Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 011131
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 245 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

Upper-level low pressure continues to spin across the Central Plains
this morning...with latest surface obs showing an inverted trough
extending northwest across our area from parent low pressure now
centered just north of STL. Fcst models all in general agreement
that lgt shwrs will develop later this morning as weak frontogenesis
combines with increased forcing for ascent as the upper low inches
closer to the area. Best chances for measurable precip will reside
along and north of Route 36 based on expected frontogenesis
maximum...however a few stray shwrs down to I-70 cannot be ruled out
completely. In any event however...all precip should remain light
considering the absence of any instability. As this upper low tracks
east...expect developing cold air advection today as flow becomes
more northwesterly as the day progresses. This combined with abundant
cloud cover should lead to noticeably cooler temps today with many
places north of I-70 struggling to reach the 60 degree mark. Precip
chances should come to an end by late this afternoon with a return of
dry weather overnight as weak sfc high pressure temporarily noses
into the area. Overnight lows should fall into the lower to middle
40s across much of the forecast area.

Weak wave now seen over the Desert Southwest will lift northeast
through the day on Monday...with continued cold temps aloft
combining with weak synoptic scale forcing to result in instability
shwrs once again. For now...best area of concentrated rainfall will
reside well south across Arklatex region which will be better
positioned for Gulf moisture entrainment. Regardless...model signal
has been consistent in recent days and a slgt chc mention seems
warranted. Pretty much the same story on Tuesday as another weak wave
passes south over the area in northwest flow aloft. Instability shwrs
again look possible across the eastern zones and have added a slgt
chc mention for now.

Beyond this...a period of dry weather can be expected through the
duration of the work week as a strong omega block develops across the
Nation`s Heartland. From this vantage point...hard to believe much in
the way of any significant precip can be expected through the start
of next weekend as riding takes up position directly over the Plains.
With heights building aloft...expect a warming trend with mid/upper
70s likely both Saturday and Sunday. Along with the warmer
temps...latest model runs hint the strong ridge will begin to
breakdown by Saturday as weak shortwave energy begins sliding through
the upper Miss Vly. This could result in developing shwrs/storms
both Saturday afternoon and Sunday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

Early morning satellite showing plenty of mid-level stratus across
the Lower Missouri Vly...all in associated with an inverted trough
as upper low pressure center. With time this morning...fcst guidance
suggests CIGS will lower to MVFR at STJ and MCI as low begins to move
overhead. Further south at IXD and MKC...more uncertainty exists as
model progs keep the demarcation line between MVFR and VFR right
along the Missouri Rvr. For now...have elected to keep the latter two
sites in the VFR category for now based on this uncertainty. Cannot
rule out a light shwr or two at STJ this morning but overall isolated
nature of activity precludes anything higher than a VCSH mention for
now. MVFR cigs at STJ and MCI will likely climb back to VFR later
this afternoon before once again falling below thresholds later
tonight. In fact...there`s a better chance that all four terminals
will be dealing with MVFR cigs during the overnight hrs as moisture
becomes trapped below a developing subsidence inversion.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32


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