Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 260427
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1127 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1108 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of the KC metro are still in
effect until midnight. Storms had reintensified around and just
after sunset, but have since begun to level off. Some storms embedded
within the cluster currently traversing along either side of US Hwy
36 have remained strong, containing copious amounts of lightning,
locally heavy rainfall, and some gusty winds, but are sub-severe at
the moment. The general trend for these storms through the next few
hours are to continue to remain below severe limits as instability
drops and CIN increases. PWATs are rather high in the area so heavy
rain will continue to be a threat but thankfully, the storms have
been moving along steadily, keeping widespread flooding issues at
bay. That said, it is still too soon to drop the Flash Flood Watch.
Hi-res models are still coming in but there remains some question
around redevelopment closer toward the pre-dawn to dawn hours Sunday.

UPDATE Issued at 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect, although the immediate
threat within the watch area is minimal at the moment. Will continue
to carry the watch for the near future as plentiful instability is
in the area and while the sun will be setting in the next hour and a
half, the LLJ is expected to ramp up, which could reinvigorate
ongoing convective activity currently moving into eastern KS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 437 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Another hot and humid day in much of northern Missouri, though
storms from this morning and persistent storms in southeast Nebraska
have managed to help the far northwest and north central sections
of Missouri beat the heat some. Therefore...have dropped much of the
going heat advisory for today. However...the broader environmental
elements will still be in place for another heat advisory across
eastern Kansas and western Missouri Sunday through Tuesday, though
for Sunday the advisory may be complicated by our overnight
convection.

Overnight through Sunday...Storms have been bubbling up in the moist
plume across Kansas into southern Nebraska for much of the day.
This has resulted in a outflow boundaries pushing south today,
leaving an effective boundary stretching west-east along I-70 from
Topeka through Kansas City. Storms have already begun developing
along this effective boundary. With MUCAPE values of 5000+ J/KG
available energy and moisture to fuel the storms is present, though
shear values are marginal as deep layer shear -- whether 0-1KM or 0-
6KM or 0-8KM -- is currently almost none existent in eastern Kansas
and western Missouri. Current radar trends backup this observation up
as storms seem to be having a hard time organizing much beyond
their explosive growth phase. However, that will change as these
storms persist into the evening hours, which could result in strong
to severe storms with damaging winds and torrential rain the primary
threats. With all the recent rain flash flood guidance is still
running very low, therefore have issued a flash flash watch for much
of the forecast area for tonight.

More specifically for tonight...expect any activity this evening
across the effective boundary to slowly slide southeast this evening
with the eventual onset of the nocturnal jet --associated with a
modest shortwave moving across the Central Plains late tonight--
pulling the focus for new storm development farther north across
Missouri. This may result in widespread rainfall totals between 1 and
2 inches, with much higher values where strongest storms occur.

Otherwise for Sunday...have issued a heat advisory for much of the
region as expectations are that the storms will dissipate early enough
in the day to allow for strong afternoon heating.

Monday and Tuesday...the 500mb ridge axis --currently just to our
west-- will amplify and move east into Missouri as a large trough
makes landfall across the Pacific Northwest. This will likely give
us a couple days of break from the repeated chances of thunderstorms
as the storms track shifts north, but this will allow the thermal
ridge under the upper level ridge to bake eastern Kansas and
Missouri. Expectations are that some kind of heat product will be
needed for those periods.

Wednesday through Saturday...Tuesday night a modest front is
expected to get pressed into Missouri as the large Pacific northwest
trough moves across the Canadian border region. This might give us
some chance for storms again Tuesday night, but more importantly this
will take the edge off the heat for the later half of the week with
highs back down in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Decaying thunderstorm activity is currently moving into the terminal
areas, although could continue to see at least VCTS through the
remainder of the evening hours. Later overnight, any remaining
convective activity should push off toward the east, away from direct
impacts to the terminals. Once the threat for storms passes, VFR
conditions are anticipated to prevail Sunday morning through much of
the day.

Winds this evening will vary with a nearby boundary laid out, along
with outflow from nearby storms tossing winds around. Directions
should become more uniformly southerly tomorrow.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ025-102>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046.

     HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ001>004-
     011>014-020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...lg
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...lg


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