Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 140505
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1205 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

The surface boundary that brought last night`s and this morning`s
precipitation has made slow progress today, and sits nearly
stationary across central Missouri, running from KCNU to KCOU. A few
storms have begun to pop up along that boundary in the far southern
part of the forecast area, where low level convergence is maximized.
Lapse rates in the vicinity of the boundary are not very impressive,
which should mitigate any robust deep convection. Likewise with the
0-6 km shear vectors being at or below 30 kts parameters don`t look
well in place for organized storm activity. As we move through the
evening and overnight hours the boundary should continue to slowly
slip to the south, dragging the best chances of precipitation along
with it.

The focus then shifts to the next feature, which is expected to come
through the area for Monday. Currently sitting across northern
Nebraska, up into the northern plains sits a relatively cool/dry
airmass, which is expected to make its way into the area by Monday.
Along the leading edge of this air mass, and aided by some mid level
ascent associated with the large upper wave just to the NE of the
forecast area, a few showers will form and slide SSE through the
area. These showers look to be rather progressive and shouldn`t
bring much in the way of precip accumulation, but most of the area
could at least see a period of rain on Monday. As the surface ridge
responsible for the cool/dry air mass settles into the area it will
bring a fairly significant pattern change to the area, as seasonally
cool temperatures settle in for the middle part of the work week.
Daytime highs on Tuesday through Thursday will likely reside in the
70s, with overnight lows likely dropping into the 50s. While the
temperatures may not be THAT chilly, the dryness of the air may
cause it to feel a bit nippy in the mornings this work week.

Temperatures will eventually rebound back to seasonal normals by the
late part of the week, as the surface ridge slides to the east and
return flow picks up. A couple of features look interesting in the
extended. The first features that looks a bit out of place for this
time of year is a shortwave mid level trough, which looks to carve
into the NW flow and dig through the southern plains, bringing a
chance for rain to areas south of the forecast area. Should this
feature pan out a little farther north it could affect the southern
portions of the forecast area with some rain. The best chance for
widespread rain will come this weekend as another trough with a
better trajectory to bring rain to the area will move through and
drag another cold front with it.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

Patchy fog is expected tonight especially east of the KC terminals
into central MO. Front moving into the area tomorrow morning and
afternoon will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
to much of the area, particularly from 10 AM to 3 PM. Clearing
conditions will move in for the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Hawblitzel





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