Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
FXUS63 KILX 300831
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
331 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
ISSUED 317 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014
Forecast and overall atmospheric pattern slow to change right now
as an upper low remains parked over the southern tip of Hudson
Bay...with the trof dominating the eastern half of the CONUS. 500
mb ridge over the west, and sfc high pressure building into the
Midwest with northwesterly flow aloft. Forecast driven by slowly
warming temperatures, still below normal for late July, light
winds, and afternoon showers. Next chance for a slightly more
substantial chance for thunderstorms arrives on Friday, with a
wave diving into the upper trof and helping to enhance the
dynamics. Overall, very little in the forecast warranting more
than a chance/scattered mention, and not many changes expected
until the pattern breaks later in the weekend.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Partly cloudy afternoon skies with slight chance for some
afternoon showers and iso thunder... with the better chances to
the northeast. High temperatures upper 70s/low 80s...and overnight
lows dropping to upper 50s/near 60 with mostly clear skies. Upper
low anchored over southeastern Canada keeps the weather in a
pretty stagnant pattern and below normal temps in the Midwest.
LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...
Best chances for showers and thunderstorms moving in for Friday...
as a wave rotates through the trof and enhances chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Models pretty consistent with
this feature...though coverage is not expected to be widespread
just yet. High pressure dominating into the weekend as the sfc
ridge axis moves into the region. Winds remain light and variable
and dry forecast as the upper trof finally starts to progress
across into the NE. Chances for more significant weather starting
to return Tues/Wed as a more active and progressive flow sets up
across the country.
ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Clear skies and light winds will continue overnight. VFR conditions
will continue at all TAF sites next 24hrs. A line of scattered showers
continues to move southeast through northeast IL tonight. Though
it looks like they could reach toward Champaign, they should miss
the TAF site overnight. Will not have any pcpn mentioned at CMI at
this time. Winds tomorrow will be westerly at around 10kts with
scattered CU around 5kft and then dissipate again tomorrow evening
with lighter winds.