Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 172351
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
651 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For tonight a trough moving through the Northern Plains into the
upper Midwest will set the stage for thunderstorms to develop well
northwest of the CWA. I left the inherited low chance pops in for
tonight as several of the higher res models depict a decaying storm
complex to move in out of Nebraska into our far northwest and north
central zones near and after midnight tonight. Not expecting
anything severe with the activity for our CWA. Otherwise most of the
CWA should see skies slowly clear with calm winds. Patchy fog may
form again very late tonight for areas that do clear out for a period
of time before sunrise.

Tomorrow will see the return of warm to what will be hot temperatures
by mid-week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region behind
the departing upper Midwest trough. There may be several isolated to
scattered showers of storms as we start the morning mainly well north
of I-70 with continued low chances through tomorrow night.
After Monday each day will become increasingly warmer with the
possibility of isolated showers and storms. Heat indices should reach
the upper 90s to low 100s Wednesday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Operational models not handling the central NE convective complex
very well. 18z NAM comes closest. Even Hi-Res models not capturing
the ongoing convection particularly well. Will be tracking the
expanding convective cloud debris which will affect fog development
later tonight. Current thinking is NE convection will begin
diminishing by late evening as it tracks southeast. Isolated
convection could reach far northwest MO by sunrise. Convective cloud
debris likely to thin as the convection weakens overnight. Should the
cloud cover arrive faster and thicker than expected then MVFR fog
will be difficult to achieve. And if the cloud cover thins
considerably and arrives later then IFR/dense fog becomes possible at
KSTJ. For now will leave the current MVFR fog in the forecast and
monitor trends.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...MJ






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