Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 251115
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
515 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 248 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2017

Despite some cloud cover early this morning, the precip has exited
the area and will remain dry through tonight. However, precip
chances look to return tomorrow as a vort max traverses through
behind an upper-level jet. Despite the similarities in the mid- to
upper-levels of the 00Z ECMWF to the GFS, Canadian, and NAM, the
ECMWF keeps the forecast area dry tomorrow while the other three
models are all indicating that enough moisture will be available
to produce precip. As for precip type, while initial precip type
could be snow early Sunday, temperatures will quickly rise,
reaching the mid to upper 40s by midday, thanks to warm air
advecting in under southerly to southwesterly surface flow. Much
of the precip should be out of the area by about midnight tomorrow
night, so other than a potential brief wintry mix once temps drop
after sunset, the dominant precip type for much of Sunday will be
in liquid form. Unfortunately, QPF values look low for this quick
shot so not anticipating the precip to make any real dents in the
continued dry conditions.

The next chance for precip arrives overnight Monday, ahead of a
developing surface low. Again though, QPF values look low late
Monday into Tuesday. With low temps forecast to be in the 40s for
much of the forecast area late Monday into early Tuesday, followed
by highs Tuesday well into the 50s and 60s, precip type will
likely be rain overnight and of course rain during the day.
However, as colder air pushes in late Tuesday into early
Wednesday behind a cold front, coupled with another round of
precip chances thanks to a shortwave trough rotating through,
precip types could transition to wintry in nature, with model
soundings indicating snow. The wintry precip chances look to be
short-lived though with high temps forecast to rebound well into
the 40s and lower 50s during the day on Wednesday. Dry conditions
are forecast to resume for the latter half of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 509 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2017

Although there had been some MVFR ceilings overnight, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Clouds
that had thickened and lowered at a few of the terminals early
this morning are already thinning back out. NW winds today will
become more southerly tonight as surface high pressure passes to
the south of the region. Look for mid-level clouds to clutter the
skies once more for the latter portion of the TAF period as a
disturbance approaches the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...lg



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