Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 202039
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
339 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Tonight:

On-going convection over northeast Kansas associated with pre-frontal
trough out ahead of main cold front still draped through central
Iowa into eastern Nebraska.  As upper trough begins to carve out
over Great Lakes this afternoon should see more of a southward push
on the surface boundary bringing the threat for thunderstorms into
the forecast area.  Convection will likely be scattered so going
40-50 percent PoPs tapering from northwest to southeast for this
evening still seems to be on track.

Although decent instability is noted particularly over northeast
Missouri thus far it has been insufficient to overcome weak capping.
In addition wind shear appears marginal and mainly confined to the
northeast of the forecast area.  With that said threat for severe
thunderstorms appears low, however isolated storms with some larger
hail or damaging winds certainly cannot be ruled out.

Sunday-Monday

Surface cold front forecast to push southward overnight and clear
the southern portion of the forecast area before 12z Sunday. Cooler
and drier air should settle into the region as surface high builds
in for Sunday and Monday.  High temperatures generally in the 70s
with lows in the 40s and 50s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

By late Monday night the surface ridge will begin to move east of
the area causing surface winds to come around from the
south/southeast, allowing for some moisture transport to flow back
into the area. With mid level ridging over the area expect the
forecast to be dry through at least Tuesday morning before the next
weak trough moves through for the middle part of next week. As the
trough approaches it will provide enough mid level ascent to give a
decent chance for some showers, however given that the moisture
transport doesn`t look impressive, and neither does the amount of
ascent expect rain to be generally light in nature. ECMWF hints that
the mid level trough will have a hard time sustaining it`s low
pressure through the late part of the week, which would suggest that
the mid level ridge would become the dominant feature for the late
part of the week. Once the ridge takes over, conditions should
become dry through the late part of the week. Temperatures through
the extended forecast should be near seasonal, with highs in the 70s
and lower 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Main forecast challenge for this forecast cycle will be timing
convection through TAF sites. On- going thunderstorm activity over
southeast Nebraska has been persistent but not widespread this
mornin. At this point not anticipating it to diminish significantly
so have bumped the timing up especially into STJ and MCI this
afternoon. Otherwise after surface front and thunderstorms push
through this afternoon and evening expect VFR conditions for the
remainder of the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Mitchell






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