Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 111117
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
617 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 301 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2017

Broad cyclonic flow prevailing over the region this morning as
main upper trough continues moving through the northern Great
Lakes. Closer to home, weak cold front that sparked shwrs/storms
last night has pretty much stalled over the region this morning,
with latest radar trends still depicting scattered activity over
the area as weak shortwave energy combines with the front and
modest upper divergence in the upper right quadrant of a jetstreak
just to our north. With time this morning, expect activity to
eventually start settling to the south as high pressure attempts
to build in  from the northwest. As such, much of the day will be
dry following this morning`s activity with afternoon highs
climbing back into the lower 80s for most as skies attempt to
clear later in the day.

Latest models appear more optimistic for Saturday`s forecast as
most recent trends keep the bulk of any precipitation south and
west of the forecast area. This is likely in response to a more
westward positioning of a high pressure center to our north which
should lead to an influx of drier air as winds remain from the
north through much of the day. Despite this, ample sunshine should
allow temps to warm right back up into the lower 80s Saturday
afternoon. Unfortunately the forecast for Sunday looks a little
more pessimistic as a shortwave dropping into the upper Miss Rvr
Vly will lead to retreating high pressure to our east and a
northeastward push to the frontal boundary stalled to our west.
As a result, redeveloping shwrs/storms are possible by Sunday
afternoon across western portions of the forecast area.

Heading into next week, the weather looks to remain unsettled as
a series of weak shortwaves impact the central U.S. These features
combined with a lingering frontal boundary will lead to multiple
rounds of precipitation next week with the only dry day
potentially looking to be on Tuesday as potential MCS activity on
Monday leaves high pressure in its wake. In any event, temps look
to rebound towards more normal levels (upper 80s) my midweek as
zonal flow returns to the lower 48.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2017

VFR conditions expected through the fcst period with precip
chances coming to an end this morning. Expect north winds between
5-10 kts today with a developing fair wx CU field centered near
5 kft this afternoon. Otherwise, the influx of drier air
overnight should preclude the development of any VSBY
restructions.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32



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