Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 242006

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
306 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Issued at 306 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2016

The main challenge/concern for this forecast centers on the
potential for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold
front moves through the region. A progressive upper level trough is
expected to move through the Northern Plains Tuesday night and
Wednesday and will help to push that cold front through the area.
Moist advection ahead of this front will lead to surface dewpoints in
the upper 50 to lower 60 degree range. This will help produce perhaps
up to 1250 J/kg MUCAPE Tuesday afternoon/evening over northwestern MO
and northeastern KS. However, the timing of the front, moving through
late in the night or early Wednesday morning, doesn`t look favorable
as instability drops off during frontal passage. None-the-less, with
favorable shear and modest instability for the time of year, a few
strong thunderstorms look possible Tuesday evening and even through
the overnight. Even with the front slowing a bit, it looks like
precipitation chances will have ended across the forecast area by mid

For later in the week, there isn`t much of an airmass change with
regards to temperatures for Thursday, although it will be a much
drier airmass. But that helps set the stage for a very warm day on
Friday ahead of the next system. Another upper level system will
track well north of the area and into the Great Lakes. Strong
southerly flow ahead of this system will advect very warm
temperatures aloft  with deep mixing into that warm air. This will
lead to highs likely near 80 for much of the forecast area and
possibly into the lower to middle 80s. This will also be accompanied
by strong southwesterly winds. The frontal passage itself should be
dry and the replacing airmass will likely knock 15 to 20 degrees
from the previous day`s highs. But this basically gets the area back
to normal. Monday looks like a repeat of Friday with strong warm
advection leading to temperature in the mid to upper 70s.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2016

Ceilings are expected to develop and lower late tonight and tomorrow
morning across eastern KS and western MO. Cloud bases will likely be
in the 4,000 to 5,000 ft range but may be lower depending on how
strong the moist advection is into the region. Winds will gradually
veer to the southeast late tonight and tomorrow morning but should
remain less than 12kts.




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