Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 182315
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
615 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 239 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2017

Deep mixing is causing the low stratus deck over west central
Missouri to quickly scatter out this afternoon, and most areas
should be mostly clear by late afternoon. In the meantime a cold
front over northern Nebraska will drop close to or just north of
the Missouri/Iowa border overnight before becoming stalled and
lifting back north on Wednesday. This feature will likely spark
off an area of showers and thunderstorms overnight, particularly
after midnight when it will begin interacting with a strengthening
LLJ over northeast KS. Most of this activity should stay just
north of the state line in closer proximity to the low level
boundary, but convergence ahead of the low level jet could assist
in getting convection as far south as St. Joseph and Kirksville
late tonight. Any strong storms or heavy rain are likely to stay
north of the forecast area where elevated instability and shear
will be stronger.

Gusty south winds on Wednesday will help boost temperatures into
the lower and possibly even middle 80s across the entire forecast
area on Wednesday. This will set the stage for some possibly
strong or severe storms Wednesday evening when a cold front will
drop in from the northwest. Models have slowed down the southward
progression of this feature, which is now not expected to enter
far northwest Missouri until late evening and not getting east of
I-35 until well after midnight, maybe even closer to sunrise. This
slower movement will keep the threat for strong and severe storms
confined mostly to areas northwest of the I-35 corridor Wednesday
evening. MLCAPE values around 1000 to 2000 J/kg and modest shear
values could support scattered hail storms and a few areas of
damaging winds, but veered low-level flow will keep the tornado
threat low. Instability will decrease fairly quickly after
midnight bringing a quick downward trend to any convection as it
gets east of I-35.

High pressure behind Wednesday`s front will bring cooler
conditions for Thursday and particularly by Friday. Meanwhile the
next storms system will eject out into the Plains on Friday and
bring widespread rain, some of which may be heavy, to parts of the
Plains and Mississippi River Valley Friday into Saturday. All
models have taken an noticeable southward shift with this system
over the past several runs, so at this time the highest threat for
widespread heavy rain appears to be south of Interstate 70, and
perhaps south of the entire forecast area across the Ozarks if
models keep shifting south. Areas sensitive to flooding will want
to keep an eye on this system as it could produce as much as 2 to
4 inches of rain wherever the heaviest precipitation tracks.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2017

Patchy scattered to broken cirrus based around 20 kft will drift
across the region tonight, while SSW winds lessen and back to the
south at all TAF sites. A few isolated showers are possible near
KSTJ shortly after sunrise; however, the bulk of any morning
precipitation will likely focus north of the terminals and may not
have an impact as far south as KSTJ. Winds will begin to increase
out of the SSW after sunrise, rising sharply to sustained speeds
up to 20 kts and gusts to 30 kts out of the southwest after 18z.
Scattered cumulus based between 3-4 kft will develop during the
afternoon, but a strong capping inversion will keep pop-up storms
from developing during the TAF period. A few thunderstorms are
possible just beyond the end of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Laflin



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