Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 151741

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1141 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Issued at 408 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

Early morning radar imagery shows a broad region of light to
moderate rain stretching from the Texas panhandle east northeast
through southern Kansas and southern Missouri. The band is the
result of the overrunning warm-moist air advection from the western
Gulf and eastern Pacific ahead of the cutoff low circulation
swinging through northwest Mexico this morning on its way to
ejecting northeast through the Plains States late tonight through
Monday. However, overnight activity has been slow to lift north due
to the limiting stream lines of the locally zonal upper level flow
over eastern Kansas and Missouri. The moderate band of freezing rain
will likely only slowly move north this morning as the forcing
driving it slowly response to the increasingly negatively tilled
shift in the circulation. This will significantly effect freezing
rains totals (lowering them) across areas from east central
Kansas into central Missouri. Issue later this morning will be the
freezing line shifting north.

Icing today and into tonight...Models still keep the retreat of the
freezing line slow enough to allow for accumulating ice this morning
as the band of moderate rain shifts slowly north. Current
expectations are that the above freezing temperatures will climb
north to Highway 50 around noon today with readings around freezing
from Highway 50 north to around the Missouri River. Temperatures
from the Missouri River north will likely hover around to below
freezing this afternoon and overnight. All this likely means that
areas south of Highway 50 will only pick up another few hundredths of
an inch of icing, with melting expected this afternoon with
temperatures above freezing. Areas from Highway 50 to around the
Missouri River will likely see a few hundredths to a quarter of an
inch of additional ice accumulations this morning before
temperatures rise to around freezing early this afternoon. Likely
the temperatures around freezing will be sufficient to stop any
additional ice accumulations this afternoon as the mass of rain
proves too much for the shallow sub-freezing surface temperatures to
freeze. Areas north of the River may still see decent ice
accumulations this afternoon and tonight as temperatures remain on
the cool side of freezing. Persistent cold temperatures up north
tonight leave the heaviest icing potential pointed at extreme
northeast Kansas and far northwest Missouri with totals that might
still get above a quarter of an inch between this afternoon and
tonight. And, while the icing totals are significantly lower than
the criteria for an Ice Storm Warning, thoughts are that any icing
is not good due to potential for slips and accidents, therefore
the intent is to keep the current round of Ice Storm Warning going
as is for today and into tonight; though some of the southern
section of the Warning may get dropped early.

Monday...still looks like it will be wet as the Mexico circulation
moves northeast across the Plains. On the up side, temperatures
Sunday night into Monday morning are expected to be non-diurnal
owing to the synoptic level ridge moving in ahead of the
circulation. Thus, by sunrise Monday much of the wintry weather will
have shifted north into Nebraska and Iowa. And, given the anomalously
high precipitable water values expected, we expect a decent rain as
storms move through Monday washing off all the salt out there.

Rest of the work week into next weekend...with the passing of the
northern Mexico circulation the weather will become rather quite for
the week. Temperatures will be on a bit on the rise as afternoon
highs bubble up into the 40s and 50s; we might even see some highs
in the 60s! Another storm system is currently advertised by the
mid-range models for next weekend. Temperatures in that time range
look to be far enough above freezing to indicate that wintry
precipitation is not expected.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

Temperatures are expected to hover right around freezing for the
afternoon hours which will make precipitation type tricky at the
terminals. Consequently, have opted for freezing rain as the
predominant group thru 22Z with a tempo for rain. The good news
is temperatures are warm enough where if surfaces are treated BA
should not be a concern. This evening there should be a break in
the pcpn for all but STJ before rain moves into the terminals
after midnight. Light fog is expected thru this evening reducing
vsbys to 3-5SM with denser fog expected after midnight reducing
vsbys to 1-3SM. IFR cigs will prevail thru the pd.


KS...Ice Storm Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ057-060.

     Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for KSZ025-102.

     Ice Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for KSZ103>105.

MO...Ice Storm Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MOZ033-

     Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for MOZ001>008-011>017-

     Ice Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MOZ025-028>032-



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