000
FXUS63 KEAX 012333
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
533 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

With this weekends precipitable weather wrapping up this afternoon
focus is on our next event which will arrive Monday night into
Tuesday, or Wednesday, depending on the model solution you look at.
Synoptic scale pattern has not changed much, with expectations that
the low swirling over the California coast will dip far enough south
to induce some warm air advection across the Plains States Monday
into Tuesday. Models had been advertising a decent amount of return
moisture along with the warmer air for the beginning of the work
week.

Monday will be dry and cool with readings near normal, though as we
transit into the overnight hours the cool surface high will slide
east allowing the digging trough well to our west to induce the
return flow. This could bring precipitation into eastern Kansas and
Missouri as early as Monday evening, and if this occurs we will have
a brief window of opportunity for some freezing rain/drizzle. Models
continue to advertise a decent warm nose advecting in over the still
cold boundary layer Monday night, even when going with an aggressive
non-diurnal temperature curve. Expect temperatures to be steady or
warming above freezing after midnight with 40s along the Kansas-
Missouri border by sunrise. These warm temperatures will surge up
into the 40s to around 50 during the daylight hours of Tuesday,
keeping most precipitation Tuesday of the liquid verity. However,
while confidence is high that temperatures will warm, what is not so
high is confidence in our actual POPs. Latest NAM runs are
significantly more dry along the Kansas-Missouri border, though they
still bring some scattered light precipitation to the region. Have
kept a bit closer to the the slightly more consistent GFS/ECMWF
solutions for now, but did trim POPs back along the western state-
line. Cold air will return Tuesday afternoon, likely resulting in a
non-diurnal temperatures curve and possibly bring enough cold air
back in to force a precipitation type conversion. However, current
thoughts are that any precipitation will likely end before the air-
mass cool enough.

While the potential for light freezing rain or drizzle is there
Monday night, especially across far northern Missouri, any icing
should not be much more than a glaze (few hundredths of an inch or
less), and with temperatures warming above freezing before sunrise
Tuesday we do not currently anticipate much issue outside the few
hours when the freezing rain is occurring.

Otherwise, cooler temperatures will prevail Wednesday and Thursday
as the West Coast trough moves through the Plains, allowing some
warm ridging to spread into Kansas and Missouri Friday and through
the weekend. Of note to watch; the 12Z NAM today was trying to
advertise a bit of a quick hitting snow storm occurring on the
leading edge of the cold airmass that will be sweeping across Kansas
and Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday. Not confident enough to
adjust the forecast based on this one model, GFS and ECMWF have
something similar but track the shortwave trough farther south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Light NW winds will become nearly calm and variable in direction over
the next 1-2 hours, then will gradually increase out of the ESE by
late Monday morning. A little patchy light fog isn`t completely out
of the question in snow-covered areas, but dry-air advection should
keep the potential for fog too small to mention in the TAFs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin