Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 042031
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
331 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

An upper ridge will keep the weather quiet and dry through Sunday
afternoon for the area. High temperatures will warm into the 90s
each afternoon this weekend, with heat indices creeping into the
upper 90s.

The ridge will begin to break down and flatten across the central
CONUS as a large upper trough moves into the northern Plains.
Operational model guidance continues to suggest a period of
unsettled wet weather for the forecast area Sunday night into middle
next week. As the initial upper wave lifts into the northern Plains,
an associated cold front will sage southward into the area,
eventually stalling as upper support quickly lifts away from the
region, with flow parallel respective to the front over the region.
This surface frontal boundary will reside across/near the CWA over a
multi-day period, with several upper waves rotating around the
longwave trough. This surface focus and upper ascent, along with
ample deep moisture, will be the catalyst for periods of showers and
thunderstorms across the area. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with the high PW values, and areas with repeated moderate
to heavy rainfall may become susceptible to localized flooding as
the multi-day event progresses. Specific locations and timing of the
heaviest precipitation still remain challenging to pinpoint, but the
overall signal certainly suggests periods of active weather ahead.
At this time, the severe weather potential looks low, as the
stronger shear for storm organization should remain well post-
frontal and separated from the stronger instability.

Chances for precipitation should gradually end as the aforementioned
frontal boundary sags south of the forecast area as the upper trough
progresses eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. Cooler and
drier air will advect into the region, with highs Thursday and
Friday in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR through the period. May see occasional gusts this afternoon
before speeds relax below 12kts this evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair/SB
AVIATION...Blair



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