Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 260858
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
358 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Early this morning, a weak ridge stretched from the western Gulf
Coast up through the Upper Midwest. However, the weak ridge is
losing ground to clouds filtering in ahead of the next system
moving into the region. For today, generally the cooler temps
associated with clouds between the clouds streaming in from the
west and the cu that will develop in any clear spots. A couple of
weak waves on sat imagery moving through the forecast area this
morning along with a very weak boundary...bringing some showers
to the region, with increasing chances later this
afternoon/evening. Models still differ with how far north the
stronger wave will move later this afternoon. Models have trended
north...but wave on sat imagery is a little further south in the
water vapor. Either way...chance for showers and later
thunderstorms today will linger into the evening and overnight
hours. Thunderstorms are contingent on breaking a relatively weak
cap with weak warm air advection into the region...as well as whether
or not the region will get an assist from outflow from convection
upstream this morning. Overnight lows are limited to the upper
50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Next wave moves into the region with a sfc low from the SW as the
upper trough moves through the Midwest. Last couple synoptic runs
of the models tracking significantly further south with the low
itself...keeping much of the warm frontal feature out of Central
IL. Significant MUCAPE across the region invof and behind the
lifting warm front throughout the day...but once again, further
south...leaving the uncertainty of the track a concern for Central
IL. Either way, SPC has kept Central IL in a slight risk,
partially due to some uncertainty...but also as the storms may be
focused further to the south, but more than enough instability
will be in place to warrant the threat. Easterly flow for much of
Saturday is actually keeping the temperatures mainly in the
70s and lower 80s. The storm system moves through the Midwest
through the remainder of the weekend slowing as the front moves
east of ILX...lingering the pops in the southeastern portions of the
state. Sunday evening will dry out...but pops return into the
forecast Monday, though weak and in the northern portions of the
state under cyclonic flow. Pops through the end of the week are
relatively low and sporadic until Thursday as another frontal
boundary stretches across the Midwest, providing a focus for
showers and thunderstorms. Mild and seasonal temperatures are
expected in the extended.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Weak returns on radar scattered may warrant an update for a VCSH
but otherwise VFR with variable/SE winds through the overnight.
More southerly winds tomorrow with some gusts up to 15-20kts.
VCTS as a wave passes to the north with a cu field building in.
Low level moisture gets trapped in the overnight and results in a
bkn stratocu deck with light winds with a sw/se component.
Guidance starting to drop to MVFR for tomorrow night, but that
will be highly dependent on how deep the moisture trapped in the
low levels actually is. Not willing to drop that far as of yet.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...HJS



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