Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 081106
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
506 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 257 AM CST THU DEC 8 2016

A well below normal stretch of temperatures will continue to affect
the area through Friday night. This will be due to longwave upper
troughing across much of the eastern CONUS. Today this upper
troughing will be supplemented by moderate cold air advection at the
surface. Expect highs in the low to mid 20s. Northwest winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts to 20 mph will yield wind chill values from 5
below to 5 above zero this morning and remaining in the upper single
digits and teens this afternoon. A 1041mb surface high will build
into the area tonight allowing for the coldest temperatures since
January with lows in the upper single digits and lower teens. This
surface high will remain over the area on Friday continuing to keep
temperatures well below normal despite modest height rises. Expect
highs in the mid to upper 20s on Friday. Friday night the surface
highs will shift east of the area and we get a return to light
southerly flow which will keep temperatures from plummeting. Lows
Friday night will be in the mid-teen to near 20. Warm air advecting
will increase over the area on Saturday bringing a return to near
normal temperatures with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Saturday
night a cold front will approaching the area moving into the area
early Sunday morning however conditions will remain dry until
Sunday.

As we get into Sunday, that will bring our next chance of
precipitation as an upper level shortwave moves from the northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest. The GFS is faster with this system
bringing it through the region on Sunday afternoon while the EC is
delayed until Sunday night. The faster GFS solution is much drier
than the EC as moisture is slow to return to the region. The GFS
would bring a light rain changing to snow event Sunday into Sunday
night with the bulk of the precipitation fall over the eastern CWA.
The EC solution would also bring a rain to snow event with 1-2"
possible over the northeastern CWA. Model difference then continue
through the remainder of the extended forecast with the GFS
producing a system capable of producing moderate snowfall on
Tuesday while the EC has the area completely dry thru the later half
of the extended period. Consequently, with the major differences in
solutions, have opted for the inherited forecast builder solution
due to low confidence. Temperatures Sunday will move below normal
again with a cooling trend through the middle of next week when
temperatures will again struggle to get out of the 20s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 506 AM CST THU DEC 8 2016

Clr skies will prevail thru the TAF pd. Winds will be out of the NW
between 10-15kts with poss gusts to 20kts. Gusts will subside this
afternoon with NW winds remaining btn 10-15kts before dmshg to
5-10kts after sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73


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