Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 161119
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
519 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Quiet weather is expected during the short term. Still have some
gusty winds over 20 mph early this morning, but these will
diminish later this morning as the strong surface low moves east
into Quebec. High pressure drifting east through the Midwest will
keep conditions dry in our area. By tonight, a southeast flow will
start to set up behind the low, and that will keep temperatures
fairly steady through the night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Evening model suite in good agreement that the incoming cold front
will pass through the forecast area Saturday morning. Initial
effects will be with scattered showers during the day on Friday,
but bulk of the rain remains Friday night into at least the first
half of Saturday. Severe weather threat still looks rather low,
but we should still see at least scattered thunderstorms. GFS
shows about 500 J/kg of CAPE Friday night into early Saturday.

Given the strength of the overall system, rather windy conditions
are expected on the back side of the storm on Saturday. Some gusts
30-35 mph are likely. Temperatures will be falling through the
day, as strong cold air advection takes place.

A few days of quiet weather is expected into the first part of the
new week, as the main storm track will be across the northern
Plains into the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 518 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Initial batch of stratocumulus below 2,000 feet has pushed south
of the TAF sites. The leading edge of another large cloud field
has been edging southward, though last several satellite images
show some slowing of the southward progression, in areas just
north of KPIA. Will maintain a TEMPO group for some MVFR ceilings
at KPIA/KBMI for a few hours. TAF sites further south expected to
remain VFR through the period. As high pressure drifts east today,
winds will become light and variable this afternoon, before
trending toward the southeast tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Geelhart


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