Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KILX 310810
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
310 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE 1012MB SURFACE LOW THAT WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS HAS FINALLY DEPARTING INTO INDIANA AT 08Z/3AM...JUST
ACROSS THE BORDER FROM LAWRENCEVILLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEPART AWAY TO THE EAST...SUBSIDENT MOTIONS WILL INCREASE AND
WORK TO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 AND NORTH OF I-70. WE EXPECT TO SEE ENOUGH
LIFT IN THE TROWAL REGION NW OF THE LOW EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE...BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR EVEN THE EASTERN AREAS
AFTER NOON.

CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT TODAY...AS INDICATED BY THE RAP
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR FORECAST MOISTURE. NAM AND GFS ALSO SUPPORT A
CLOUDIER SOLUTION TODAY AS WELL...SO WILL KEEP A CLOUDY SKY IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE WILL REMAIN NW OF THE IL RIVER TOWARDS GALESBURG...WHICH
MAY HELP THEIR HIGH TEMPS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE EASTERN AREAS.
WE WENT CLOSER TO MAVMOS IN THAT AREA...WHILE TRIMMING A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW GUID ELSEWHERE UNDER THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS. A BRISK
NORTH WIND WILL ADD A SPRING CHILL TO THE AIR AS WELL...WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF. THIS WILL
KEEP MUCH OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH ILLINOIS ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB AND RETURN TO
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE HIGH WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OFF TO OUR WEST...FROM AN UPPER
WAVE EMERGING INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME PROGRESS SHOULD BE MADE BY BY
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEVELOP MCS-TYPE ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH DROPS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS
SHOWS MORE OF A DIFFUSE AREA OF REMNANTS COVERING MUCH OF ILLINOIS
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF FOCUSES THE MCS TRACK ALONG A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO
INDIANAPOLIS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS NORTH OF I-70 FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
WHILE POP`S ARE INCLUDED AREA-WIDE FOR SATURDAY...THIS IS LESS
CERTAIN AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT ENDS
UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
BREAK IN THE IFR AND MVFR CIGS TO SOME LOW VFR CIGS PUSHING SOUTH
TOWARDS PIA. MOST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGESTS IF THIS DOES
GET INTO PIA...IT WON`T LAST VERY LONG AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF
TO OUR EAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WRAPPING ADDITIONAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWEST INTO THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND THRU
MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BRIEF
BREAK TO LOW VFR CIGS AT PIA BUT WON`T EXPAND THAT FURTHER ACROSS
THE TAF FORECAST AREA...KEEPING MOST OF OUR AREA WITH MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT SEEING ANY NEW DATA
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...IF THEN...OVER IN PIA. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THRU THE NIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 12 TO 17 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 23 KTS. LOOK FOR SIMILAR WIND
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DIMINISHING WINDS
TOWARDS EVENING.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.