Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 120517
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014
Issued at 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014
Temperatures will be the main concern for the rest of today and
tomorrow as a warm front sets up just north of the MO border and the
thermal axis slides into northern Missouri. Blowoff from morning
storms in NE and IA and accas have helped hold temperatures down
this morning through early this afternoon, but breaks in the cloud
cover and some cirrus dissipation, plus increasing southwest winds
this afternoon, should help temperatures rise into the upper 80s to
low 90s by early evening. Nocturnal convection is again possible
across NE and IA tonight, but upper level winds will transition to
westerly tonight into early Saturday, keeping most of the associated
cloud cover out of the forecast area tomorrow. Mainly clear skies
tomorrow, combined with 850 mb temperatures in the +22 to +24 C
range, will bring temperatures into the 90s across most of the CWA
by Saturday afternoon.
Any thunderstorm activity should remain confined to the warm front
in southern Iowa on Saturday; however, storm chances will begin to
push south early Saturday evening to cover any potential outflow
boundaries or propagation off the boundary into the forecast area.
Most models indicate that even outflow driven storms should remain
north of the KC area through sunrise Sunday morning, but weakening
convection could make it through the length of the CWA on Sunday. As
a result, showers and storms are possible on and off Sunday, but are
not likely to be robust.
The main cold front will push through early Monday, but associated
convection and its strength will depend on how any precipitation
evolves on Sunday and how it impacts the environment. Most models
indicate some sort of convection pushing through the area Sunday and
leaving slightly cooler, more stable air behind with light northerly
winds. Little (if any) recovery is expected before cold frontal
passage on Monday -- especially across the northern half of the
forecast area -- which decreases the potential for any strong to
severe storms despite dewpoints in the upper 60`s to low 70`s and
deep layer shear values in the 50-60 kt range.
Much cooler temperatures and dry conditions are expected in the wake
of the cold front Tuesday through the end of the forecast period.
Near record lows are possible Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, and a
record low maximum temperature is possible Tuesday.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
Little change in this forecast from the previous forecast. Inserted
an ending time for the wind gusts Saturday evening. A cold front will
sag southward through the evening/overnight hours on Saturday night.
Expect the convective activity to remain north of the terminals until
the very end of the forecast period, but thunderstorms should be
moving into KSTJ and KMCI/KMKC shortly after 06z.