Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 152331
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
631 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY COOL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-70 WERE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST.
TOMORROW WILL BE COOL YET NICE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. THE CURRENT COLD FRONT WILL STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND SLOWLY MIX NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THE PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE, I MAINTAIN THE
ONGOING POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THE HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE RATHER
MILD AND BREEZY AS THE REGION BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
RAPIDLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUR BEST SHOT AT SEEING WIDESPREAD
RAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE BEST
LIFT/DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA, THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE SOURCE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS CURRENTLY HRCN ODILE. SUNDAY SHOULD
DRY OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Bkn MVFR cigs will be possible thru the first hour of the TAF pd then
will sct out by 01Z as high pressure is building into the region.
Skies will eventually clr tonight leading the way for radiational and
steam fog to develop at the terminals. Fog is expected to develop
around 08Z initially reducing vsbys to 4-5SM however fog is expected
to thicken at STJ and MCI producing VLIFR vis btn 09Z-13Z (vsbys are
expected to remain btn 4-5SM at MKC with the chance for IFR cigs btn
09Z-13Z). Visibilities will improve by 14Z-15Z as winds begin to pick
up for the SE btn 5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...73






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