Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
766
FXUS63 KILX 030834
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
234 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

The progress and track of the occluded low and trailing surface
trough from eastern Iowa to the northeast this morning will play a
role in how far southeast the chances for rain or snow will
extend into central IL. Satellite and radar loops are pointing
toward the better chances of precipitation remaining west of I-55
this morning, with high resolution models indicating some
sprinkles or flurries lingering north of I-74 into this afternoon.

A brief period of clearing in central and eastern Illinois early
this morning will be followed by increasing clouds from the west by
mid to late morning. Forecast soundings indicate clouds should then
prevail across the entire area this afternoon, and upstream
observations also point toward that scenario.

Blustery southwest winds at 15 gusting to 30 mph this morning will
become west to northwest this afternoon, making the mid to upper
30s feel quite a bit colder. Winds will remain brisk until closer
to sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

A fairly quiet weather pattern is on tap into the weekend. As a pair
of long wave troughs pass through the region, some clipper-type
systems will zip through the Midwest. Right now, they are expected
to stay to our north, so the forecast will be dry through Sunday. No
significant cold surges are expected during this period, and highs
should return to the 40s across the entire forecast area by the
weekend.

Some differences are setting up in regards to the cold surge early
next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF dig a broad trough southward
across the Plains on Sunday, with a cutoff upper low over the
southeast U.S. However, the latter model is quicker in cutting off a
low within the trough just to our northwest as early as Sunday
night, while the GFS drops an upper low out of central Canada into
Illinois by midday Tuesday. The GFS solution continues to bring a
large lobe of Arctic air with it, while the ECMWF only brings some
small pieces of it and keeps the bulk of the cold air to our north.
The discrepancy results in about a 10-15 degree spread in expected
temperatures between the two models. For now, will split the
difference and drop highs into the 20s by Tuesday. However,
confidence levels are rather low that far out at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

Moisture trapped beneath a low level inversion, coupled with weak
winds in the vicinity of an occluded frontal boundary, has
resulted in widespread IFR stratus/fog. The occluded boundary is
finally starting to head to the northeast, so conditions should
improve briefly to VFR during the overnight hours. However, wrap
around moisture on the back side of the departing storm system
will drop CIGs back to MVFR Wednesday morning, which is where they
should stay for the balance of the 06Z TAF valid time. Little or
now snowfall is anticipated with this next area of low clouds. Light
winds in the vicinity of the occluded boundary will become gusty
from the southwest later tonight, and then eventually from the
west.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM CST early this morning for
ILZ027>031-036>038-041>046-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...BAK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.