Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 041726
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1126 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 405 AM CST SUN DEC 4 2016

A widespread area of rain showers has developed ahead of an
advancing shortwave now centered over the Central Plains. This
activity will continue to build over the area through the early to
mid morning hours Sunday before quickly exiting by the late morning
hours. Thus far, rain totals have been relatively marginal,
generally a quarter of an inch or less. Expecting rain totals of
around half an inch for areas across northwest to north central
Missouri with lesser amounts elsewhere by the time all is said and
done. Not anticipating much in the way of wintry mix at this point
with residual activity through Sunday morning. Dewpoints have
increased a degree or two above freezing in the most prone areas,
though some areas far north could still see a mix of rain and snow
in the early morning hours.

Conditions will improve from west to east through the late morning
to afternoon as cloud cover also quickly erodes by the mid
afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon will be slightly warmer than
Saturday given the clearing skies, particularly for eastern Kansas
and western Missouri. Values will range from the lower 40s for the
northern counties into the mid to upper 40s for areas along and
south of the Missouri River. A weak mid-level ridge will advect over
the area Monday and push temperatures into the lower 50s across the
area and will maintain dry conditions through the early week.

The well advertised significant change in the pattern will then
occur Tuesday as an arctic air mass begins to enter from the
northwest Tuesday morning. Have removed pops along the cold front as
moisture will remain limited during the frontal passage. The
southwestern cutoff low will also eject into the lower Mississippi
River Valley and support rain showers across central to southeastern
Missouri early Tuesday morning. Temperatures behind the frontal
boundary will begin a downward trend Tuesday and persist through the
remainder of the work week.

Models continue to show reasonable agreement with the timing and
placement of a broad upper trough moving through the Central Plains
by Wednesday afternoon. The introduction of the NAM solution during
this time frame also resembles what the EC has advertised over the
course of the last few days as to the scope of a potential mid-week
winter weather event. Though the GFS and NAM solution is roughly six
hours faster than the EC in the placement of a vort max across south
central Kansas, confidence is increasing in the development of this
feature, along with a band of 850 hPa frontogenesis extending west to
east across eastern Kansas into central Missouri. The typical wild
card feature being the thermal profile for snow potential, will be
removed from the equation during this event as the profile would
support all snow during the entire evolution of the event. Will need
to continue to monitor this potential setup, though confidence is
increasing for accumulating snow Wednesday. Beyond this event, cold
temperatures will remain fixed over the area until a brief warming
trend begins by the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST SUN DEC 4 2016

Any lingering light rain/snow will clear out of the Kirksville-
Moberly corridor within the hour, leaving a swath of widespread low
ceilings for most of the remainder of the afternoon across eastern KS
and much of MO. Most of this should stay just above 1000 feet but
some pockets of IFR are possible especially north and east of KC.
Clearing skies this evening could allow for pockets of fog/haze, but
elevated winds should keep this from becoming a widespread concern.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Hawblitzel



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