Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 210504

1204 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Issued at 309 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Seasonably warm, dry conditions will continue across the region
through at least Wednesday evening as upper-level ridging slides
eastward over the Plains, and weak southerly flow returns at low
levels. The main focus in the forecast period will be the only real
chance for precipitation, which will come with a trough moving into
the central U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday.

The trough, still just offshore, will head eastward over the next
several days and will eventually send a surface cold front east to
west across the forecast area. The latest model trends have been to
speed this feature up just a bit, but still not expecting anything
in the KC area and points east before midnight Wednesday night, and
also not anticipating that the system will speed up any more as it
moves onshore. Around 200-300 J/kg of elevated instability may be
available across eastern KS and far western MO during the Wednesday
night - early Thursday morning timeframe so have also added isolated
thunderstorms back into the forecast before 12z Thursday. After 12z
Thursday, the potential for thunder, precipitation chances, and
possible precipitation amounts will all gradually decrease as the
front heads east and surface convergence weakens.

After the parent trough exits the region to the east, above normal
temperatures and dry conditions are expected for the remainder of
the forecast period. Highs will likely reach the mid to even upper
70s this weekend through early next week, and lows should remain in
the upper 40s to lower 50s most nights.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the forecast
period. Calm overnight winds and cool temperatures could bring about
a good scenario for fog development at KSTJ. This has been the case
during the previous two forecast periods when conditions were even less
favorable than this setup. For the KC area terminals, expecting a
possible MVFR fog development. However, KMCI is currently showing a
20 degree temperature/dew point depression. Will keep an eye on the
direction of the current behavior and will amend the TAFs if
necessary. Otherwise, winds will pick up slightly Tuesday morning as
they begin their transition to southeasterly.




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