Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 172342
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
542 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 246 PM CST WED JAN 17 2018

With the surface high pressure now to our southeast, winds have
increased from the southwest across the area. For the rest of the
afternoon, snow cover will blunt the actual warmup while the
winds themselves will make it feel colder than it actually is. For
tonight, temperatures may drop somewhat quickly with the loss of
daylight, but then level off or slowly fall the rest of the night
as the area will remain mixed. So for lows tonight, we should see
temperatures fall into the low to mid teens. That nearly 20 degree
bump in lows compared to the previous night will help us warm up
into the mid to upper 30s. The main change tomorrow was to lower
highs a degree or two due to the snow cover. With only an inch or
two across the area, the dampening effect on temperatures should
be short-lived and by Friday temperatures should be able to climb
into mid to upper 40s. By Saturday and Sunday, a relative heat
wave is expected as temperatures climb into the 50s and even the
60s by Sunday.

This weekend warmup is in response to strong warm and moist
advection ahead of strong upper-level storm system moving into the
middle of the country from the Southwest. The moisture advection
will be strong enough that we`ll see our dewpoints climb into
upper 40s and lower 50s in our south. This is well above normal
and in terms of precipitable water, 2 to 3 standard deviations
above normal. The combination of well above normal temperatures
and moisture, with a strong upper-level shortwave trough moving
into the area, will lead strong upward forcing and instability.
While MUCAPE values are only several hundred to as much as 400
J/kg should, this should be enough to result in some
thunderstorms over much of the forecast area. At this point, the
threat of severe weather looks low. But this is a strong and
dynamic system with strong wind fields, especially in the low
levels, so we`ll need to watch this potential as Sunday
approaches.

With the track of this storm system across the northern portions of
the forecast area, it looks like the snow will stay north across NE
and IA. As the upper system moves overhead, pushing the cold front
through and cooling temperatures aloft and at the surface, the
decaying deformation band may bring light snow to mainly
northwestern MO. This could bring a dusting of snow to northern MO.
In the wake of this system, while temperatures will be cooler
than the weekend, the bitterly cold air will remain across the
Northern Plains and Canada. So our temperatures for the first
half of next week will be close to normal, lower 40s for highs and
low to mid 20s for lows.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 540 PM CST WED JAN 17 2018

VFR conditions and winds from the SW around 10kts will remain
throughout the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Barham



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