Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 281116

616 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015

Issued at 615 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Latest radar and satellite imagery shows a complex of storms holding
together as it moves slowly east across Kansas. Radar trends indicate
that a MCV is developing out of this activity. This will likely have
a few affects on our forecast. For this morning this means the
potential for storms to hold together and make it into western
Missouri, despite the decrease in moisture, is rather high.
Additionally, while the activity associated with the currently
developing MCV will likely trend down through a late morning thanks
to diurnal trends, by early afternoon this may reverse itself across
northern Missouri as the MCV persists. Therefore have bumped POPs
back up into the likely category for the early afternoon hours.

Storms today will have plenty of moisture to work with, so will
likely put down fairly quick heavy rainfall totals of up to one to
two inches which could reinvigorate flooding in areas that are in flood,
or that have just recently left flooding. Additionally, severe
potential for this afternoon now looks a little better if the MCV can
hold together across northern Missouri. Advertised MUCAPE values
across northern Missouri this afternoon are in the 2000+ J/KG range,
though the reality is that they will likely not get that high due to
cloud cover, but the combination of enhanced low level shear under
the MCV with even modest MUCAPE values this afternoon indicate that
hail could be an issue along with locally strong winds from strong
rain driven down drafts.


Issued at 423 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Well, hope you enjoyed a nice dry Wednesday, cause it will likely
rain a bit each day (especially across areas near the Kansas-
Missouri border) today through Saturday. Early morning water vapor
imagery shows the axis of a shortwave ridge working east of Missouri
with a more extensive trough noted stretching across the
inter-mountain west. The warm air advection ahead of this trough on
the return flow across the Southern Plains has sparked a complex of
storms across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles into eastern Kansas
early this morning. Given that the current complex of storms is some
two counties from our forecast area, have timed in the leading edge
of the storms to arrive in extreme eastern Kansas between 12Z and
13Z. That said, the storms might not last east of the Missouri
border. Moisture values start to fall off quickly as you transit
across far northwestern Missouri; but think the current activity is
sufficient to justify categorical POPs along the border for a few
hours this morning.

Confidence on this mornings storms is rather high owing to their
proximity, but as we move into the afternoon hours confident is not
as high. Moisture advection and week isentropic lift will likely
persist through the day across eastern Kansas and northern Missouri,
but with no significant shortwave trough moving across our area or
obvious upper level jet support not sure how much activity may
persist or continue through the afternoon hours. Think the activity
might be scattered in nature this afternoon, meaning that while
storms will likely bubble up, not everyone will get wet. However,
any storms that do occur will have plenty of moisture to work with
as precipitable water values of >1.5" spreads east into Missouri
making any storms that occur today efficient rain makers. And, while
that could cause some local flooding issues the better chance for
widespread heavy rain and the resulting flooding looks to arrive
early Friday morning lasting through Friday night/Saturday morning
as the inter-mountain trough shifts into the Plains States. With
precipitable water values ranging near 1.7" by Friday afternoon,
heavy rain continues to be the looming threat for this late work
week weather, but Friday will also have some potential for marginal
severe weather as 0-3KM shear values will range around 20 to 30
knots with a decent diffluent flow aloft provided by the trough
digging into the western Plains as it moves out of the Rockies.
However, thoughts are that hail or locally gusty winds would be the
severe threats for Friday, though flooding from heavy rain is likely
the primary hazard.

Storms through Friday night will slowly start to shift east and fade
Saturday morning as the parent shortwave trough moves east into
Missouri, sweeping a cold front through our region. The threat of
storms will persist through much of the day Saturday as the front
slowly moves through, but our chances for rain should effectively
come to an end by late Saturday night.

Otherwise, expect below normal temperatures Saturday through Monday
thanks to the cool air filtering south behind the cold front; but
given that below normal for this time of year will put us in the
70s, you can expect a nice end to the weekend. Temperatures will
warm back to normal during next work week, with another chance for
starting mid-work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail for the next several hours, though after
sunrise some showers and/or thunderstorms may affect the terminals
for a few hours. Any stormy activity should move through or dissipate
late this morning but there will be a persistent chance of storms
through the afternoon hours due continued moisture advection on the
southerly wind today. However, have highlighted the best timing for
afternoon storms to occur between 23Z and 03Z this evening.
Otherwise, expect the wind through the day to veer from the
southeast to the south.




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