Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 151106
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
506 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

A significant uptick in shower activity has occurred across
central Illinois since midnight, with a few thunderstorms now
occurring in the last 15-30 minutes. Main cold front is still off
to the west in central Iowa, and will be moving into the western
CWA late this morning. Periods of showers will be widespread ahead
of this front, and have gone with near 100% PoP`s in most areas
this morning. A sharp cutoff is expected in the rain as the front
passes, and eastern Illinois should be dry by mid afternoon, as
the rain shield gets out a little further ahead of the front.
Skies expected to become mostly sunny across the western CWA by
mid afternoon as well, with the clearing trend overspreading the
remainder of the area by early evening.

The morning is starting off rather mild, mainly mid 40s to lower
50s at 2 am. Thus, highs in the mid 50s should be attainable
across the western CWA, where there will be some afternoon sun.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Main forecast focus for this period remains with the late week
storm system. Evening model suite continues to indicate the
frontal passage Saturday morning, with the front generally in the
I-55 to I-57 region by sunrise. A more elevated convection
scenario still appears reasonable, which would cut back on any
potential severe weather threat. While scattered showers are
expected during the day Friday, the bulk of the rain will come
Friday night into the first part of Saturday. After this system
exits, dry weather will occur into early next week.

The associated wide upper trough, which will overspread a good
portion of the eastern U.S. early in the weekend, will remain
rather progressive. Thus, it appears that just a quick shot of
much colder air is expected. Temperatures will rebound quickly
early next week, as an upper flow off the Pacific sets up over the
western half of the CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 505 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms will occur this
morning, ahead of a cold front. Currently ceilings are mainly
MVFR level, but a brief period of IFR conditions is expected as
the front gets closer. Following passage, skies will rapidly
clear, but breezy northwest winds at or above 10 knots will
continue well into the evening.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Geelhart



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