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000
FXUS63 KILX 192008
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
308 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Visible satellite imagery shows CU field over central IL, with
northern CU edge on the edge of the east west surface boundary of
a cooler, drier airmass that will be drifting south. Surface chart
also depicts lower dew points north of this boundary. SPC
meso analysis shows unstable airmass south of boundary, with
enough shear over the southeast portion of central IL to trigger
few isold to widely scattered storms that will diminish early this
evening with the decrease in diurnal heating.

Brief break with weak high pressure for Sun, as flow turns to
southeast and sets up scenario for low level jet storm development
west of our area on Sun night.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Model trends similar but details a bit different, but the main
theme is MCS development Sun night over southern IA and Northern
MO Sun night. Dieing pcpn to drift east into west central IL late
Sun night and slight chance pops on Mon over most of area with the
MCS remains.

Cloud forecast for the eclipse still pretty consistant with the
dieing storm clouds over central IL, but the lowest SKC percentage
over southern IL, in eclipse track.

Best rainfall chances then come into Mon night and Tue, as the
main upper short wave moves from Dakotas into lower MI, and drags
significant cold front through state. Along and ahead of the
front, significant moisture and the upper level forcing will bring
rainfall for most of region that will finally exit reigon on Tue
night.

Cooler and drier air will flow into the area by Wed with high
pressure affecting the region the rest of the week into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Morning sounding and progs shows enough leftover low level
moisture to produc some CU development over southeast half of
central IL. This also seen in VSB satellite imagery. Even with
dryier air flowing slowly into region overnight, lingering
moisture over eastern TAF sites enough for patchy possible fog
late tonight reducing VSB into MVFR category. Will have to watch
that, with some restriction also noted at other TAF sites to west.
Winds will shift to the south and southeast by Sunday with some
SCt CU again possible.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Goetsch
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Goetsch