Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 290742
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
242 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Large upper low clearly seen on water vapor imagery early this
morning just north of the Minnesota arrowhead. As this feature
slowly wobbles northeast through tonight, periodic shortwaves will
rotate around it and swing across the Midwest. While a lot of the
activity will be closer to the low, the arrival of one of the
waves will trigger some isolated convection by mid afternoon from
about I-55 east, where CAPE`s are progged to reach about 1000
J/kg. Chances settle into southeast Illinois by early evening and
should be out of the forecast area by midnight.

As the upper wave should arrive later in the day, the warmer
weather will linger for another day, with highs mainly in the
lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

The upper pattern will be slow to transition through mid week, but
the broad trough will slowly shift east as the upper low hangs out
over northern Ontario. Additional isolated convection is possible
Tuesday afternoon and evening as the next wave passes, then dry
weather is on tap through Wednesday night as high pressure slowly
drifts eastward.

Main focus remains with the latter part of the week. The GFS and
ECMWF are starting to get into a little better sync with the
positioning of the frontal boundary on Friday night and Saturday,
generally over the middle of the forecast area. However, the ECMWF
is a bit faster in shutting off the precipitation late Saturday.
Model disagreements return Sunday, with the GFS featuring the
arrival of a shortwave from the northwest, and the ECMWF slowly
building an upper ridge eastward. A slight nudge toward the latter
model is in the forecast for this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours, with clouds mainly
at or above 10,000 feet. Some gustiness is expected midday into
Monday afternoon as a fast moving disturbance moves through the
region. This may touch off a few showers and storms late
afternoon, mainly near KCMI/KDEC.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Geelhart



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