Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 021958
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
258 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
Very warm temperatures and locally high moisture have been the main
focus this afternoon, resulting in heat indices climbing into the
mid 90s to lower 100s throughout the region. Surface heating has
also resulted in steep low-level lapse rates and the recent
development of isolated cu, but weak upper-level subsidence and a
lack of surface focus, in addition to a weakness in lapse rates
above 850 mb indicated on ACARS soundings, has so far squelched any
potential deep convective initiation across the region. A weak cold
front dropping southward across the region later this evening could
provide enough lift for a few isolated storms to get going, but the
front`s slower than forecast progression and the diurnal decrease in
instability after sunset may prevent widespread convection in the
majority of the area, as hires models have also begun to indicate.
Have delayed and reduced PoPs for this evening and tonight, and
pulled any mention of storms east after midnight.
A weak wave may push down on the nose of surface high pressure and
the northern edge of the elevated thermal ridge on Monday, fueling
storm development from eastern Nebraska through northern MO Monday
afternoon through the early evening. Storm chances are relatively
low, but a few isolated storms aren`t out of the question as this
weak feature pushes through the area. The aforementioned cold front
will settle and become stalled across the region sometime on Monday,
although its final position and how much it wavers across the CWA
are still in question. This boundary will become the focus for
convective activity in the days that follow.
For Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures are a blend of extremes
rather than a true forecast, and represent an astounding range of
possibilities depending on the position of the stalled frontal
boundary and clouds/precipitation associated with said boundary.
Greater than 50 PoPs seem reasonable Tuesday through at least the
first half of Wednesday as a strong, slow-moving shortwave trough
passes over the front, and at least 30 PoPs can`t be ruled out
stretching through Thursday depending on how long the front lingers
in the region and how quickly the Tuesday/Wednesday wave departs. In
the wake of the system late in the work week through the coming
weekend, temperatures will be slow to recover but precipitation
chances will generally decrease.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period.
Winds will remain sustained at 10 to 14 kts out of the southwest this
afternoon, then will begin to diminish by late afternoon to early
evening. A cold front will gradually settle southward tonight into
early Monday morning, creating light and variable winds in the KC
area during the morning hours Monday. Little to no precipitation is
expected with the front, but scattered to broken accas is possible.