Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 230855
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
355 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 348 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

Dry conditions will continue through Friday, courtesy of an
amplifying mid-level ridge directly overhead of the local area as
depicted on water vapor imagery. Persistent southerly flow will
maintain unseasonably warm Friday afternoon temperatures in the
upper 80s. Surface winds will become southeasterly through the
afternoon, which may act to provide slightly cooler temperatures
than Thursday. The more significant impact will reside with slightly
cooler dew points, with resulting apparent temperatures peaking only
a few degrees warmer than afternoon highs. Cloud cover will remain
at a minimum given the placement of the ridge, aside from diurnally
driven CU through the afternoon hours.

The primary short-term impact will then turn to Saturday as a
deepening mid/upper level trough currently approaching the Four
Corners region will lift into the Central/Northern Plains during the
weekend. Models continue to show reasonable agreement in the
placement and timing of the system in general. Enhanced CAA behind a
surface low across the Northern Plains will send a cold front
featuring a sharp thermal gradient into northwest Missouri Saturday
night. A noticeable drop in temperatures will affect areas behind
the front beginning Sunday for the western CWA, with widespread
cooler temperatures expected for the entire CWA by Monday, generally
in the upper 60s and low 70s. The main focus with this system will
be in the form of potentially heavy rain, with localized flooding
possible. PWATs will hover between 1.5 to 2 inches ahead of the
approaching frontal boundary. Models continue to suggest a more
progressive upper trough compared to previous runs, though the
persistent moist, southerly flow along the cold front will present a
prolonged rain event beginning Saturday afternoon and persisting
through Sunday. Expecting to see initial storms Saturday afternoon to
remain mostly isolated to scattered, as the frontal boundary will
remain well northwest of the local area, likely over southeastern
Nebraska, extending southwest into southwestern Kansas. Convergence
along the front will present greater storm chances Saturday night
into Sunday morning. The heavy rain potential will be most favored
during this time. Recent dry trends will help to minimize widespread
flooding concerns, though areas impacted by storms Saturday afternoon
may be sensitive to flash flooding Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Given the progressive nature of the upper trough, have
trimmed back expected rainfall totals. Generally expecting between 1
to 1.5 inches of rain through the late weekend across the western
CWA, with potentially higher amounts locally. Will also need to
monitor the potential for severe weather as the frontal boundary
pushes southeast Saturday night. Though instability will be lacking
during the frontal passage, wind fields aloft could favor strong to
marginally severe storms across northwest Missouri, with strong winds
being the primary hazard.

Rain chances will quickly decrease behind the front Sunday afternoon
across northwest Missouri, with the remainder of the CWA drying out
by Sunday night into Monday morning. Dry conditions will then
dominate next week as the stable, cooler air mass fills in behind
the frontal boundary. Cooler temperatures will also persist, with a
gradual warmup into the upper 70s expected by the end of the work
week as southerly flow returns to the area.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with only a few to
scattered high level clouds. Winds will generally be from the south
at 10kts or less.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...CDB


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