Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 232330
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
530 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Areas of light rain continue just north of the Ohio River early
this afternoon, with the main thrust of activity extending
southwest into Oklahoma and north Texas. Upper wave across that
area will be lifting northeast through this evening, with the rain
moving back into the forecast area. Through midnight, this should
stay along and south of I-72. North of there, there remains
concerns for a mixture of snow/sleet/freezing rain. Warm nose
still evident on morning model soundings around 2500 feet or so,
mainly across the northern CWA late tonight and early Saturday.
Will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Knox and Fulton Counties,
where some light icing is expected on elevated surfaces and
bridge decks. Any icing will not last long, as temperatures reach
above freezing by mid to late morning.

Morning model suite are in general agreement with cyclogenesis
over the southern Plains, with the surface low moving into
Wisconsin by late Saturday evening. Focus for the heavy rain
remains along and south of I-70. WPC Day2 flood outlook for
Saturday continues a moderate risk in that area, and model
guidance persists with ample precipitable water values around 1.5
inches. Will be issuing a Flood Watch for that area, running from
6 pm this evening through midnight Saturday evening, as amounts of
2-3 inches appear likely. Marginal risk of severe weather remains
over most of the same area as well.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Main cold front will be sweeping across the area Saturday evening,
with PoP`s rapidly dropping off behind the front. Have maintained
thunder mention west of I-55 early evening and east of there
through midnight. After that, the active pattern settles down for
a few days. No significant dropoff in temperatures with the upper
flow off the Pacific, and highs should be up into the 60s by
Tuesday.

Mid week storm system remains a challenge. The GFS follows a
pattern similar to this weekend`s system, with a strong cyclone
and more widespread showers/storms Wednesday into Wednesday
evening. The European model has a much weaker wave developing in
the southern stream, with a focus for us more with a northern wave
on Thursday. Not a lot of confidence in that part of the forecast
at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 530 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

moisture associated with overrunning to the cold side of a slow
moving cold front will keep conditions IFR through the period with
CIGS frequently blo 1k ft. Vsbys will also start to fall later
tonight as -ra moves in ahead of the next disturbance moving up
the front. KPIA may briefly mix with PL soon after the pcpn begins
before becoming all -ra by sunrise. Winds should come around to
the northeast to east ahead of this disturbance.

Although trw can not be ruled out during the day Saturday, chances
do not appear to be high enough to warrant a mention before 00z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday evening for ILZ062-063-066>068-
071>073.

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Saturday for
ILZ027-036.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barker



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