Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 290821
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
321 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

This last few isolated showers from last nights scattered convection
are diminishing early this morning. As such, dry conditions can be
expected through the rest of Saturday morning albeit under cloudy
skies. This morning a slow moving cold front extends from Des Moines
to Lawrence. This front will continue to progress slowly eastward
through the day today. Temperatures out ahead of the cold front will
rise into the low 80s which may provide for enough instability for
scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon despite very
weak forcing. Perhaps the better potential for scattered
thunderstorm development will be due to a vort max moving through
the area late this afternoon and evening. With these couple features
affecting the area this afternoon/evening, have slight chance POPs
over the eastern CWA. Surface high pressure should then begin to
build into the area Saturday night providing for drier conditions.
On Sunday, an upper level ridge currently residing over the eastern
Rockies and western High Plains will begin to shift east into the
area. This will help temperatures warm into the mid 80s on Sunday.
This upper level ridge is then expected to remain over the area
Monday and Tuesday with increased warm air advection. Expect highs
on both days to rise into the upper 80s to near 90. Both the EC and
GFS indicate a shortwave flattening out the ridge in the Tuesday
night through Wednesday time frame which will provide the best
chance for precipitation in the extended period. However, despite
the shortwave flattening the ridge temporarily it is expected to
build right back over the area by Thursday keeping conditions warm.
in fact, temperatures by the end of next week are expected to remain
in the upper 80s to lower 90s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Cold front currently moving through the region which will lead to a
gradual wind shift to the northwest late this evening/early Saturday
morning. Satellite imagery this evening showing plenty of low status
across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa...which fcst models show
gradually shifting south across area terminals after 8z or so. As
such...have elected to highlight IFR probabilities at all sites with
the exception of IXD which may be too far south. Look for minor
improvements in the morning with MVFR cigs likely sticking around
through early to mid-afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...32


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