Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 102316

616 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

Issued at 313 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

For tonight, have substantially decreased the chance for storms
across the region due to lingering dry air, weak subsidence, and a
further west/weaker LLJ than previously anticipated. Most model
guidance is now pointing to a dry forecast for the CWA tonight, but
have kept in some low end PoPs to avoid completely ruling out some
nocturnal convection, especially closer to the LLJ in northern MO.

Hot temperatures and mainly dry conditions are still expected for
Friday and Saturday as an upper ridge builds across the central
Plains and a warm front pushes just north of the CWA. A few storms
are possible near the front across far northern Missouri, and have
kept PoPs into the northern 1-2 tiers of counties to cover any
southward outflow boundary propagation, but overall much of the area
should be dry through at least Sunday morning. Storms on the warm
front could become strong to severe Saturday afternoon and evening,
but may remain north of the CWA border.

The main question for Sunday/Monday will be how the cold front
progresses southward as an upper trough dips southward. With no
outside influence from convection the boundary should move through
later Sunday evening through early Monday; however, if some sort of
a convective complex or MCS heads south late Saturday night into
Sunday morning, it could push the effective front southward by
Sunday. Additionally, any lingering cloud cover on Sunday could
inhibit thunderstorm initiation along the boundary Sunday afternoon
and evening. Have stretched PoPs from Saturday evening though
Monday, but could come in several rounds with varying degrees of
strength, depending on how the frontal passage evolves. A few strong
to possibly severe storms are possible as the upper jet sinks
southward and increases deep layer shear to 50-60 kts, but will
depend on the amount of available instability.

Much cooler temperatures and dry conditions will begin Tuesday
behind the front, and continue through the end of the forecast
period. Near record lows are possible both Tuesday and Wednesday
nights, and highs should be unseasonably cool in the 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

VFR conditions expected to prevail. Chances for thunderstorms
continue on a decreasing trend for the area, with the highest
probabilities remaining to the north/west of terminals late tonight.
A couple models hint at patchy fog or haze prior to sunrise, but
confidence not high enough for mention in forecast at this time.




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