early
evening hours. Large-scale forcing will not be as supportive of
continued convection as the entire pattern shifts north and upper-
level high pressure becomes more prevalent across the eastern
Plains, so do not expect precipitation to become widespread or to
persist into the overnight hours tonight; and while very localized
flash flooding is definitely possible should a thunderstorm pass over
areas that are already very saturated from recent rain, the heavy
rain threat looks too marginal and too isolated to warrant any kind
of flash flood watch.

A few models indicate the potential for some nocturnal convection to
develop on the edge of the broadening upper-high on late tonight
into early Sunday morning, which could then push eastward and pull a
repeat performance of this morning`s challenges on Sunday; then, the
deja vu continues with little forcing but the possibility of outflow
boundaries and/or general warm-sector convection sparking showers
and storms throughout the afternoon and early evening Sunday and
again on Monday. The pattern breaks down a bit by Monday night or
Tuesday as low pressure dives into the Great Lakes region and allows
a bit more focused potential for storms during the daylight hours
Tuesday, but ridging builds in behind for the remainder of the
forecast period and makes precipitation chances more nebulous for
Wednesday through the remainder of the period. Temperatures will
linger around or slightly above normal with the upper-level pattern
supporting very warm conditions but with some moderation by clouds
and possible precipitation.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Main concern in the short term for all TAF sites will be the possible
development of IFR stratus and patchy fog due to local moisture
pooling from recent rainfall. Have tempo`ed the ceilings as they
develop over the next few hours, then gone prevailing IFR at MCI and
low-end MVFR at the other sites, but will need to watch and see how
low ceilings go and how far visibilities can drop as the situation
develops. Stratus and fog will gradually dissipate after sunrise as
south southwest winds begin to increase, then another round of
isolated thunderstorms will become possible as early as 20z Saturday
afternoon.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin


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