Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 130856
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
356 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 257 AM CDT FRI OCT 13 2017

As the front currently across SE Nebraska inches closer to NW
Missouri early this morning, won`t see much out of it other than
thickening mid-level clouds, as evidenced on satellite. However,
as better dynamical support moves in behind the front, could see a
few sprinkles or light rain showers pop-up through ~dawn across
portions of northern MO with the limiting factor being
insufficient LL moisture. As for the remainder of today, looks to
remain largely dry as the front slows and eventually briefly
stalls across the forecast area. This will provide the focus for
precip to potentially fire up later tonight as the LL jet cranks
up and moisture continues to advect into the area. By Saturday
morning, could see scattered thunderstorms across the northern
two-thirds of the forecast area, with thunderstorm chances
spreading and increasing as the day progresses. These
thunderstorms will evolve into a line that will then march through
Saturday evening into the overnight hours along and ahead of a
surface cold front that will have plenty of support from an upper
trough rotating through the Plains. Once the storms clear the area
early Sunday morning (should be out by ~12Z), look for much drier
air and high pressure to settle in, leaving a rather benign
forecast period afterward.

Despite convection that may be in the area Saturday morning,
sufficiently available instability for this time of year, coupled
with copious amounts of moisture (PWATs surge to well above
climatological normals), and plentiful shear values will combine
to create a dynamic strong to severe weather threat Saturday
afternoon through Saturday night. Currently, the greatest severe
weather concern will be strong to perhaps damaging winds, but hail
and a tornado or two look to be plausible as well. Indications
are pointing to a QLCS setting up Saturday evening, not unlike
what this region is typically used to seeing, with some embedded
vortices possible given the conducive parameters that appear to be
coming together. In other words, while there is increasing
confidence in the setup we`ll see late Saturday, stay tuned as
this time period gets closer as it is still possible to see some
deviations in this forecast.

While we`re currently in the middle of a temperature swing and a
rather tight temp gradient occurring later today, the well-above
normal temps for mid-October will plummet to below normal by
Sunday behind the aforementioned fropa late Saturday/early Sunday.
For next week, temps look to moderate, lingering near normal for
the early part of the week, then slowly creeping back up a few
degrees above normal by the middle of the week. In other words,
enjoy the soon-to-be-here fall temps and weather once we get
passed the severe weather potential tomorrow night.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT FRI OCT 13 2017

Low level wind shear becoming a higher concern with winds more out
of the southwest around 45 kts at 220 degrees at 1500 feet.
Surface winds around 5 to 10 knots increase the chances for some
wind shear through the night. Expect VFR conditions there after
with a wind shift to the northeast associated with a surface
boundary. Some rain showers will be possible north of KSTJ, but
those showers should remain away from the terminals themselves.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...Leighton



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