000
FXUS63 KILX 251743
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1243 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1011 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

OVERNIGHT MCS FROM IOWA HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME WARMING CLOUD TOPS
AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS. HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME
LIGHT ECHOES ON RADAR AS FAR EAST AS THE INDIANA BORDER...BUT THE
AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS VERY DRY AS EVIDENCED BY THE
MORNING SOUNDING AND LAPS ANALYSIS...SO A LOT OF THIS HAS BEEN
ALOFT. FINALLY SEEING SOME MEASURABLE RAIN AROUND GALESBURG
THOUGH. RAP AND HRRR MODELS DOING A REASONABLE JOB WITH THE MCS
ITSELF...AND SHOW THE RAIN MOST WIDESPREAD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE BREAKING UP. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SO HAVE CUT BACK SOME
ON THE THUNDER CHANCES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-74. HAVE SENT OUT
SOME UPDATES TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LESSER CHANGES NEEDED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.

GEELHART


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1243 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

LARGE RAIN SHIELD HAS OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TAF SITES AT
MIDDAY. THUNDER HAS BEEN ON THE WANE...AND HAVE REMOVED THUNDER AT
ALL SITES BY ABOUT 21-22Z. HAVE SEEN SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH. MAIN QUESTION LATER ON IS WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. MOST MODELS FAVOR IT DEVELOPING IN
IOWA SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST RAP MODEL IS INDICATING NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS FOR INITIATION. HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER TAFS
IN REGARDS TO THIS...ASIDE FROM MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS...FAVORING
RAIN AND VCTS MENTIONS WHILE THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE
EVALUATED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE TRIED TO INDICATE A FEW
HOURS OF DRIER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE EARLIER QUESTION OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.

GEELHART

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 242 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY
MUCH WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE NOSE OF A 45-50KT LLJ
OVER NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK E/SE INTO THE AREA TODAY. MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR EAST THE PRECIP CAN PENETRATE INTO
SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
GULF COAST. 00Z KILX UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY DRY PROFILE
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO ABOUT 500MB. ANY PRECIP MOVING INTO THIS
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WILL INITIALLY EVAPORATE UNTIL THE AIRMASS IS
SUFFICIENTLY MOISTENED. DUE TO THE CONTINUED DRY E/NE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...HAVE REMOVED POPS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. FURTHER WEST...HIGH-RES HRRR
SUGGESTS NEBRASKA CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO
WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARD MIDDAY. WILL THEREFORE CARRY CHANCE
POPS DURING THE MORNING...THEN LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG/WEST OF I-55.

INITIAL AREA OF CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO
EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN AND FOCUS A
RENEWED ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UPSTREAM ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK E/SE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH AIRMASS MOISTENED FROM INITIAL
PRECIP TODAY...THINK RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE BOARD
TONIGHT/SUNDAY. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE FAR SE CWA.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL FIRE ON MONDAY...AS PERSISTENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIT POPS HARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THIS MULTI-DAY
EVENT WILL BE LIGHTEST ALONG THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER WHERE
AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE COMMON. HIGHER RAIN TOTALS
WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55 WHERE ONE
AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES WILL BE LIKELY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL FINALLY
GIVE THE SURFACE FRONT A GOOD PUSH NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN LOWER POPS AND HIGHER TEMPS. WILL ONLY CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...WHILE HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. AFTER THAT...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY SOMEWHAT
CONCERNING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER RIDGE EVENTUALLY BREAKS DOWN.
GIVEN AMPLIFIED PATTERN...THINK THIS WILL BE LATER RATHER THAN
SOONER...SO HAVE GONE WITH A VERY WARM AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PUSH INTO THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...SO HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER
ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S.

BARNES


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$