Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 172044

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
344 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Issued at 248 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2016

Despite a cold front marching through the area tonight, a rather
large wedge of dry air is fixed in place, negating any sort of precip
chances. This dry air wedge will eventually erode, allowing for
enough moisture to pool in as a shortwave trough rotates through. The
front that will move through tonight will stall across southern MO
and once some moisture advects in and the trough axis approaches,
it`ll all combine to allow for showers and perhaps thunderstorms to
develop late tomorrow night into Wednesday. However, with the focus
primarily near and along that boundary across the south, that`s where
the better rain chances will be, leaving much of the rest of the
forecast area dry outside of the southern and eastern few counties
within this forecast area.

Once this feature moves through mid-week, we`ll enter into a period
of rather dry conditions as UL ridging takes hold of the southern
U.S. Therefore, the rest of the forecast period is dry. After an
unusually warm day today, much more seasonable temperatures will
settle in tomorrow behind the front, although may still take some
time to cool off across counties in the south and east that are
closer to the aforementioned stalled front. A reinforcing shot of
cool air arrives by mid-week with Thursday anticipated to be the
coolest day of the forecast period, topping out in the lower to mid
60s across most of the area. While lows Thursday night into Friday
morning could dip below the 40 degree mark (particularly in portions
of northern MO), not currently looking at lows to drop below the
upper 30s, but could still be impactful to agricultural interests
even if frost doesn`t occur. Temperatures look to moderate as the
weekend approaches, with 70s in the forecast again for the weekend
into early next week.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2016

Breezy conditions will continue this afternoon into the early evening
hours before settling down slightly after sunset. Primarily SW winds
will shift to the NW tonight as a frontal boundary crosses the area.
What will need to be monitored overnight will be the LLWS threat as
the winds slacken after sunset but stay breezy aloft. Currently, it
appears as though LLWS conditions will remain just below criteria for
inclusion in this TAF but could very well need to be added in on the
next issuance. It`ll be dependent on a few factors that will be
continually monitored and reassessed for the next issuance.

Outside of the wind concerns for aviation interests, precipitation
should remain south of the terminals tonight and VFR conditions are
expected to prevail for this TAF period. Look for much lighter winds
behind the front tomorrow.




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