Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 251128
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
628 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 322 AM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017

Regional radars showing light precipitation extending from central
Kansas into Miami County, KS this morning as weak isentropic
ascent interacts with an approaching weak shortwave disturbance.
With dewpoint depressions on the order of +10 degrees this
morning, much of this activity is likely not reaching the ground
except for the more intense activity further west. Otherwise,
another beautiful day lies in store for the area with even less
humid conditions expected this afternoon as drier air settles over
the region following the passage of a secondary cold front this
morning. This will ensure the continuation of northwest winds with
afternoon highs topping out in the middle to upper 70s, a few
degrees cooler than yesterday due to the slightly cooler airmass.
Precip chances look to increase later tonight and into Monday as
a carbon copy effect redevelops as warm advection isentropic
ascent interacts with additional shortwave energy. Inspection of
several BUFKIT soundings again yields little in the way of
instability overnight with a gradual increase forecast later in
the day on Monday. As such, expect increasing thunder chances by
Monday afternoon with still limited instability effectively
limiting the severe weather threat. Monday looks to be cool once
again thanks to persistent cloud cover and precipitation chances,
with mid 70s expected.

Cold front to pass through the region Monday night as high
pressure builds in from the north. This should reduce precip
chances across our area as we head into Tuesday, with temps
beginning their rebound as southerly flow becomes re-
established over the lwr Missouri Vly. From this point forward,
unsettled weather will be the name of the game to close out the
work week as wet weather returns. Overall synoptic situation by
midweek will involve a stalled upper closed low across southern
Canada, with periodic shortwaves rotating through our region in
persistent cyclonic flow aloft. Throw a stalled front in there
along with a decent low-level jet just about every night through
the end of the work week, the recipe is set for a period of wet
weather across northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. The
first round is expected on Wednesday with chances steadily
continuing through late Friday. By Saturday, drier weather looks
to make a return as the upper low is finally able to shift to the
east while a trailing cold front pushes through our area by the
start of next weekend. With some areas across our area bordering
of 4 inches below normal for annual precip so far this year, we
stand to benefit from any rain Mother Nature is willing to give
us.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017

Winds to veer to the northwest this morning following the passage
of a weak cold front that continues to move through the region.
Otherwise, expect plenty of midlevel cloud cover today as cloud
mass across the Central Plains continues to slide southeast with
time. Winds to become light and variable overnight with rain
chances developing after the 06z time frame. Best chance for
precip will occur at IXD per latest model trends, however later
additions may be needed for remaining terminals after additional
model data arrives.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32


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