Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 271123
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
523 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 325 AM CST MON FEB 27 2017

Widespread freezing fog is being reported from Kirksville through
St. Joseph and locations southward. With a number of sites
reporting visibilities of about a 1/4 mile or less, have hoisted a
Dense Fog Advisory for much of the forecast area. This is all in
thanks to a ridge axis directly overhead, allowing for light to
calm winds, clear skies, and just about no dewpoint depression.
By mid-morning, the fog will dissipate, leaving behind mostly
clear skies for much of the day, before cloud cover moves in
later.

A warm front lifting north across the area later today into
tonight will bring the chance for rain. With some marginal
instability also working its way into the area later on, could
hear some rumbles of thunder tonight. Once this round moves
through, will likely see a brief break early Tuesday before a
diverse weather day sets up. Cold front pushing its way through
the region on Tuesday, coupled with 60+ kts. of 0-6km shear and
ample instability, all look to combine for thunderstorms to
develop, possibly strong to perhaps severe, for the southeastern
third to two-thirds of the forecast area. In this morning`s SPC
outlook for Day 2, the slight risk area has been brought into the
forecast area; should models continue to slow the fropa down,
wouldn`t be surprised to see a further northward extension of
strong to possibly severe activity. On the backside of the front,
mid-level trough (associated with its parent shortwave
trough aloft) rotating through will provide an additional
focus for more precip chances. The biggest question for this final
punch of precip will be the type and timing of transitioning from
liquid to frozen (most likely snow) form. While the northwestern
third of the forecast area could see snow late Tuesday into early
Wednesday, indications are leaning toward not much accumulating in
this forecast area given the slower progression of the colder air
moving in. Plus, anything that does accumulated will be short-
lived given the rebound of temps expected on Wednesday. Essentially,
uncertainty is still large in the spatial and temporal details.
The general trend has been pushing the band of precip that the
models develop further and further north, which corresponds with
the northward push of thunderstorm activity. It certainly is a
complex forecast specifically for this forecast area given the
dynamic situation that looks to be setting up from southeast
(storms) to northwest (winter weather) for tomorrow. Once the
precip moves out on Wednesday, look for dry conditions to return
for the remainder of the week.

With WAA ramping up today into tomorrow, highs this afternoon
will again rise well above normal for late February, reaching the
upper 50s to mid 60s from north to south, respectively. Lows
tonight will be nearly 20 degrees warmer as compared to this
morning and highs on Tuesday will soar well into the 70s for many
locations. While the cold front will bring in cooler air, it`ll
simply be cooler in the sense that temps will level back out to
near normal for this time of year. By next weekend, the well above
normal temps look to return for at least a few days.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 515 AM CST MON FEB 27 2017

LIFR conditions have been dominating this morning, thanks to fog
that developed overnight across the area. The fog is expected to
dissipate by mid-morning, allowing for VFR conditions to prevail
for much of the day. However, as a warm front lifts north later
today into tonight, lowered ceilings look to move back in, along
with the chance for showers and potentially a few thunderstorms
to pop-up. Have therefore introduced VCTS mention for this TAF
issuance, along with MVFR ceilings for the latter portion of the
TAF period. Model soundings this morning are hinting at ceilings
perhaps dropping even lower overnight into early tomorrow morning but
have held off to allow for greater certainty as that time
approaches. Look for generally southerly winds to be on the
increase this afternoon into tonight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for MOZ007-008-
     012>017-020>025-028>032-037>039-043>045-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...lg


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