Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 101724
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1124 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
For today, will be watching the southeastward progress of a band of
light to moderate snow currently over the eastern Dakotas. The upper
jet streak and associated midlevel wave forcing this band of snow
will push into the eastern edge of the CWA this afternoon, resulting
in a few hour period of light snow accumulation. Column temperatures
will be too warm for dendritic growth, keeping snow:liquid ratios in
check despite fairly deep saturation and deep but fairly weak lift;
therefore, total snow accumulations should be around an inch or less.
These accumulations and the overall impact without wind or mixed
precipitation should be sub-advisory level; however travel could be
hampered this afternoon and evening mainly from Bethany to Boonville
and areas east.
Temperatures this afternoon will range widely from the 20s to lower
30s where snow is expected to near 50 in southwestern portions of
the CWA where more abundant sunshine -- and more importantly, SW
winds mixing down +4 to +5 925 hPa temperatures -- will support
stronger surface warming. The lower-level reflection of the upper
wave will then push through tonight, bringing winds back to the east
northeast and holding Thursday highs in the mid 20s to 30s.
Rollercoaster temperatures will continue for the end of the work
week and into the weekend as warm air continues its attempt to build
eastward and a series of shortwave bat it back to the south and west.
Afternoon temperatures Friday will to rise into the 40s to near 50
again across eastern KS and portions of west central MO, then the
coldest day of the forecast period will come Saturday as chilly
Canadian high pressure surges down from the Dakotas and into central
Iowa, forcing temperatures into the single digits to teens Saturday
AM and only allowing a slight diurnal rise into the 20s by the
afternoon. The only location with steadier temperatures will be
parts of northeast and eastern MO, which will be more influenced by
the upper trough across the eastern CONUS, and will struggle to warm
out of the 20s on any given day.
Precipitation continues to look possible as a shortwave trough
drops through the region on Sunday, although the EC has flopped back
to a more split solution with a defined surface low that treks south
of the region and a break in precipitation across the majority of
the forecast area. Either way, main precipitation type is likely to
be very light snow *if* it occurs, but the potential for no
precipitation pushes blended consensus temperatures too warm to
support all snow and have had to keep the R/S mix mention in areas
that could reach the upper 30s Sunday.
Good news for anyone coming down with a serious case of spring fever;
the trend for much warmer temperatures begins after the Sunday
system, and highs in the 50s to maybe even 60s look possible by the
end of the forecast period.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
Stratus deck has been scattering out through the morning across
eastern KS and western MO. Mixing along and and south of this stratus
deck has led to breezy surface winds and clearing skies. Most, if not
all terminals, will clear by this afternoon but models build stratus
deck back across the region as high pressure moves into the region
overnight. Short term guidance and bufkit soundings try and develop a
brief period of light fog between 9-12Z. With terminals on the
western edge of high pressure, believe that winds will stay up enough
overnight to mitigate fog development. Stratus deck will try to erode
by late in the period.