Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 050830
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
330 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA THAT IS FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...KEEPING PCPN LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
AS WELL. SO...POPS/WX FOR TODAY HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTH SOME SO
THAT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74 WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PCPN TODAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NOT REAL CLOUDY OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...BUT AS THINGS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT BUT BECOME LIGHT
EASTERLY DURING THE PERIOD. CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
TODAY AND SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWER HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
SOUTH WHERE MORE PCPN AND THICKER CLOUDS WILL BE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

00Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED QPF TONIGHT INTO THU AND ALSO TRENDING QUICKER ENDING
THE CHANCES OF RAIN BY THU AFTERNOON. NAM AND ECMWF MODELS ARE STILL
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE FURTHEST SOUTH GFS MODEL AND STAYED CLOSER TO
NAM/ECMWF MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES. NORTHERN CWA FROM PEORIA NORTH
NOW LOOK DRY WHILE SOUTHEAST IL TO HAVE HIGHEST POPS OF 60-80% WHILE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HALF TO 1 INCH FROM I-70 SOUTH. THE HEAVIER RAINS
OF 1-2 INCHES NOW APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF I-64 WHERE FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL BE HIGHER TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

00Z FORECAST MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.
SO IL GETS ESTABLISH IN A NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES AND POSSIBLE MCS TO
AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION AS THEY MOVE AROUND TOP OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE (RING OF FIRE). HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION WEST OF I-57
ON FRIDAY WHILE BETTER CHANCES IN SW IL INTO SE MO WHERE POSSIBLE
MCS INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND NORTH OF I-80 WHERE A STRONGER SHORT
WAVE TRACKS EAST INTO WI AND NORTHERN IL BY 00Z/SAT. ECWMF MODEL
KEEPS QPF NORTH AND NE OF CENTRAL IL FRI NIGHT AS DISTURBANCE TRACKS
EAST ACROSS MI WHILE GFS HAS QPF AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL IL. ELECTED
TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT. HIGHS FRI IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S AND MID TO UPPER 80S SAT AND RATHER HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDGING ESE FROM IA INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL SAT
NIGHT INTO TUE TO BRING A POSSIBLE MCS WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SIDED WITH WETTER ECMWF MODEL WHILE GFS MODEL IS
TOTALLY DRY OVER CWA SAT NIGHT AND JUST HAS LIGHT QPF PATCHES IN NW
CWA SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL IL DURING MONDAY KEEPING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. THEN DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO IA/MO BY TUE
NIGHT/WED. HIGHS IN THE 80S MONDAY THEN A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID
TUE/WED BEHIND THE FRONT.


DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEIR AFFECT ON CIGS...ESPECIALLY
AT KSPI AND KDEC...AS A WEATHER SYSTEM DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE NOTED OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS EVENING AND THOSE ARE EXPECTED
TO DRIFT EAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE AIR MASS IN OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING WAS QUITE STABLE
SO IT APPEARS AT LEAST THE INTENSITY WILL WEAKEN AS THEY DRIFT
EAST BUT CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE OF THE RAIN OVER WESTERN IL LATE
TONIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A DECREASE
IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS A
RESULT...UNLESS WE SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A VCTS AT KSPI IN THE 06Z
TO 09Z TIME FRAME.

AS THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...THE HIGHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM SPRINGFIELD TO DECATUR AND SOUTH.
STILL THINKING MAINLY SOME SCATTERED TO BKN MID CLOUDS WITH SOME
HIGHER OVERCAST FURTHER NORTH...WITH LOWER VFR CIGS AT KSPI AND
KDEC. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SMITH


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