Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 232059

259 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

Issued at 258 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

In the near term, fire weather will continue to be a bit of a
concern across extreme northwest MO where dewpoints have fallen into
the upper teens to lower 20s and temperatures have risen to near 50,
resulting in RH values close to 30 percent. Breezy southwest winds
should drop off within the next few hours, ending any lingering
wildfire danger.

A brief wind shift to the northwest is expected tonight as a weak
shortwave trough pushes into the Great Lakes; however, this feature
will only help prevent temperatures from falling as winds increase
after 06z and keep the boundary layer mixed. Ridging will then
squeeze into the central and eastern Plains ahead of a quickly
approaching clipper system, allowing winds to return to the west
southwest and temperatures to climb into the 50s area-wide tomorrow
afternoon. Increasing dewpoints should also accompany the increased
temperatures, preventing any additional fire danger.

Recent trends have been to edge the aforementioned clipper system
back a bit further west; however, measurable precipitation is still
expected to remain north and east of the KC metro area. Have added
in a few sprinkles as far southwest as KC during the evening and
early overnight hours for a period of modest lift and at least some
midlevel saturation, and raised PoPs across our northeast where
model consistency has been high for at least 0.01" of light rain.

After Sunday`s system exits the region to the east, no additional
precipitation is expected through the remainder of the forecast
period. Northwest flow will briefly set back temperatures for
Sunday, but warming will begin once again by Monday afternoon and
will continue into midweek. Enhanced southwesterly winds ahead of
another approaching shortwave trough will combine with 925 hPa
temperatures as high as +10 to +11 C, possibly mixing afternoon highs
into the lower 60s across southwestern portions of the CWA. Briefly
cooler temperatures may be possible by late next week, but model
discrepancies are too high to estimate how much temperatures might
fall and how long the cooler temperatures may persist.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period.
A band of scattered cirrus will drop southeast through the region
today, with bases between 15-25 kft. Southwest winds of 10 to 15 kts
will diminish around sunset, then will veer to the northwest at 10 to
12 kts between 06z and 12z Saturday.




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