Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 060528
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1128 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 257 PM CST TUE DEC 5 2017

Cold air advection continuing across the region this afternoon
following yesterday`s cold frontal passage. Winds gusting up to 30
mph combined with dry surface fuels and low humidity have
resulted in another afternoon of elevated fire concerns, however
current temps in the 40s will hopefully keep this threat in check.
Heading into the overnight, expect the passage of another lobe of
energy aloft, however with very little moisture to work with, its
passage will be marked with little more than increasing mid-level
cloud cover aloft. Early morning lows Wednesday should drop into
the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Broad northwest flow to prevail over the region tomorrow with
breezy northwest surface winds. Models highlight light QPF across
western portions of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon as
another lobe of energy rotates over the area, however BUFKIT
forecast soundings show very dry low-level conditions. In any
event, a passing sprinkle or two cannot be ruled out, and a
mention has been added with this afternoon`s forecast package. The
bigger story will arrive Wednesday night when a secondary shot of
cold air surges south over the lower Missouri Valley following
the passage of a reinforcing cold front. Its passage will mark the
beginning of below normal temperatures which will persist through
the conclusion of the work week.

Dry conditions to continue through the upcoming weekend as
northwest flow prevailing aloft. Temperatures should begin to
moderate both Saturday and Sunday as southerly low-level flow
returns to the area. The next chance for precip looks to arrive
Monday night into Tuesday as the next wave passes aloft.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST TUE DEC 5 2017

Increased sustained surface winds will persist through the
overnight hours, with additional strengthening expected by the
mid- morning. Wind gusts should be fairly limited, peaking at
around 20 kts Wednesday afternoon. Broken to perhaps overcast
cloud cover should develop by the early afternoon before partially
clearing late Wednesday evening. At this time, VFR ceilings are
expected given a lingering low-level dry air mass.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Welsh



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