Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 271119
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
619 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

High pressure will dominate the region today and keep things
generally dry. However, there could be a few stray showers or storms
during the afternoon as a subtle vort max swings through on the back
side of a Great Lakes upper trough. Lapse rates will keep instability
very limited today so any activity that does develop should be
isolated and weak. Otherwise mostly sunny skies will be the rule
today with seasonably pleasant temperatures around 80.

A stronger upper wave will rotate into the area on Sunday and send a
weak front into the forecast area during the afternoon and evening.
Winds won`t return from the south/southwest until about 12 hours
before frontal passage so there won`t be a lot of time for
significant moisture advection into the region. This will be the
primary limiting factor for any strong or widespread storms along the
front. However, shear will be supportive of strong to severe storms,
possibly even supercells, so we`ll need to keep an eye on Sunday`s
severe potential in case moisture and instability ends up a bit
higher than forecast. NAM is being particularly aggressive with
moisture pooling ahead of the front, bringing mid 70s dewpoints into
the region which produce CAPE values as high as 3500 J/kg in the
model. This seems a bit high given the limited time for such moisture
to advect in, but the NAM has been correct with pre-frontal moisture
pooling with other systems this season so we`ll see.

Dry weather returns for Monday and Tuesday while warmer air
spreading in off the High Plains will keep things seasonably warm
with temperatures in the upper 80s. A slight deamplification of
northwesterly upper flow by midweek will place the forecast area in a
potentially stormier pattern which could last into the holiday
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

Could see isolated showers or a storm over parts of MO today but
mostly to the east of KC and coverage will be very light. Otherwise
dry weather through the period with light north winds switching from
the south this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel





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