Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 220358

1058 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Issued at 348 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Main focus in the near-term obviously remains heat related as
the warmest airmass of the season continues to establish itself
over the area. This is all the result of broad upper-level ridging
that continues to build east across the central Plains and lower
Missouri Rvr Vly this afternoon. Latest observations showing lower
90s across most areas west of Route 65...with upper 80s now reported
to the east. Earlier adjustments to inherited heat advisory appear to
be working...however nobody looks to to escape the wrath of the heat
monster come tomorrow. More on this a little later after we tackle
the synoptic setup for the heat.

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing progressive near-zonal flow
across the northern Plains this afternoon...with broad clockwise
rotation noted further south across the central/southern High Plains
as well as the southern Rockies. Strong shortwave energy seen over
the western Dakotas this hr will ultimately flatten the upper ridge to
the south while simultaneously pushing the warmest air now seen over
the High Plains east over our area. This should occur during the
overnight hrs which will set the stage for even warmer temperatures
on Tuesday.

Fcst models to include both the GFS and WRF do suggest some
developing overrunning precip after 6z across the far northeast
tonight...however inspection of several BUFKIT soundings along with
collaboration with adjacent WFOs suggests any precip that does fall
will be widely scattered along with the potential of remaining just
virga. As a result...have elected to maintain a dry fcst with
overnight lows expected to fall into the lower to middle 70s. This
combined with dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s will make tonight
a very warm and uncomfortable one...especially for those without
access to air conditioning.

For tomorrow...850-mb thermal ridge to become firmly established over
the area as upper ridge axis gets shunted east as previously
discussed. This combined with southwesterly downslope should allow
temps to easily warm into the middle to upper 90s...with a few
readings at/slightly above the century mark not out question across
portions of northeastern Kansas. In fact...warmest values expected
across far northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas where heat index
values may exceed 110F. Not surprisingly...inherited heat advisory
has been maintained through the day tomorrow.

Relief will finally be in store tomorrow night as fcst models remain
very consistent in tracking a cold front south across the area. From
this vantage point...expect front to begin moving into the area near
midnight...before steadily moving south through the remainder of the
AM hrs. As front runs into such a warm and unstable airmass...expect
developing shwrs/storms early Wednesday as front heads south. Overall
severe threat appears low this afternoon as better wind fields and
resultant deep-layer shear likely to remain north across the upper
Miss Rvr Vly. This threat if verified on the latest SPC Day 2 outlook
which maintained the 5% severe threat for areas north of the I-70
corridor. This will have to be watched however as any slow down on
frontal timing may better juxtaposition stronger winds aloft with
convergence along the main front.

Cooler...near seasonable temps expected to arrive on Wednesday
following fropa with improving conditions expected through the day.
High temps should warm into the lower to middle 80s...which will feel
much better following the current warm spell.

Next chance for organized rain/storms looks to hold off until early
Friday when Wednesday`s early morning cold front begins to lift back
north as a warm front. This feature will be accompanied by a veering
low-level jet of nearly 40 kts as northern stream wave passes to our
north and east. This should result in decent isentropic ascent which
supports chc pops right through Friday and early portions of the
upcoming weekend. Improving conditions by late Sat morning/afternoon
as upper wave exits stage right. By Sunday...both GFS and ECMWF show
redeveloping convection across the southern zones by afternoon as
another front stalls south of our area. This should maintain an
unsettled period through early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Generally quiet weather expected through late afternoon. A cold front
will sag toward the area Tuesday evening and may be accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the better coverage
expected to be across north central Missouri eastward.


KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ006>008-

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-



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