Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 112316
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
616 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 301 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2017

With high pressure dominating the area over the next couple of days,
quieter, cooler and drier weather is expected. The front that moved
through last evening, giving us scattered showers and a few storms,
has pushed to the Red River valley. With the front pushed that far
south, it`s growing more likely that most of Sunday will be dry as
well. It may not be until later in the afternoon or even overnight
that any rain moves into the area. The better chances though will
likely be Monday when a more distinct wave moves across KS helping
to force convection over KS that may then move into the area during
the day Monday. There may be a lull in any precipitation in the
local area Tuesday before another wave moves east across the area
Wednesday. This active pattern may persist into Thursday night or
Friday, giving periodic shower and thunderstorm chances through the
end of the work week.

Overall, the threat of any severe weather looks low through the
entire forecast for several reasons. First, instability will be
weak through the first half of the week. Then by the time some
instability can build later in the week, shear looks to be weaker.
So overall, at the moment, there doesn`t appear to be a good
syncing of instability and shear.

Regarding temperatures, below normal highs are expected through the
weekend and into the early part of next week. Temperatures look
closer to normal by Wednesday and by Thursday and Friday conditions
look warm and humid again. Although at this point it doesn`t look
like excessive heat, just more typical August conditions.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2017

Diurnal cu will continue to dissipate over the next hour, and
winds will begin to diminish to less than 5 kts through sunset,
becoming variable in direction but generally out of the north to
northeast. Scattered cirrus will stream through the region over-
night, and although winds will be light overnight, low-level RH
should stay low enough to keep patchy fog from developing.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Laflin



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