Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 101134

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
634 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

Issued at 349 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

Our run of dry warm weather looks to persist through the weekend and
well into the next work week. The modestly amplified pattern across
the U.S.A. this morning has a bit of a northwest flow in place
across the northern half of the Plains States thanks to the help of
a ridge over the Rockies and trough across the Ohio River Valley.
Main core of the westerlies aloft is still to our north though, so
the northwest flow --while bringing some cool air Friday-- will not
be able to bring anymore to our section of the country this weekend.
In fact, we will be flirting with record highs by Sunday.

For the weekend and into next week...temperatures will make steady
gains Saturday and Sunday as the cool air behind our recent cold
front sweeps east and modifies, allowing a southerly return to the
winds across the Plains. This will all occur in advance of a trough
that will be moving east and deepening along the Canadian border late
this weekend. While the trough wont dip too far south into the
Plains, it will send a weak cold front sweeping through the region
Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures ahead of the front, especially
Sunday, are expected to warm significantly as the thermal ridge
across the Plains bends over into northwest Missouri with 850mb
temperatures expected to be in the low 20s centigrade. Current
forecast has some areas of northwest Missouri reaching into the upper
80s with areas of west central Missouri --around KC-- in the mid-80s.
It would not take much for those upper 80s to shift a little farther
south. Frontal passage Sunday night/Monday morning will knock
temperatures back down, but that will just place them a little above
normal for Monday instead of a lot. Above normal temperatures are
expected to persist through the later half of the work week as the
Pacific origin to the air mass behind the late weekend cold front
wont be that cold. Otherwise, next work week also looks dry as little
to no moisture and/or rain-making-weather-features are noted.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

Patchy early morning fog developed across the terminals this morning
with the greatest impact on the KSTJ terminal. What fog there is
should not last much beyond sunrise; with VFR expected for the rest
of this TAF cycle. Otherwise, expect surface winds to more fully turn
to the south and southwest as the surface ridge slides to our east.


Issued at 349 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

Well above normal temperatures and dry weather will leave the region
vulnerable to fire issues over the coming week as fine fuels have
begun to dry and cure in accordance with the changing of the season.
Currently, Sunday and Monday look to be the most problematic days
over the next 7-days as hot temperatures surge north into the Central
Plains where little to no moisture has fallen lately. Minimum
humidity values Sunday look to drop into the 30 percent range with
values possibly even lower Monday behind the cold front as the winds
turn to the north and dry air advection prevails. At this time
parameters for Sunday look to stay above critical fire weather
thresholds, with Monday looking like the mostly likely day to see
some areas hit critical values (Minimum R.H. values <= 25% with winds
> 20 MPH). Have not included values quite this low in the going
forecast, but any small adjustments in the forecast is all that`s
needed to get there. Moderation of temperatures back towards normal
next week is expected to allow the humidity values to run a little
higher through the rest of the work week, but fire weather concerns
will persist until sufficient rain falls or temperatures cool


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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