000
FXUS63 KEAX 151118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

In the short term, the only forecast challenge will be temperatures
as we return from near record lows this morning to strong southerly
flow and midlevel ridging by Wednesday. Temperatures will initially
be a bit slow to rebound this morning as a surface ridge drifts
slowly out of the region; however, light southerly flow by this
afternoon and ample sunshine should allow temperatures to recover
into the 50s to near 60 along our western border. Southerly winds
will be enhanced by an approaching clipper system on Wednesday,
allowing temperatures to top out in the 60s to possibly near 70 in
the west. Gulf moisture will also begin to return to the region on
Wednesday, and should dampen fire danger concerns associated with
the breezy conditions during the afternoon hours.

The aforementioned clipper system will drag a cold front through the
CWA by mid-morning Thursday, dropping temperatures gradually ahead
of an approaching shortwave trough. That trough will lift a broad
band of precipitation into the region during the daylight hours
Thursday, but continued southwest flow aloft and a quick departure
of the clipper system should keep precipitation type all rain over
the forecast area. However, the cold frontal passage and increased
cloud cover will keep temperatures in the 40s across most of the
area, except in the far southeast. Total rainfall amounts are not
expected to exceed a quarter to a half inch in most locations with
Thursday`s system.

Spring will return in earnest this weekend into early next week,
with warmer temperatures and some rain/t`storm chances Saturday
night through Sunday night as a shortwave trough pushes eastward
through the region. Beyond this morning, no widespread frost/freeze
is expected in the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Light west
winds will gradually turn to the southwest this afternoon, then
will increase between 00z-06z Wednesday morning. Sustained speeds
of 15-20 kts or greater will be possible by daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin