Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 142332
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
632 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014
Already seeing an expanding area of clouds and a few showers across
parts of NE and northern KS this afternoon where warm air advection
is increasing. While these showers may weaken later this evening, a
more solid area of rain and a few thunderstorms should expand and
push into northern parts of KS and MO late tonight into Monday
morning as WAA becomes enhanced by a developing low-level jet. Feed
of higher theta-e air within the jet will also bring some elevated
instability to the area late tonight and Monday morning, with some
models now showing MUCAPE values as high as 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Shear
and low-level forcing do not appear particularly favorable for strong
or organized storms, but could still see a few storms capable of
producing brief heavy rain through late Monday morning.
A cold front will slide in from the northwest through the day Monday
and bring a gradual drying trend through late afternoon. Airmass
behind the front won`t be quite as cold as the one that gave record
lows Saturday morning, but will still bring temperatures 10 to 15
degrees below normal with lows in the middle and upper 40s Monday
night. This could also yield to areas of fog toward sunrise Tuesday
similar to what happened Saturday morning.
Tuesday will be the coolest day of the week with post-frontal
temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70. A steady warming trend will
then set in after this point with highs reaching the upper 70s and
lower 80s by Friday. Could see a few showers or thunderstorms during
this warm air advection pattern, particularly Wednesday afternoon and
evening. With dry high pressure dominating the Great Lakes and Mid
Mississippi Valley through this time, the better chances for any rain
will be across far western Missouri and westward into Kansas. Better
chances for more widespread rain will arrive next weekend with the
arrival of another cold front.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014
VFR conds will cont thru the short term with bkn cigs btn 4-5kft.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front overnight
north of the terminals. These thunderstorms may move into the VC of
the terminals around 09Z-10Z as the front sinks southeastward. The
cold front will then move thru the terminals 13Z-15Z veering winds
from the south to the north. There is also the chance for showers
behind the cold front but they may redevelop south of the terminals
so have opted for VCSH for the late morning into the early afternoon.
Also, behind the front models agree there will be MVFR even possible
IFR cigs tomorrow.