Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 181740

1240 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Issued at 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Short Term (Today through Monday night):

This morning, high pressure residing over the northern Plains will
continue to sink south into the region. High pressure will then set
up over the area today allowing for mostly sunny skies. Highs will
be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows tonight will bottom out in
the upper 30s to mid 40s before surface high pressure shifts east of
the area during the early morning hours and we get a return to
southerly flow. Southerly flow will set the stage for a mild day on
Sunday as highs will rise into the 60s. Sunday night an upper level
trough will dig as it moves through the Great Lakes forcing a cold
front through the area. Moisture will be meager with this system,
and forcing will be weak with the better upper level support well
northeast of the area. Models remain mostly dry with this frontal
passage as it moves through the forecast area developing showers
south and east of the area. Monday upper level ridging will build
into the region helping to push temperatures up into the upper 60s
to lower 70s.

Long Term (Tuesday through Saturday):

The upper level ridge that moves into the area on Monday will remain
in control over the area through Wednesday. This will continue the
streak of mild temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
However, Wednesday night a shortwave will move into the central
Plains flattening the upper level ridge. This shortwave will weaken
as it approaches the area Wednesday night. Models differ on how far
east an associated cold front will reach and thus how far eastward
precipitation will spread. The EC is the furthest east with the
front bringing it into northwestern Missouri while the GFS and
Canadian wash the front out across the eastern Plains. Have
generally sided with the consensus solution of the GFS which would
produce light showers across northwestern Missouri and northeastern
Kansas Wednesday night into Thursday. Highs will remain in the mid
to upper 60s. Upper level ridging then build back into the region
for the end of the week with temperatures rising into the mid 60s to
near 70.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Some
isolated cumulus with bases around 3-4 kft may edge into the
terminals this afternoon, then will dissipate by early evening. Light
north northeast winds will gradually veer to the south overnight,
eventually increasing out of the south southwest at around 10 kts by
mid morning Sunday.




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