Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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862
FXUS63 KEAX 281748
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1248 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 359 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

Relatively quiet weather is expected through tonight. An initial
surface front has pushed south of the forecast area with a secondary
cold front located over far northwest Missouri. The air behind this
boundary is much drier, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s
in east central Nebraska. Surface winds are fairly light this
morning, and with small dewpoint depressions, the potential for
patchy shallow fog will exist over the remainder of the pre-dawn
hours. A subtle shortwave trough is currently located over southeast
Nebraska, but do not anticipate any appreciable weather with this
feature. Temperatures this afternoon will reach seasonable levels,
but with slightly drier air advecting into the area, may feel a
little more tolerable. Attention turns upstream to a disturbance
currently over Wyoming. Operational models have been very consistent
at developing a MCS this evening over the Nebraska High Plains,
tracking southeastward into central Kansas. While the far southwest
sections of the CWA may see a glancing influence in the form of
scattered showers or storms, the majority of this activity is
expected to remain well west of the forecast area.

Northwest flow pattern remains on Friday, and subtle disturbances
may provide for isolated to scattered convection, although
probabilities are much higher that the majority of the area will
remain dry. Temperatures are expected to remain slightly below
normal with highs in the lower to middle 80s. The influence of
surface high pressure should keep things relatively dry through
Saturday, with temperatures only slightly increasing. The pattern
begins a change by the end of the weekend, with perhaps our best
chance of precipitation coming Saturday night through Sunday night
in the form of warm air advection. Heights will quickly increase
with isentropic ascent focused on our area, providing a chance for
thunderstorms during this period. Thereafter, an upper level ridge
firmly establishes itself over a large portion of the central CONUS,
returning above normal temperatures and humidity for the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

Main concerns going forward this afternoon involve renewed chances
for convection...especially during the overnight hours as an MCS
likely tracks southeast through the Central Plains. Prevailing thought
right now is that the bulk this activity will track from central
into southeastern Kansas...which agrees well with latest high-res
model guidance. As a result...have elected to hold off on a VCTS
mention for area terminals through the overnight...however radar
trends and later model runs may may facilitate an opposite approach
later on. For now though...confidence remains too low for inclusion.
Otherwise...VSBY restrictions possible once again at STJ during the
early morning hrs but increased cloud cover from Central Plains
convection may limit nocturnal cooling overnight. As a
result...have left restrictions in the MVFR category for now.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...32



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