Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 271502
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1002 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Weak ridging and slight drying in the low-levels looks to keep
instability and storm chances on the low side today. Sent a quick
update to keep things dry except for some slight chance PoPs across
the far south later this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Despite the threat of a few storms, today and Thursday may give the
local region a chance to dry out... before more rain arrives Friday.
Early this morning the shortwave trough that brought a bit of
stormy weather of late is seen shifting east of the Plains States
on water vapor imagery, while a follow on shortwave ridge is poised
to replace the trough across our section of the country for a day.

The shortwave ridge that will shift across Kansas and Missouri today
will lift temperatures a bit compared to Tuesday due to a general
lack of widespread rain, synoptic height gains under the ridge along
with the help of a southerly wind. Currently, thunderstorms are
bubbling up across southern and eastern Missouri thanks to weak
boundary draped across the southern portion of the state. However,
this activity will very likely stay south of our area through the
rest of the morning hours. However, warm air advection in the
afternoon and into the evening will also be at work, and with the
generally uncapped environment across the forecast region we can not
rule out the potential for some storms across southeast Kansas east
across southern Missouri, leaving a slight potential for storms
along our southern forecast border today. Though given the fleeting
potential for storms, it should generally be a dry day for the
entire forecast region. If any storms do bubble up in our region
shear under the ridge will be weak limiting our activity to pulse
convection, though with the potential to dump a quick half inch to
inch of rain.

Storm chance look to increase overnight Wednesday into Thursday
morning, maximizing Friday and Friday night, as moisture transport
from the Gulf begins anew as the shortwave ridge moves east and a
northern Rocky Mountain trough phases with a wave dropping through
the Canadian Plains. Conditions Thursday will become increasingly
favorable for storm development throughout the daylight and
overnight hours of Thursday as the general environment is primed for
storms by the gulf moisture which will help fuel afternoon MUCAPE >
2000 J/KG with shear values for 0-3KM ranging between 20 and 25
knots. Severe potential currently looks to be marginal with hail and
wind as threats, but with flooding from torrential rain likely the
biggest issue as precipitable water values will spike up to over
1.5". These conditions will simply persist into Friday, though with
the phased Rocky Mountain and Canadian Plains trough now providing a
bit more synoptic support for activity Friday and Friday night,
which is where we have left the highest POPs.

Saturday and Saturday night we should see begin to dry back out with
POPs falling off as a surface high follows the phased trough into
the Plains States from the Canadian Plains. This will have the
follow on affect of cooling the region a little with highs falling
back into the 70s for the tail end of the weekend and beginning of
next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR conditions will likely dominate the next 24 hours across the
terminals of northwestern Missouri. What clouds do pop-up should be
well in the VFR range today. Late tonight lower clouds may work their
way into western Missouri ahead of possible storms Thursday, but they
will likely be in the VFR through end of the current TAF cycle.
Otherwise, light wind today may back to the southeast late tonight,
but remain rather light.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter






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