Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 230545
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Not overly impressed on rain chances for this evening. Band of showers
remains well to the south of the CWA from central OK through south central
MO while ceilings have improved considerably across most of the CWA.
Even drizzle chances look puny this evening. Will have to wait for
the better dynamics to arrive after midnight as a piece of mid level
energy breaks away from the TX upper trough and heads northward.
Under this scenario see no need to carry evening PoPs so have
stripped them away for the most part.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions will prevail initially with gradually diminishing
conditions expected through the period. Rain chances overnight are
marginal, but could see some spotty showers into the early morning
hours. Winds will gradually transition to NW as a cold front makes
its way through the area. Expecting to see further reduced ceilings
and visibilities as increased rain chances set up late Sunday
afternoon. Gusty NW winds will pick up coinciding with the frontal
passage. Also seeing evidence of a rain/snow mix event toward the very
end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh






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