Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 102353
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
553 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 400 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2016

Surface low pressure forming over the central High Plains has
allowed southerly winds to pick up across the area, allowing for
temperatures to warm back above freezing for the first time in
several days. An effective warm front, or freezing line is situated
across the northeastern corner of Missouri. With steady influx of
"warmer" air and cloud cover, it`s unlikely that areas south of
Interstate 70 will get below freezing tonight, and will likely miss
any chance for freezing drizzle, once the light precipitation begins
early Sunday morning. Areas north of Interstate 70, and really HWY
36 will have the best chance to see some freezing drizzle during the
morning hours on Sunday before the warmer air lifts north enough to
get surface temps above freezing. Forecast soundings are fairly thin
with the saturation, so precipitation accumulations, whether they be
in the form of liquid rain or light freezing drizzle/rain will be
very minimal, perhaps on the order of a couple hundredths of an
inch. Should any freezing rain accumulate on surfaces in far
northern Missouri, it will only be a couple hours before surface
temps rise above freezing, ending any chance for surfaces to be iced
over.

After a couple days of near-normal temperatures for Sunday and
Monday, as day time highs are expected to reach the lower 40s.
Another lengthy plunge of cold air will make its way into the area
for Tuesday, and will persist through the rest of the week, with
well-below normal temperatures through the rest of the week. Highs
will likely remain in the 20s all week, with lows generally in the
teens. There will be a small chance for light snow on Wednesday in
the post frontal environment, once the cold air settles in. Models
haven`t been incredibly consistent with this minimal event, however
there is some signal for some very light snow Wednesday, that could
accumulate a couple tenths of an inch, with the best chance for
these accumulations to occur north of I-70.

The next appreciable chance for precipitation will come late in the
week, and into the weekend. Much uncertainty revolves around this
event, not only with respect to the individual models indicating
completely different solutions, but also with how the thermal
profile shakes out.  This forecast reflects temperatures never
rising above freezing at any point during the week, which would
point toward a frozen-only precipitation type.  That being said, the
GFS is pretty aggressive on the 12z run with a push of warm low
level air/moisture, which in combination with the cold surface
temperatures would hint toward all precipitation being frozen.
Soundings at this point do not saturate to the dendritic growth
layer between -10 and -18 C, which would hint - at least at this
point in time - at more of a freezing rain/drizzle or sleet event.
That being said, given the aforementioned uncertainty with how this
late week system will play out, will need to get a little closer in
time before bringing any appreciable confidence into the solution of
this event.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2016

VFR stratus around 4k ft will linger through most of the night before
ceilings begin to lower from west to east towards sunrise. Expect IFR
ceilings with MVFR visibilities due to drizzle and fog to form
across west central MO by sunrise. These conditions will spread
eastward through early afternoon. Where surface temperatures remain
below freezing over north central and northeast MO freezing drizzle
is possible.

A cold front will swing southeast from northwest MO during the
afternoon pushing the drizzle east and lifting IFR ceilings to VFR
values.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...MJ



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