Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 020215
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
915 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015
Issued at 402 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015
Tonight - Wednesday...
A thinning band of monsoonal moisture extending from northern Mexico
through the Central Plains will shift ever so slightly east tonight
and Wednesday and at the very least increase the cloud cover across
the northwest portion of the CWA later tonight/Wednesday. In
addition, a band of scattered elevated convection is expected to form
from eastern NE into north central KS in response to a shortwave
trough currently approaching central NE and some additional support
via isentropic ascent on the 310-315K surfaces. The operational
models are in good agreement with this feature and QPF with some of
tonight`s convection grazing far northwest MO.
Residual cloud cover over the northwest CWA could knock off a few
degrees on max temperatures. All depends on how fast clouds thin
out. Otherwise, with no change in airmass expect highs to be very
similar to todays (Tuesday).
Thursday - Sunday...
A pretty blase period with a deepening upper trough over the western
U.S. sharpening the upper ridge over the central U.S. This will
delay the arrival of any surface front as well as maintain a steady
stream of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as well as holding the
hot air back to our west. So, persistence will be the best forecast.
Sunday Night - Tuesday...
Best chance for more widespread, albeit still scattered in coverage,
convection resides within this period. Models have accelerated the
arrival of the activity with late Sunday night through Monday night
the favored time. Yep right on cue for Labor Day. The aforementioned
western U.S. trough opens up and lifts northeast, passing well to
the north of the CWA Sunday night/Monday. The falling h5 heights
should allow a cold front to drop south but have to wonder with this
system being so far north if the front will stall in or just south
of the CWA, thereby maintaining rain chances into Tuesday. As, we
get closer to the event no doubt PoPs will be adjusted upwards for a
portion of this forecast period.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015
VFR conditions will continue to prevail at all four terminals for the
remainder of this evening and through at least the early part of the
overnight hours. However, some thunderstorms may pop-up as dawn
approaches Wednesday across portions of NW MO and perhaps NE KS. STJ
stands the greatest chance of seeing some convection in the terminal
area, and will need to re-evaluate for the 06Z TAF issuance to see if
MCI and possibly MKC need to include mention as well. For now, have
withheld inclusion in this TAF issuance as some question as to how
far south the storms will be able to make it comes into question. Any
morning convection that does develop will struggle to survive as they
make their way south and eastward, anticipated to dissipate by the
Southerly to southwesterly winds will also continue to prevail
throughout much of the TAF period, increasing on Wednesday.