Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 212019
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
319 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

Very few concerns in the near-term as a sfc ridge of high pressure
continues to extend south into the Lwr Missouri Vly. This feature has
brought a fairly dry airmass to the region with afternoon dewpoint
temps largely ranging in the middle to upper 40s. Meanwhile
aloft...a weak shortwave trough diving south along the eastern
periphery of the main upper ridge now in place across the Central
Plains continues to result in lgt radar returns across north-central
Missouri and southern Iowa. With the dry air in place however...no
measurable precip is expected at this time. Further to the
west...fcst models continue to advertise light shwr/storm activity
across eastern KS and far western MO as easterly low-level flow
results in modest isentropic ascent along an elevated boundary to
our west. Despite this...fcst soundings from the NAM/HRRR/Rapid-
Refresh indicate the dry air will likely win out later tonight and
thus have only gone with a slgt chc mention across the far western
zones. Any activity should it form...will likely diminish shortly
after midnight. Otherwise...expect overnight lows to fall into the
lower to middle 50s across much of the area.

Sunday shaping up to be an absolutely beautiful day with afternoon
highs warming into the upper 70s and maybe even a few low 80s.
Aforementioned boundary will begin lifting north through the area
during the day which will mark the start of noticeable more humid
conditions with dewpoints rising accordingly. Would not be surprised
to see values approaching the 60 degree mark by late afternoon as
moisture advection commences. While the daylight hrs will be
dry...shwr/storm activity expected to increase in coverage after
midnight as a weak shortwave trough and sfc low track over the area.
With weak wind fields however...activity will pass with little
impact.

Much more active weather to get underway early next week as longwave
troughing develops along the West Coast. As stated yesterday...this
will result in prolonged southwest flow across the Nation`s
midsection with pattern favoring the passage of several small-scale
disturbances through the week. To our east...semi-permanent ridging
off the Southeast coast will ensure an uninterrupted supply of return
flow moisture across the Heartland with many models still indicating
a return of 70 degree dewpoints by Tuesday afternoon. Per today`s
model runs...upcoming pattern shows little sign of breaking down as
ridging continues to build off the East Coast. All told...expect
several rounds of shwrs/storms through next week as successive
disturbances pass overhead. In terms of severe wx potential...upper
wind pattern to be fairly weak during the early half of the work week
with resultant deep-layered shear only marginally supportive of
severe wx through at least Tuesday. After this time...extended range
models show better potential towards the Thursday/Friday time frame
as initial strong wave/closed low begins track northeast from the
Southern Rockies/High Plains. GFS/ECMWF seem to agree on overall
timing of this feature and this will likely serve as the best timing
for organized severe across our area. That said...many details remain
to be worked out as models show plenty of overnight convection each
day which could lead to plenty of low clouds which could impact the
destabilization process. In any event, next week is definitely worth
keeping an eye on...but there appears to be a few mitigating factors
that will need to be overcome for a significant event to develop and
pinning those details down this far out remains elusive at best.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

VFR conditions expected through the fcst period as high pressure and
dry air remains over the area this afternoon. Fcst models still
suggesting isolated shwr/storms over central KS later
today/tonight...but majority if not all activity will remain south
and west of area terminals. Lgt southeast winds between 4-8 kts
expected this afternoon and overnight before speeds slowly
increase after 15z.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32



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