Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 231119
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
519 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 316 AM CST TUE JAN 23 2018

Northwesterly winds will remain gusty early Tuesday morning as
increased low-level flow wrapped around a strong surface low
remains in place until the mid-morning. Wind gusts near 30 mph
will combine with sub-freezing air temps and make for wind chill
values in the mid-teens across the area. The other concern for
Tuesday morning is the potential for patchy slick roadways and
walking surfaces, though continued dry and breezy conditions
should limit glazing overall. Lingering low-level moisture and
northwesterly surface flow will help to moderate existing cooler
temps for one more day before the next warming trend arrives
Wednesday.

A weak short-wave trough will clip the region Wednesday, though
other than mid-level clouds, precipitation will be limited by a
developing surface ridge centered over the Southern and Central
Plains. This feature will also permit a return of southwesterly flow
underneath mid-level ridging, which will set the stage for afternoon
highs in the mid 50s both Thursday and Friday. Precipitation chances
will then return by Friday into Saturday ahead of a cold front.
Moisture fields will remain relatively shallow until the frontal
boundary approaches central Missouri and points east, thus areas
most likely to see appreciable rainfall are those east of the I-35
corridor. The majority of precip will develop within the warm
sector, keeping precip in liquid form. However, there may be a brief
window of wintry precip early Saturday morning as the thermal
profile cools behind the front. Little to no accumulation is
expected, however. Surface temps will cool slightly in the wake
of the departing storm system, though will retain above normal
values in the mid to upper 40s through the weekend. Another brief
warming trend looks to develop heading into the mid-week before a
possible return of arctic air toward the beginning of February.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 513 AM CST TUE JAN 23 2018

Gusty surface winds out of the northwest will steadily decrease
through the morning hours, eventually turning southwesterly by
Tuesday evening. Low-level moisture and resulting MVFR ceilings
will begin to erode before 18Z, and VFR conditions are expected to
persist through the remainder of the forecast period. Mid-level
stratus will then temporarily approach overhead this evening
before clearing overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh



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