Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 252323

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
623 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Issued at 144 PM CDT MON SEP 25 2017

An active pattern is slowly working its way closer to the local area
and will bring about a couple of changes that will affect both near-
term and long-term conditions. The first of which will be in the
form of precipitation chances ahead of a cold front, expected to
cross through northwest Missouri this evening, steadily pushing
through the remainder of the CWA through Tuesday morning.
Scattered thunderstorms have already developed ahead of the
boundary in northwest Missouri as of early Monday afternoon,
though will be slow to move eastward through the remainder of the
afternoon. Looking aloft, a broad upper level trough situated
over the western CONUS will eject a shortwave trough into the
Northern Plains today, while the main trough eventually forms a
closed low over the southwest by the mid-week. Once the shortwave
trough begins to push further eastward the stalled cold front over
southeastern Nebraska will gain momentum and approach northwest
Missouri this evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue ahead of and along the cold front as the boundary pushes
through central Missouri during the evening and overnight hours.
With that said, low level moisture availability may undergo a
slight weakening trend, thus limiting prolonged precipitation
chances for areas east of the I-35 corridor. Rain totals will
generally remain near 0.25" to 0.5" across eastern Kansas to
central Missouri, with amounts possibly approaching 1" near
extreme northwest Missouri. Still expecting sub-severe storms
along the front, considering minor instability by the time the
boundary arrives and weak wind fields aloft. Off and on rain
chances will continue through Tuesday as the front slowly makes
its way through central Missouri, while extensive low level cloud
cover is likely behind the frontal boundary until at least
Wednesday morning.

By that time, a much cooler air mass will have settled into place,
bringing slightly below normal temperatures into the region.
Expecting afternoon highs to top out in the low to perhaps mid 70s
through the remainder of the week, while overnight lows will
generally dip down to the low 50s. A secondary trailing cold front
may clip the CWA Friday night, which could send overnight temps
into the mid to upper 40s, particularly for areas north of the
Missouri River.

By the late weekend, the active pattern looks to resume with another
chance of showers/storms possible, though currently there is both
spatial and temporal discrepancy with the EC and GFS solutions. Have
thus maintained overall low PoPs during this time to account for
the uncertainty.


.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT MON SEP 25 2017

VFR conditions are expected to deteriorate late tonight and
tomorrow morning in low MVFR or IFR ceilings behind a much
anticipated cold front. That front is on the cusp of pushing
through KMCI and should continue to slowly sink southward through
the night. Precipitation chances will increase overnight as post-
frontal showers and occasional storms eventually spread eastward.
The lower ceilings are 100 or so miles behind the front, which
puts them in southeastern NE currently. These will slide southward
with time as well and should move into the area around sunrise
tomorrow and later. Winds behind the front will turn northerly
but should remain in the 5 to 10 kt range. Have timed the front
into MKC and IXD soon after forecast issuance but the front could
slow down and/or waft around, fluctuating the winds at these
sites overnight. Regardless, winds should be 5 to 10 kts on either
side of the front.




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