Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 292039
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
339 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Stormy weather is still expected later today and overnight as part
of a large Great Basin/Desert Southwest low ejects as a shortwave
trough through the Plains States this weekend. Currently, the
shortwave is pivoting into the southwest Plains, and will continue
to sweep northeast overnight, with the surface low in Texas and the
associated front along the Arkansas River lifting north today in
response.

For the rest of today and tonight...the active area of storms across
central Kansas into Oklahoma will continue to lift northeast as the
parent shortwave swings into the Plains, bringing storms into
eastern Kansas and Missouri later today. Current timing has light
rain spreading into the region late this afternoon with areas of
embedded thunderstorms and moderate rain spreading across the region
soon thereafter. Severe threat form thunderstorms, whether this
afternoon or this evening, are looking minimal as instability is
mostly to the south of our area with only a few hundred J/KG of
MUCAPE advertised advecting in aloft; though sufficient to fuel the
embedded thunderstorm activity. If any strong storms could get going,
locally gusty winds and small hail would be the threats given the
effective shear that will likely accompany the complex moving through
Kansas. Additionally, any rainfall tonight will generally run between
0.5 and 1 inch, but areas that get strong embedded thunderstorms
might pick up between 1 and 2 inches of rain locally. Any additional
rain will likely exacerbate already ongoing flooding issues across
the region and therefore will need monitoring overnight. However, on
the positive side, while the system has a lot of precipitable water
to work with --PWATS of 1.2" or higher-- the system is progressive,
so training thunderstorm activity is not expected.

For Saturday...much of the rain will likely shift north to the Iowa
border and points north, or to our east, as the surface low and
associated upper level shortwave head northeast through Missouri.
Have sped up the progress of POPs across the region as a result,
but can not rule out some isolated to scattered activity lingering
across the region. However, once again no severe storms are expected
as the better instability and shear will be off to our south and
east, though not that far away for parts of central Missouri.

Sunday on into next work week...the parent shortwave, driving
today`s activity, will slowly continue northeast with a follow on
shortwave ejecting out of the southwest to follow it. A surface high
will press into the Plains behind the early weekend shortwave, and
many of the models continue to advertise storms lingering through
Sunday near the Iowa border as a result, and while we have kept some
POPs for the late weekend confidence in POPs from Sunday are low.
Then the work week looks nice. There will still be enough of a trough
to our west next work week to keep the prevailing westerlies to our
south for Monday and Tuesday, thus a little cool to begin to the work
week, but we will be dry and temperatures will lift back into the 70s
by mid-work-week.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR clouds currently prevail across the terminals in western
Missouri, and while the CIGs are expected to bounce around a little
in advance of a large convective complex moving in our direction the
ceilings should stay in the MVFR range. However, once the rain moves
in later-this-afternoon/early-this-evening CIGs and surface
visibilities will drop based on upstream readings. Have pushed the
overnight hours down into the IFR range as a result as the more
robust storm activity arrives this evening, but then quickly clear
conditions mid to late Saturday morning as dry air sweeps in under
the system lifting across us tonight. This will also bring gusty
winds that will veer to the southwest with the scattering of the
clouds.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter



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