Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 212352
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
552 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 245 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

Light rain is spreading northeast across Oklahoma and southern KS
this afternoon in response to weak ascent ahead of an upper wave
over west Texas. Most of the synoptic-scale lift associated with
this feature will stay to the south of the area overnight so that
the highest rain chances will stay across southern into eastern
Missouri. However, a weak elevated boundary will lift north
toward the KC- Kirksville corridor later this evening and should
be enough to produce a few light showers overnight. Any
precipitation that makes it this far north will have to battle a
dry layer between 700 and 900 hPa, so any rain should be fairly
light with only a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall at most.

Light winds could favor a few areas of fog later this evening
especially north of the Missouri River where skies will remain
clear longer. Winds will be quick to become northerly as this
system passes to our south overnight and will steadily increase
through the morning Sunday. This cold air advection pattern will
result in a very shallow inversion over northern MO with the
potential for another round of overnight fog. However, given the
increasing winds, it`s very possible that this moisture will turn
into a very low cloud deck instead. Right now it doesn`t look like
fog should be as widespread as the past two nights but it`s worth
keeping an eye on.

The weather pattern will become fairly quiet through Tuesday with
broad upper level ridging building into the Plains. This will keep
temperatures a few degrees cooler on Monday (but still well above
average) then returning into the 50s for much of the area on
Tuesday. Low pressure tracking to the north of the area Tuesday
night could produce a few light showers, possibly even a few snow
showers Wednesday and Wednesday night as cooler air filters in.
Any precipitation amounts during this period would be very light
and snow accumulation isn`t expected. Cooler air behind this
system will keep temperatures close to average for the remainder
of the week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at CST SAT JAN 21 2017

Vicinity showers expected for the next few hours, with a TEMPO
for prevailing light VFR rain. Then the uncertainty of the
overnight VIS takes over. There is some indication that there
could be more MVFR/IFR fog, but with the passing stratus it
doesn`t seem likely. Will keep an eye on it through the evening
and see how it looks for 06z. There are some hints at some
stratus tomorrow behind the front. Started indicating a direction
toward low clouds for Sunday morning, but not confident enough at
this point to forecast prevailing sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Leighton



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