Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 130355
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1055 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

Our run at cool Fall like weather will persist through the weekend
and into the next work week, though temperatures will be moderating.

Water vapor imagery and upper air data today show a prominent
shortwave trough shifting east through the Central and Northern
Plains today. A reinforcing cold front that this shortwave pushed
south through our region has brought the coolest air we have seen in
these parts for many months; but, first things first. Showers from
the shortwaves passage today have been on the downward trend all
afternoon, and will continue to move east with the parent shortwave
tonight. Clearing skies look to be in the offering for tonight as
dry and cool Canadian air slides into the Central Plains. This will
provide the region with two potential weather phenomenon tonight
into Saturday morning. First, clearing skies will be coincident with
a cool surface high that will be sliding across Kansas into
Missouri. This will likely result in light and variable winds, which
in turn may allow for some light and patchy fog in the morning.
However, the second, more notable, issue will be the cold
temperatures that are expected tonight. The calm winds and clear
skies expected by morning will allow for good radiational cooling
overnight, which we think will make patchy frost possible in areas
where the winds go calm with the greatest potential in shallow
valleys. This is quite early for temperatures this cold, so have
gone ahead with a frost advisory for extreme northeast Kansas into
far northwest Missouri for early Saturday morning.

After a cool start to Saturday conditions will be on the up swing
for the rest of the weekend into next work week. With today`s
shortwave trough exiting to our east the flow will flatten across
the Plains States, allowing the return flow on the back side of the
cool surface high to start advecting warmer --more seasonally
normal-- temperatures back into the region. This will keep us dry
Saturday and Sunday with highs making a steady gains each day; 60s
for Saturday; 70s for Sunday. However, a following trough will swing
into a developing northwest flow late in the weekend. This will
shove another shot of cool air south into the Central Plains for the
beginning of the work week, but currently temperatures don`t look
nearly as cool as today. However, also arriving with the shortwave
will be our next chance at widespread rain, with activity starting
to spread across our forecast area after midnight Sunday. The
potential for storms to persist through the day will be there, along
with some shear, but instability looks a little over matched by the
shear; therefore severe weather is not expected at this time. Have
pulled POPs from much of the forecast later in the work week as a
dry surface high should dominate the weather through much of the
week after Monday --and maybe Monday nights-- storms finish up. This
will keep temperatures through next week in the 70s, with the
potential for a couple days to struggle to make it out of the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

Clr skies will be the rule throughout the TAF period however, light
winds will allow for fog formation this morning. Fog will develop btn
08Z-09Z initially reducing vsbys to 5SM however MKC and STJ may
experience a period of IFR vis btn 10Z-13Z with vsbys dropping to
1/2SM at STJ and to 2SM at MKC. Fog will burn of by 15Z as winds pick
up from the SE at 5-10kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 402 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

Potential record-breaking cold temperatures are possible for this
afternoon and tomorrow morning. Record low high temperatures will be
set at St Joseph and Kirksville this afternoon while just missing
the record at Kansas City. Possibly record setting morning lows
tomorrow are expected to drop into the upper 30s north of a Macon to
North Kansas City line. This could lead to a light frost across the
area mainly in unsheltered areas. Any sensitive vegetation will need
to be protected. Listed are the record minimum high temperatures for
today and the current high as well as the lows and forecast lows for
tomorrow morning...

              Today`s high    Record Cold High
Kansas City       54F            52F/1890
St. Joseph        54F            61F/1989
Kirksville        53F            61F/2006

Listed are the forecast and record low temperatures for tomorrow
9/13(Saturday)...

              Forecast Low      Record Low
Kansas City       39F            39F/1890
St. Joseph        37F            39F/1974
Kirksville        38F            35F/1953

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ102.

MO...FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday FOR MOZ001>005-011-
     012.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...73





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