Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 260851
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
351 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 350 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

Yesterday`s cold front, currently along a line from Kirksville to
Butler MO, has shifted winds to the northwest and is ushering in
cooler temperatures. Highs should only make it to the upper 50s in
central MO and low 50s in western MO/eastern KS. Post-frontal
showers, mainly south and east of I-35, are expected to linger for
most of the day as the upper-level trough moves through. Storms
will be possible in south-central and eastern MO and a couple
could become strong with small hail and gusty winds being the
primary concerns. Late tonight, skies will begin to clear and
temperatures are expected to drop below normal across KS and
western MO. In KS and far western MO temperatures may dip into the
mid to upper 30s and therefore, could see some patchy frost early
Thursday morning. Did not issue a frost advisory at this time
because it seems to be patchy but will re-evaluate later today.

The dry weather will be short-lived, due to an active weather
pattern setting up in the Intermountain West. Thursday evening, on
and off rain chances return as a broad upper-level trough begins
to deepen and send energy pulses over the area. At the surface, a
low pressure system will be taking shape, advecting warmer air and
moisture into the area. On Friday, the surface low and cold front
will move through our area. The front will stall out, most likely
in southern MO, and will be the focal point for showers and
storms for the rest of the weekend. The boundary may be where the
rain is most widespread and continuous, but northern MO and KS
will still see a fair share of rain, thanks to the upper level
trough providing the required lift. The boundary won`t move very
much until Sunday, when the upper-level trough finally enters the
Central Plains. The system will become negatively tilted and move
to the north-northeast, exiting the area by Monday. Over the
entire weekend, areas along and south of I-70 may see 2-3 inches
or more of rain, with areas north of I-70 seeing up to 2 inches of
rain. Therefore, flooding could be a concern, especially along
and south of I-44.

Things will dry out Monday, but another system looks to return
Tuesday into Wednesday.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

MVFR ceilings are expected move into the area at the beginning of
the period with some isolated showers and embedded thunderstorms
moving through on the backside of a cold frontal boundary. The
precipitation is expected to move out of the area around 10Z about
the same time an area of IFR ceilings are expected to move into
the general area. Some upstream observations are showing IFR
conditions so a TEMPO from 10-13Z was added to show this trend.
Ceilings will start to slowly rise throughout the day becoming VFR
in the evening timeframe. Some guidance is showing a chance of
isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, but with the
amount of uncertainty in this happening it was left out of the
TAFs for now.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...CDB/Barham


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