Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 031750

1150 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today/Tonight: Temperatures across the forecast area remain in the
lower to middle 30s as of this morning. A fine mist to light showers
will continue to overspread the area. The coolest air temperatures
remain over far northeast Missouri, where some light light freezing
drizzle/rain remains possible. Any potential ice accumulation should
be light, on the order of a couple hundredths of an inch, and with
road temps averaging 31-33 degrees in northeast MO, most ice should
be regulated to elevated surfaces, limiting impacts. Primary concern
will end around sunrise as air temperatures warm above freezing.
Otherwise, majority of precipitation will be during the morning
hours before drier air moves into the area this afternoon. Highs
will range from the lower to upper 40s, with a couple locations
perhaps sneaking to 50 degrees. Low clouds will begin to clear late
this afternoon into tonight, leaving mid/high clouds. Lows tonight
will fall into the teens to lower 20s.

Wednesday/Wed Night: Increasing ascent from the phasing of the
approaching upper trough over the Northern Plains and the vorticity
maximum over West Texas, with residual moisture, will lead to
post-frontal precipitation developing Wednesday morning over west
central Missouri and east central Kansas, generally along and south
of the Interstate 70 corridor. Forecast soundings support all snow,
with total snowfall amounts averaging one-half inch or less. Expect
to see a fairly sharp snowfall cutoff on the north side of the
precipitation with drier air advecting into the area upon northerly
winds. With the persistent mid/high cloudiness and cold air
advection, highs will remain unseasonably cold, with readings in the
20s. The cold airmass will be firmly in place by Wednesday night,
and as surface high pressure builds into the region, surface wind
speeds will weaken and skies will become mostly clear, allowing for
decent radiational cooling. Lows will fall into the single digits to
the lower teens.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The extended time looks to be benign with a general warming trend
through the period. Thursday will be the coldest day of the period
as the upper level trough which brought the weather to the area on
Tuesday and Wednesday finally moves through the area on Thursday
morning. This will leave the area under northwest flow aloft while
at the surface Canadian high pressure will move into the forecast
area. Highs will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s which in 15 to 20
degrees below normal for the beginning of March. However, Thursday
night, high pressure will slide to the east and flow at the surface
will increase out of the southwest on Friday. This will occur as
northwest flow aloft also relaxes allowing highs to return to normal
from the mid 40s to near 50. An upper level trough will move across
the Upper Midwest on Saturday which will force a weak cold front
through the area. However, cold air behind this front will be absent
and downsloping flow will allow temperatures to remain in the mid
40s to lower 50s. Saturday night a fast moving area of high pressure
will move through the area and southwest flow will return in its
wake on Sunday. This will help temperatures warm into the upper 40s
to mid 50s. Monday, upper level ridging that has resided across the
western CONUS will begin to build into the area. This will set the
stage for what right now looks to be a very mild week next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Challenging aviation forecast as terminals currently reside between
two independent frontal boundaries. Drier air is currently working
into the region this afternoon which has led to a gradual raising of
cigs over the past hour or so. Latest VIS satellite is actually
showing some breaks off to the west which may hold together long
enough to allow an improvement to VFR later this afternoon. For
now...have decided to advertise this possibility with a TEMPO VFR
group starting at 20 or 21z depending on terminal. Following
this...all available guidance suggests the return of MVFR cigs after
00z as post frontal stratus works south over the region. By early
morning...high pressure nosing in from the north should allow a
gradual scattering of low stratus towards sunrise. Winds will
continue veering through the afternoon before becoming northerly by
early evening. Cold air advection should maintain speeds in the 10-15
kt range overnight.




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