Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 170439
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1139 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 253 PM CDT SUN JUL 16 2017

A few passing, diurnally-driven thunderstorms are possible in
northeast MO this afternoon along a southward-sinking boundary,
but are not expected to become strong and will likely dissipate
as surface heating decreases this evening. Beyond that, the
remainder of the forecast period is expected to be dry as the
upper ridge builds and expands across the eastern Plains.

Heat and humidity continues to be the main concern throughout the
forecast period, when air temperatures may brush the triple digit
mark several days in a row and heat indices will rise into the 105
to 110 degree range. The hottest days will be Wednesday through
Friday when the thermal ridge axis slides southward and into the
forecast area, but near-advisory criteria conditions are possible
Tuesday through Saturday. Will likely issue an excessive heat
warning for the entire CWA due to the longevity of the event, but
have stuck with the watch for now to allow for better refinement
of the area and dates.

The ridge will likely begin to break down by Sunday, but may not
result in a significant pattern change going forward into next
week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT SUN JUL 16 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period. scattered high level
clouds from convection earlier in the evening will move through
early in the period and then clear out later in the night.
Tomorrow, a few to scattered diurnal CU tomorrow are expected.
Winds will remain light through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for MOZ020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...CDB



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