000
FXUS63 KEAX 290530
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1130 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 615 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Near-record warm temperatures will be swept out of the region
tonight by a fairly strong cold front, which will pack a bit of a
punch with sharply colder temperatures and northwest winds gusting
between 25 and 35 mph after midnight. Thursday`s temperatures behind
the front will only manage a small climb into the 40s as cold air
continues to push into the region, and Friday`s highs will be even
cooler in the upper 30s to low 40s as colder air continues to filter
down.

We`re continuing to watch two systems that will push into the region
by Saturday, creating a pretty good potential for some much needed
precipitation throughout the CWA. Light precipitation will likely
develop out ahead of the southern wave on Saturday, but p-type
remains somewhat complicated. Based on the preexisting warm ground,
fairly warm (for late January) temperatures, and southerly winds/
warm-air advection regime, snow accumulations during the daytime
hours seem unlikely. Wet-bulb temperature profiles still indicate
periods of snow throughout the day, so have opted to continue the
rain/snow mix through much of the area, but at the same time have
hedged downward on the probability of snow due to surface wet-bulb
temperatures and the aforementioned relative warmth in place.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 615 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The later portion of the forecast period remains complicated with a
longwave trough deepening across the desert southwest and a
shortwave trough moving down out of Canada Rockies. These systems
will begin to merge Sat across the Plains with increasing WWA ahead
of the system. Previous models have a more pronounced shortwave
trough that would deepen as it moved out into the Northern Plains,
however, recent models runs have dampened this wave out as it
translates eastward. Ensemble analysis has a number of members
deepening the system and others dampening the system, thus there is
still limited consensus on shortwave evolution. If the shortwave
trough is dampened and surface low does not deepen, snow potential
will be limited. Temperature profile also proves tricky in
determining snowfall accumulations with colder air lagging a bit
near the surface. Depending on the depth of this warmer air,
precipitation could start out as a rain-snow mix and then
transitioning to all snow as colder air moves in behind the cold
front progged to move through the CWA Sat night. Precipitation will
gradually end Sun night from east to west as the system progresses
eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Gusty NW winds have moved in behind the cold front. Increased wind
speeds are expected through most of the TAF period with gusts up to
30kts. Could see local gusts up to 40kts at times in the early
morning hours Thursday. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will move in around
08Z near 2kft. Upstream observations indicate the potential for these
to lower to IFR at times, though with increased mixing, confidence is
low enough to exclude for now. Will see ceilings scatter out late
Thursday morning though gusty winds will continue through sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Welsh