Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KEAX 071757
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1157 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 258 AM CST WED DEC 7 2016

Mid-level clouds around 10kft have begun to filter into the area
producing light returns on the radar this morning. However, a very
dry sub cloud layer will limit anything that is falling as virga. As
we move through the morning hours though, top-down saturation will
occur eventually becoming moist enough for snow to reach the
surface. However, a lack of moisture and weak lift will keep any
accumulations minor. These minor accumulations will be observed
south of a MCI to Boonville line where a tenth of an inch to just
short of an inch is expected with the southern CWA seeing the heavier
amounts. This system will be a quick hitter with snow developing as
early as late morning and exiting the area by late this evening.

Expect strong cold air advection in the wake of this system ushering
in the coldest temperatures of the season tonight. Expect lows
tonight in the low to mid teens. Strong cold advection will continue
into Thursday keeping temperatures cold with highs in the low to mid
20s. Factoring in the wind chill values, temperatures will feel like
the single digits tonight and the teens on Thursday. Thursday night
the wind will subside as high pressure begins to build into the
region. This will make for very good radiational cooling and
consequently temperatures will drop into the upper single digits and
lower teens. Surface high pressure then remains over the area Friday
keeping highs in the mid 20s to near 30.

Warm air advection will get underway Friday night and Saturday
allowing for a more seasonal day on Saturday with highs in the mid
30s to lower 40s. This will be short-lived however, as a cold front
will move through the area Saturday night bringing the chance for
rain changing over to snow. Very minor snow accumulations may be
expected by Sunday. Highs Sunday and Monday will range in the upper
20s to the north to upper 30s south. Models then depict another
quick moving system moving through the area on Tuesday which may
again produce light snow and bring another round of cold
temperatures to the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CST WED DEC 7 2016

Bands of light snow with occasional MVFR/IFR visibilities and
ceilings will work east-southeast through east central KS and west
central MO through mid afternoon. The snow will end from northwest to
southeast. Further east towards central MO some flurries or very
light snow possible. VFR and dry conditions across northern MO.

Skies will clear overnight. VFR conditions will prevail on Thursday
with northwest winds picking up in the teens.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...MJ


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.