Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 151734
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1134 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 320 AM CST MON JAN 15 2018

Another band of snow is quickly shifting south across Kansas and
Missouri early this morning as a surge of cold air sweeps into the
Lower Missouri River Valley. This surge of cold air is due to the
shortwave trough that has swept into the base of a larger trough in
place across the center of the Nation this past weekend. The cold
air push has resulted in strong frontogenic forcing, and thus the
resulting snow, with current timing on the progress of the snow band
on radar and satellite indicating that the it will have shifted into
southern Missouri by 6 AM. So, while a quick inch or two of snow
will be possible by sunrise, making roads a bit slick this morning,
the only real issue for the daylight hours will be the falling
temperatures.

Once this mornings snow shifts into southern Missouri, the forecast
becomes dry for the work week, with changing temperatures the only
point of interest until next weekend when another another chance at
rain and snow will arrive. The trough in place across the center of
the Nation, responsible for our cold weather, will remain in place
for a couple of days, allowing a good blast of arctic air to waft
across the Plains States. This should keep temperatures falling
across the region through the day today, with a midnight high and
low likely. This will make Tuesday the coldest day of the week, and
with breezy winds expected to prevail this afternoon through Tuesday
morning, no changes are expected to the going Wind Chill Advisory
which starts along the Iowa border this afternoon.

Temperatures will begin to moderate starting Wednesday as a high
amplitude ridge over the West CONUS begins to break down. This will
allow a more progressive pattern to develop across the Nation by the
end of the work week, providing warmer conditions, and maybe even
rain, by next weekend as a shortwave trough moves west to east
across the Plains.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST MON JAN 15 2018

Primarily VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF
period, although some scattered to briefly broken CU may develop
right around the 3 kft level before lifting to around 4 kft. Winds
will remain out of the northwest, at sustained speeds around 15
kts with gusts in excess of 20 kts through at least sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday
     for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday
     for MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST Tuesday
     for MOZ001>008-011-012.

&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Laflin



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