Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 271715
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1115 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Main concerns in the very short term will be for cold temperatures
and wind chills this morning. The bigger concern in the short term
will be for accumulating snow this weekend.

Another cold morning is underway across the area as a 1042mb Arctic
high is sinking south into the local area. This is allowing for
clear skies and light winds providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows this morning will bottom out between 5 above zero to 5 below
zero. Although winds will be light, wind chill values between 5 and
15 below will greet kids heading out to the school bus and people
making their morning commute. High pressure will remain in control
through most of the day today and as such temperatures will not
rebound much as highs will only achieve the teens to lower 20s which
is 25 to 30 degrees below normal. Clouds will be on the increase
late this afternoon and tonight as winds back to the southeast. This
will keep lows in the upper single digits to mid teens tonight.

This weekends weather maker is evident on water vapor imagery coming
onshore in the Pacific Northwest. This trough will dig south across
the western CONUS today. Tonight, warm air advection will be
underway drawing mid level moisture back into the area. Tomorrow
morning, a shortwave ejecting out from the western trough will move
into the central Plains. Snow will begin to move into eastern Kansas
by late Saturday morning and then overspread the area during the
afternoon hours with deep and broad isentropic ascent the main
driving factor. Snow will then continue into Saturday night with 3
to 5 inches expected by Sunday morning. Models then continue to
advertise a second shortwave moving through the area on Sunday which
will help force a surface trough through the area. Models are
showing a low developing along this surface trough as in moves into
the region. Placement of this low differs amongst models however it
appears that a band of snow capable of producing an additional inch
or two of snow will be possible on the day Sunday. This shortwave
will move through the area by Sunday evening and a quick moving area
on high pressure will build into the area Sunday night drying
conditions out.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

The primary weather focus during the extended will be associated
with the highly amplified, positively-tilted upper trough projected
to emerge into the central CONUS by midweek. In advance of this
system, the pattern will favor strong warm air and moisture
advection within a broad warm sector. Initial ascent may generate
some light precipitation within the exiting cold air, providing a
short window of some sleet or freezing rain potential across the
northeast half of the forecast area on Monday. Very warm H85
temperatures of +10C will move into the area by Tuesday morning,
temporarily ending any concern of wintry precipitation. Rain will
overspread the entire area on Tuesday, while temperatures within the
warm sector reach the 40s to middle 50s. A cold front will move
through Tuesday night, with some of the lingering precipitation
transitioning to light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday before the
precipitation ends. Any potential impacts from this multi-day event
should be associated with the beginning and end of the
precipitation, with the large majority of precipitation falling as
rain with above freezing surface temperatures. Thereafter, cold
weather with below normal temperatures and dry weather are expected
for Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure builds into the central
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions expected through the first half of the forecast
period as surface high pressure continues to work to the east through
the afternoon. Winter weather is expected to commence toward the end
of the period around 16Z. Cloud cover ahead of this system will
filter in this evening and continue to lower through the overnight
and early morning hours. Expecting to see MVFR ceilings develop near
12Z with IFR conditions not out of question once snow begins to fall
at the terminal sites. The main forcing of the activity will occur
after 18Z, at which point IFR conditions are likely.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh






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