Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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495
FXUS63 KEAX 251736
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1236 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 332 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017

A relatively stagnant upper low centered over the Oklahoma and
Kansas border will be slow to move today before a deepening trough
upstream finally pushes the storm system northeast by this
afternoon. While most of the moisture being advected northward
ahead of the surface low will be limited to areas well east of the
forecast area, some of this will be wrapped around the surface
low with resulting showers possible across the area today. Dense
stratus, mostly confined beneath 10kft, will limit the
availability of surface instability across the entire forecast
area. Marginal elevated instability will present at least a chance
of an isolated thunderstorm or two this afternoon, though no
severe weather is anticipated.

Persistent dewpoint values, rain chances, and extensive cloud cover
will moderate afternoon highs for most areas today. Expecting values
ranging from the upper 40s across northwest Missouri, to the
lower 60s across central Missouri, where weak warm advection will
persist. By the end of the day, additional rain totals will
approach between a quarter to half an inch. Overnight lows will
also be moderated, though slightly cooler than the previous night
with weak CAA, dropping into lower to mid 40s.

A weak shortwave will traverse the region late Sunday night into
Monday, bringing the next chance of precipitation during a fairly
unsettled pattern next week. The most favored areas for
precipitation Sunday into Monday will be limited to those south
of I-70, as the surface low treks much further south compared to
the previous system. Rain totals will remain below half an inch
given the brevity of the activity. More widespread rain chances
will commence as early as Wednesday and persist through the late
week as a more notable upper low lifts northeast out of the
southwestern CONUS. Both the temporal and spatial track of the
surface low remains somewhat uncertain at this point, but models
continue to suggest widespread precipitation through the late
week. Temperatures throughout the next week will be comfortable at
or near seasonal values, and multiple chances of rain will
provide some relief for the recent dry trend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017

Low ceilings have been dominating at the four terminals today as a
low pressure system lingers in the region. While some dry air has
been trying to work its way into the area, stratus deck won`t be
going anywhere today through tonight, with low ceilings
persisting throughout much of the TAF period. By tomorrow, look
for light winds to become more westerly as the low moves off
toward the NE.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...lg



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