


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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933 FXUS63 KEAX 262021 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 321 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across NE Kansas and NW Missouri. - Locally moderate to heavy rainfall possible this evening into late tonight. - Hot and humid conditions continue through Sunday. - Showers and storms likely for Sunday evening/night. - Temperatures should cool a bit down toward seasonal normals (upper 80s) for Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Water vapor and 500 mb height analysis shows a shortwave trough moving eastward across the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, a weak surface cold front is moving eastward across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS, with a surface low moving into southern MN. With strong surface heating and dew points in the lower 70s, a corridor of 4000-4500 J/kg of surface based CAPE has developed across far NW Missouri and NE Kansas this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have already initiated across this area out ahead of the front, with these storms moving to the east northeast. While shear is weak (only around 15 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear), steep low level lapse rates and DCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg should support a damaging wind threat this afternoon and early evening. As such, a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect through 9 PM tonight for portions of extreme NE Kansas into NW and northern Missouri. By later this evening, a cluster or line/broken line of storms is likely to develop along/near the front across far NW Missouri, and move to the southeast through the late evening hours into the early overnight hours. The main concern with this secondary convective development will likely be the threat for moderate to heavy rainfall, as PWATs are forecast to reach close to 2". The 12z HREF had probability matched means on the order of 1.5" to 2.5" across a decent swath of the CWA, with localized rainfall amounts up to 4". Biggest concerns will be moderate/heavy rainfall over the areas that received the 5+ inches of rain from Monday night into Tuesday evening, as well as across the Kansas City metro. Due to these reasons, went ahead and issued a flood watch from 5 pm this afternoon through 3 am Friday morning for much of the CWA as a precaution. Hot and humid conditions continue tomorrow for most locations (likely slightly cooler across northern and NE Missouri behind the front), with afternoon heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. A few afternoon showers and storms may be possible again, primarily south of Interstate 70. The 18z HRRR does suggest the potential for robust convection to fire along a remnant outflow boundary or differential heating boundary by early to mid tomorrow afternoon across the KC metro, with wind gusts up to 40 mph and moderate rainfall possible, but we will see how things evolve tonight into tomorrow morning. Hot and humid again on Saturday, with afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees (best chance for 100+ degree heat index across NW Missouri). While current grids show only slight chance afternoon PoPs toward the Ozarks, some guidance (namely the ECMWF) suggests higher precipitation chances. Better chances for showers and storms, including some locally moderate rainfall, arrives on Sunday evening/night as a low amplitude trough moves across the northern Plains, amplifying as it moves toward the Great Lakes, and sending a cold front toward and through our CWA from the northwest. The front may stall out across southern portions of the region as we head into Monday, keeping rain chances in the forecast through Monday afternoon. Cooler temperatures will come behind the front, with highs back down toward seasonal normals (upper 80s) for Monday and Tuesday afternoon. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Currently VFR at all terminals with breezy SSW winds with gusts up to 25 knots. These conditions should continue through the afternoon hours. A cluster of thunderstorms is likely to develop by late afternoon across NW Missouri, moving through STJ between roughly 1z and 4z tonight, MCI between 3z and 6z, and MKC and IXD between 4z and 7z. These storms could produce a few strong wind gusts up to around 50 to 55 mph, especially at STJ. Rainfall could be moderate to heavy at times, with VIS dropping to as low as 2SM or so. After the storms exit by late tonight, VFR conditions and dry weather is expected for the remainder of the period, with relatively light southwesterly winds. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ001>007-011>016- 020>024-028>031-037-038-043. KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ025-057-102>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMW AVIATION...BMW