Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 041957
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
257 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Shortwave tracking northeast out of southern KS will interact with a
stalled frontal/outflow boundary just south of the US 50 corridor
this afternoon and this evening. This interaction will likely lead to
showers and thunderstorms developing across areas near and south of
this boundary through the evening, potentially creeping back north
toward the Missouri River. Airmass across these areas has become
moderately unstable but shear is very weak, so a few short-lived
strong storms can`t be ruled out but the overall severe threat this
evening is low. Slow storm motion could favor pockets of heavy rain,
particularly right along the boundary, but modest precipitable water
values and relatively shallow warm cloud depth don`t point to
widespread flooding problems with tonight`s activity.

A second round of thunderstorms is likely late tonight into Wednesday
with another shortwave dropping out of Nebraska. Interaction of this
feature with the aforementioned boundary and a strengthening low-
level jet could lead to an enhanced risk for heavy rain, particularly
where and if the leading edge of the LLJ becomes aligned with the
boundary. Models have really struggled to pinpoint where this
interaction may occur, bouncing from northern Missouri in earlier
model runs to now southern KS into the MO Ozarks. Since most model
runs have now settled on the latter solution, this is the preferred
forecast for heavy rain potential (for now) which may impact far
southern portions of the forecast area including the Butler/Clinton
areas. These locations have been relatively dry recently and can
handle more rain than areas further north, so will not put out a
flash flood watch at this time. However, given the poor model
performance lately, will need to watch how things evolve overnight in
case Wednesday`s heavy rain potential shifts back north toward areas
that can`t handle as much water.

Departure of Wednesday`s system to the east and modest height rises
across the Plains will bring a drying trend to the area on Thursday.
Temperatures will run close to average.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

As we head into the weekend, the upper-level pattern places the
region in slight northwest flow. To the north across Canada, a
vigorous shortwave trough is progged to slowly translate across the
southern provinces through the weekend. This will send a few weak
surface fronts through the area and don`t look to impact the
temperatures much. To the south and west, a ridge of high pressure
will build over the Southern Plains with a few ridge runners
initiating over the high terrain and riding the ridge into the area
each night/early morning through the weekend. The ridge begins to
build across the inter-mountain west by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the terminals through much of the next
24 hours. Morning convection across far north Missouri looks to stay
clear of the terminals during the day. There is a chance that the KSTJ
site might have some vicinity storms through the mid to late morning
hours from activity sliding southeast from Nebraska. Otherwise, will
likely need to wait till the late afternoon or early evening hours
for storms to redevelop, moving in from the southwest. Confidence on
when these storms will develop is low, but have highlighted the
hours thought to have the greatest threat for storms with a TEMPO
group this evening. Otherwise, expect wind to remain generally at or
below 10 knots from the south to southeast.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Cutter


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