Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 272047

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
347 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.Short Term...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 348 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

Short Term (Tonight through Friday night):

Upper level ridge out across the western CONUS will help keep the
area in active northwest flow aloft through the short term period.
This will bring continued chances for thunderstorms through the
period as several shortwaves will move through the region. The first
of these shortwaves is moving through the Upper Midwest this
afternoon and will force a cold front into the area this evening.
Convergence along this cold front will be weak as it moves through
the area this evening however, models do continue to want to develop
scattered convection across the CWA. The front will push south of
the area by tomorrow morning and conditions should remain dry across
the area with just the slight chance for a thunderstorm across the
southern and eastern CWA. Highs tomorrow will be near normal behind
the cold front with highs in the mid to upper 80s. A MCS is expected
to develop across the western High Plains tomorrow. This MCS is
expected to roll southeastward across Kansas along the
aforementioned front and will slide south of the area although the
southwestern portion of the CWA may get clipped with a few showers
and thunderstorms late Thursday night into Friday morning. Friday
and Friday night models continue to depict a few shortwaves
traversing the area in northwest flow allowing for scattered
thunderstorms chances to continue through that period. Highs Friday,
with additional cloud cover, will hold in the low to mid 80s.

.Long Term...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

This weekend will see mostly northwest upper level flow as the upper
level trough begins to move east of the area. Periodic storm chances
are possible Saturday and Sunday as models show multiple shortwaves
moving over the CWA. The timing of these storms are uncertain this
far in advance, though the GFS and European models currently lean
towards Sunday being the wetter day.

Hot temperatures and dry weather return next week. Upper level flow
will level out throughout the weekend and a high pressure ridge will
persist throughout the week, bringing high temperatures back to the
low 90s by Monday.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with generally few-sct mid and
upper lvl clouds expected. A few thunderstorms in the VC of the
terminals btn 06Z-09Z are not out of the question however confidence
was too low at this time for inclusion in the TAF. Winds will be
lgt and vrb thru tomorrow morning before becmg N btn 5-10kts.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term...73
Long Term...HEC/73
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