Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 270437
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1137 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Water vapor imagery depicts a broad mid-level ridge to the west
which is providing northwest flow aloft over the CWA. Surface high
pressure to the northeast will continue to lead to a drying trend
through Wednesday evening with surface temperatures peaking in the
low to mid 80s. The ridge will give way to a short-wave developing
on the crest of the ridge as it works its way to the east. This will
bring about the chance for mid to late week storms in the short-
term. A surface low is progged to develop over western Nebraska this
evening before undergoing further development as it approaches
eastern Nebraska through Thursday. Warm air advection will accompany
the approaching system, with weak isentropic ascent across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri setting up by early Thursday morning. A
few thunderstorms are expected within this region, though will need
to overcome dry air near the surface for measurable precipitation
Thursday morning. The aforementioned wave will continue to develop
Thursday, while at the surface, a cold front will sweep through
western Missouri late Friday morning. The best chance for widespread
convection during the near-term forecast will occur along the
boundary through the morning and afternoon hours on Friday. At this
point, with limited moisture and instability, severe weather is not
anticipated along the boundary. The cold front will slowly push
through the CWA with measurable precipitation across the boundary
through Friday. Heavier precipitation amounts are likely within
northern Missouri, as the greatest forcing for storms will reside
primarily over Iowa. By late Friday and into Saturday morning, cooler
air behind the front will bring about a temporary cooling period
before mid-level ridging once again develops to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

By the end of the week, into the weekend influence from the mid
level ridge will once again become rather dominant, which will yield
above normal temperatures for next week. Expect temperatures to be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s through at least mid week. Will
continue with a dry forecast, as there does not appear to be any
obvious lifting mechanism for rain chances. Mid level flow looks to
remain rather weak through mid to late next week, which should even
diminish any chances for ridge-rider type systems. All in all, it
looks rather warm and dry for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across NW
NE overnight and move southward into eastern KS by 12-14Z. While
current model analysis shows most of the expected activity to remain
in eastern KS, there is the chance that some convection may work its
way into western MO. Southerly winds will increase tomorrow
afternoon as pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching
front. Winds will decrease towards evening but precipitation chances
will increase late in the prevailing TAF period as front nears the
region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...PMM


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