Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 170001
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
701 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 326 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2017

A band of showers and thunderstorms has developed just west of
I-35 this afternoon where the atmosphere has acquired some
weak/moderate instability. This activity has developed near a weak
mid-level impulse moving into western Missouri, but should
gradually weaken over the next few hours as it encounters a deeper
low-level stable layer over western and central Missouri.
Meanwhile the primary surface cold front is approaching the far
northwest tip of Missouri where a rather sharp temperature
gradient is separating mid/upper 80s over KS and MO from
mid/lower 60s across Nebraska. This boundary will slowly make its
way into northwest Missouri this evening and eventually reach the
I-35 corridor around 3 AM. The band of rain and storms that has
developed out ahead of the front is stabilizing the airmass over
KS and MO somewhat, but clearing and resulting destabilization
further west could still allow for a few stronger storms across
areas from near Topeka to just north of St Joseph later this
afternoon and this evening. Shear is rather weak so brief gusts to
50-60 mph and perhaps some marginally severe hail will be the
primary threats across these areas.

Storms may increase in coverage overnight as they push into
eastern KS and western/northern MO and become aided by a stronger
midlevel wave to the north, but with instability becoming
elevated they will likely lose some of their punch. Still, it
wouldn`t be surprising to see some hail approaching an inch in a
few of the stronger storms through midnight or so, along with some
locally heavy rainfall. The front will become stalled just south
of US 50 on Sunday, and while a few storms are possible near this
boundary through the afternoon, the primary focus for additional
convection won`t arrive until after dark Sunday evening when a
secondary mid-level impulse will move in from the southwest. Some
locally heavy rainfall is again possible with this activity
especially near the slowly retreating boundary, but the lack of a
strong low-level jet should keep the overall heavy rain/flash
flood threat on the low side. A series of weak upper-level
impulses will continue to stream into the area through Monday
evening keeping rain chances around through at least early
Tuesday.

Tuesday evening appears to be the most likely time to see a dry
period before another cold front brings another potential round of
storms to the area on Wednesday and into early Thursday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 0701 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2017

Thunderstorms are expected to form along a cold frontal boundary
over NW Missouri in the next couple hours. These storms will move
SE along the cold front and into the terminals around 4-6Z. MVFR
ceilings are expected to accompany the frontal boundary and a
winds shift to the NW is also expected. The storms are expected to
weaken and move to the SE out of the TAF locations by 10Z, but
MVFR ceilings will remain in place. IFR ceilings will push in
behind the cold front as winds shift to the N at 5-10kts. These
ceilings will remain in place until temperatures warm up and they
lift into MVFR ceilings over the region through the end of the
period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Barham


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