Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 130435
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1035 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 259 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2017

Surface ridge has started to encroach the area from the west, which
has allowed the surface pressure gradient to gradually slacken from
west to east. Gusty northwest winds that have persisted through the
morning and afternoon will subside by tonight. There will likely not
be any low clouds overnight, but passing cirrus could blanket the
mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. In the midlevels a deep
closed low currently dwells over the Baja Mexico region. Downstream
of the deep low some shortwave ridging is present over the forecast
area, which is allowing for good sunshine, despite the cold air
advection associated with the NW winds and the surface ridge. This
closed low will eventually kick out across the southern Plains. As
it moves east it will gradually fill in and become enveloped within
the northern stream meridional H5 flow. There could be some chances
for rain south of our region, with perhaps a slight chance of rain
across areas of south of HWY 50. Prior to the deep low`s arrival
there will also be a very quickly moving shortwave trough within the
aforementioned H5 meridional flow. This shortwave trough could bring
some very light precipitation in the I-70 corridor.

Once those potential weather making features move out of the area
signals are there for temperatures to get unseasonably warm for the
late part of the week into the weekend. Shortwave mid level ridging
moves over the area for the late part of the week, and good
southerly (warm air advection) flow will bring a nice and warm air
mass to the area for Thursday and Friday. The trends in the forecast
for the last couple days is to increase highs Thur-Sun, and if model
trends continue to be consistent it`s conceivable that the area
could see one or two days of 70 degree temperatures late in the week
and/or weekend. In the deep extended forecast the next chance for
rain could come early next week as the next trough ejects into the
Southern/Central Plains. Too early for specifics on that system.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1021 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2017

Winds will vary overnight as surface high pressure continues to
build from the east. Building cloud cover will approach the area
Monday morning as a weak wave ejects out of an upper low across
the southwestern CONUS. A brief period of light rain is possible
Monday afternoon, though given the dry lower levels, expecting
mostly dry conditions through the period. Better precipitation
chances will arrive Monday evening, though this activity should
remain just to the south of the terminals.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Issued at 259 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2017

Expect winds to gradually subside over the next couple hours
across the area. RH values have dropped to around 25 percent, and
with winds still gusting to around 25 to 30 mph in some areas
there is another couple hours of concerning fire weather. Once the
sun sets and winds subside to around 5 to 10 mph the fire weather
concerns will be minimal.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Welsh
Fire Weather...Leighton



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