Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 170514
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1114 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Temperature at CMI has already dropped below forecast overnight
low and everywhere except for where clouds are, temps are in the
single digits. Like last night, skies are mostly clear, there is
fresh snow cover, and high pressure sfc ridge is west of the area.
Only difference is that there is less wind than last night. So,
conditions seem more favorable tonight for very frigid temps, even
as cold as last night. So update coming to account for colder
temps. Clouds are clearing to the south and forecast has good
handle on this. Will also make a minor adjustment to timing of
flurries ending.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Sharp upper trough extending from Lower Michigan to Missouri is
currently creating enough synoptic lift to trigger scattered snow
showers across central Illinois. Visibilities have occasionally
been reduced to around 2 miles: however, accumulations have been
been minimal. Satellite trends show partial clearing behind the
trough axis across Iowa and northern Illinois, so am expecting
clouds to hang on for a few more hours before skies clear from
northwest to southeast after sunset. Overnight lows will be in the
single digits above zero...with wind-chills from five below to ten
below zero. Sunshine will return to the picture on Wednesday,
allowing temperatures to slowly moderate into the lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Its smooth sailing for much of the extended. After one more cold
night Wednesday night, a marked warming trend will get underway
for the end of the week. Temperatures will climb into the 30s on
Thursday...then will soar into the 50s by Saturday and Sunday. As
has been well-advertised for the past several days, the next
storm system of note will not impact the region until late in the
weekend...resulting in rain chances arriving by Saturday night and
Sunday. In fact, if the GFS low track across central Illinois
verifies, would not be surprised to see some isolated thunder
introduced to the forecast Sunday/Sunday night. After the system
passes, mild and dry weather will return early next week with
temperatures in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1114 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. With high
pressure to the southwest and forecast for this to slide south
into the lower Miss valley, believe clear skies will be the rule
for overnight and into tomorrow. However, a weak sfc trough will
rotate into the Great Lakes region tomorrow and bring some
possible scattered mid clouds to the area for the afternoon. Then
skies should become clear again tomorrow evening. Winds will be
westerly through most of the period, but then become southwest
during the evening hours.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten



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