Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 041144

644 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

Issued at 402 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

Today - Wednesday...

Broad easterly boundary layer winds tied to the southeastern CONUS
upper low is tapping into the deep moisture plume affecting SC and
pulling it westward through eastern MO. Expect quite a bit of low
level cloud cover to spread across at least the eastern 1/2 of the
CWA today, gradually reaching the MO/KS border by Monday morning.
Pronounced subsidence under an upper ridge which currently sits over
western MO should ensure a dry forecast with a sprinkle or two
possible over the far eastern counties. Today`s cloud cover will
negatively impact temperatures so have lowered highs over the
eastern 1/2.

The cloud cover will linger through Monday mixing out slowly. While
925mb temperatures will warm 3-5C the northeasterly boundary layer
winds and cloud cover will limit/mute surface heating.

The warmup will be in full bloom Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper
ridge strengthens and southerly winds replace the northeasterlies.
Highs on Wednesday may flirt with 80 degrees in extreme west central

Wednesday Night - Saturday...

Our first good chance at measurable rain arrives on Thursday, which
would mark 20 days without rain. The longest dry stretch (measured
at MCI) this year is 17 days.

As we noted yesterday the medium range models no longer were
tracking an upper low into the Central Plains but instead developed
a northern stream shortwave trough that northwest flow sent it
through the Northern and Central Plains as well as MN/IA on
Thursday. This trend has continued tonight with good spatial and
temporal run-to-run consistency. As a result agree with the model
blend of increasing PoPs for Thursday.

Dry and slightly cooler high pressure will follow the passage of the
cold front early Friday. Since the airmass moving in will be of
Pacific origin the degree of cooling will be minimal with seasonal
temperatures expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

MVFR ceilings over northeast and central MO will shift westward this
morning. Cloud bases will gradually mix with the leading edge of the
clouds lifting to low end VFR values by late morning. During the
early evening hours the VFR bases are expected to lower into MVFR
ranges of 2k-3k ft AGL over northwest and west central MO and go
below 2k ft AGL over northeast and central MO. These conditions will
likely persist into Monday morning.




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