Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 180946

446 AM CDT Mon May 18 2015


Beginning of work week will feature cooler temperatures and dry
conditions as surface high pressure settles in behind a cool front.
Dewpoints behind the front are similar to those ahead of the front so
expect little change in relative humidities through Tuesday. Highs
under sunny skies today will be in lower a very comfortable
start to the week.

Late on Tuesday night into Wednesday the next upper trough will move
into the region from the west and bring the next chance for showers
and thunderstorms. Upper dynamics fairly weak with this trough but
decent moisture from the gulf so precipitable water around an inch
and a half. Given the already saturated soils...there is at least
modest concern about additional flooding mid week.

Thursday should be mainly dry as upper ridging builds into the area
again ahead of the next upper trough that will be poised over
southwest US Friday. Ahead of this trough the upper cyclonic flow and
lee side cyclogenesis will bring thunderstorms to central and
southern plains on Friday afternoon or evening. Too early to be
confident in severe potential for Friday night through the weekend
but will have to monitor as we could see another round of severe
storms late Saturday night.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period. But there may be
period of MVFR clouds tomorrow morning behind the front in the cold
advection. There isn`t a strong signal for this, especially since dry
advection will be ongoing as well, but upstream observations and
satellite imagery show some lower clouds developing. For now have
only mentioned a scattered group. Otherwise, winds will be shifting
to the northwest tonight and may briefly become gusty tomorrow
morning. But these should diminish by the afternoon as the pressure
gradient weakens and winds aloft diminish.




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