Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 161811

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
111 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Issued at 1049 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Gusty southerly winds and very warm temperatures will persist
across central and southeast Illinois today in advance of a slow
moving weather system in the Plains. Strong capping in place
should keep any convection well to our west into tonight. Going
forecast is in good shape and only minor tweaks are needed to the
hourly trends.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Another mostly sunny and very warm day for central and southeast
IL with highs 85-90F as some cirrus clouds spread east. A few
sites reaching 90F like Champaign airport did yesterday.
Increasing pressure gradient over IL during today with 1020 mb
high pressure over the Atlantic states and 998 mb surface low
pressure in eastern CO deepening to 994 mb as it ejects ne to
southern MN by sunset. Strong winds expected today than what we
experienced past few days, with SW winds gusting to 25-35 mph
during this afternoon. Strong upper level ridge shifts east across
the OH/TN river valleys and into the Appalachians by evening,
keeping strong cap in place over CWA and keeping dry conditions
through tonight with convection staying north and west of central
IL. Clouds to increase over the IL river valley tonight especially
after midnight. Mild lows in the mid to upper 60s which are not
too much cooler than normal highs for mid May.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Warm weather to continue Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the
80s, coolest readings nw of the IL river by Galesburg. Have slight
chances of convection nw of IL river Wed morning, then slight
chances spread as far east as I-57 later Wed afternoon while
30-50% pops from I-55 west and highest west of the IL river.
Another strong surface low pressure ejects ne from eastern CO into
the upper MS river valley by midnight Wed night. Even stronger sw
winds expected Wed with gusts of 30-40 mph Wed afternoon.
Convection chances look more isolated Wed evening and confined to
areas from Champaign to Taylorville se overnight Wed night, and
over southeast IL Thu morning. Then have isolated convection se of
IL river Thu afternoon with breezy sw winds 15-25 mph. Isolated
convection chances shift north of I-70 Thu evening. The frontal
boundary will move se over central IL overnight Thu night into
Friday and bring likely chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs Friday range from around 70F north of Peoria, to the lower
80s in southeast IL.

The frontal boundary will lift northward on Saturday as surface
low pressure develops over the central Plains. This low pressure
will track into the Great Lakes on Sunday and bring a cold front
back through central IL Saturday night and toward the Ohio river
valley on Sunday, keeping good chances of showers and
thunderstorms on Sat and Sat night, then still chance pops
lingering Sunday. Warmer highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s on
Saturday, then cooler upper 60s/lower 70s on Sunday.

Surface high pressure will settle into area early next work week
and bring drier and cooler weather Sunday night thru Monday
evening. Next chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms is
later Monday night western CWA and across area Tuesday and
Wednesday. Highs Monday and Tuesday stay in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

VFR condtions expected across the central Illinois terminals
through the 18Z TAF valid time. A residual shower or thunderstorm
can`t be ruled out after 12Z, but confidence/coverage is too low
to carry at this time. Otherwise, gusty southerly winds will
persist during the daytime hours, with LLWS developing tonight
once the gusts fall off.




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