Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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115
FXUS63 KEAX 151731
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1231 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN OCT 15 2017

Much quieter conditions are settling in across the forecast area
early this morning, with the storms/rain moving off toward the
east. What`s being left immediately behind, besides falling temps,
is a LL stratus deck that looks to persist through this morning
before much drier air filters in and clears it out by midday.
Today will be a beautiful fall day with highs only reaching the
upper 50s to lower 60s. While benign weather conditions will
continue into tonight, the concern turns toward those with
agricultural interests, i.e. those particularly worried about
sensitive vegetation, as lows bottom out in the mid-upper 30s to
near 40 degrees. Currently, could see patchy frost, especially in
northern MO, but will need to monitor the forecast later today to
see if more widespread frost concerns arise. By tomorrow
afternoon, temps will have rebounded well into the mid to upper
60s.

What we`re looking at for the week in terms of the weather pattern
is surface high pressure to start the week off, with a transition
to zonal flow aloft by the middle of the week. Toward the end of
the week, models are depicting ridging building over the SE CONUS,
creating an increasingly amplified pattern as a trough crosses the
Intermountain West. This setup hints at the potential for the next
rain chances to impact the area but at this point is too far out
to nail down specifics or have high confidence in the exact
scenario that will play out. In the meantime, rest assured that
temps will continue to moderate throughout the week, creeping back
up above normal for mid-October.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2017

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period with winds out
of the NW 10-15kts during the afternoon switching to the SW at
5-10kts after sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Frost Advisory from 5 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for KSZ102.

MO...Frost Advisory from 5 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for MOZ001>004-011-
     012.

&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...Barham



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