Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 231641
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1141 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 259 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2017

Upper level ridging over the Rockies is building into the region and
stacking down to a surface high pressure located directly overhead
this morning.  This dry stable airmass will make for a very nice end
to an active pattern earlier this week.  There may be some fog
tonight in areas that drop into the lower 50s, mainly over northern
Missouri, but it does not look to be widespread as drier dewpoints
have advected into the area. High temperatures will remain
unseasonably cool in the upper 70s to lower 80s with low
temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The next chance for precipitation occurs as the upper level ridge
breaks down Friday allowing a shortwave to move over the northern
plains and a lee-side low to form up over SD.  This low will
progress to the east and intensify Saturday as a stronger shortwave
moves into the northern plains.  Isentropic accent Saturday night may
help to develop some showers and thunderstorms over western IA that
may clip parts of NW Missouri.  As this shortwave moves SE it will
help reinforce colder air down into the region in the form of a weak
cold front Sunday afternoon.  Scattered showers and weak
thunderstorms are expected to form up over northern Missouri with a
few stray storms down near the KC Metro area.  Severe weather and
flooding do not look to be an issue as there is little instability
or moisture available with this system. This boundary will linger
into the eastern portion of our area Monday popping off some
scattered showers in the afternoon. A closed upper level low on
Tuesday may also develop some showers in the eastern portion of the
CWA, but will move out quickly by Wednesday as high pressure builds
back into the region.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2017

VFR conditions will persist through the period with the influence
of surface high pressure remaining in place. Southeasterly flow
will make a return Thursday morning, along with a thin cirrus deck
associated with isolated storm chances well north of the terminal
sites. While shallow fog at KSTJ is possible once again overnight,
a drier air mass compared to Wednesday should limit this potential
overall.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Welsh



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