Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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984
FXUS63 KILX 222351
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
651 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

A high pressure ridge over the Mississippi River Valley this
afternoon will continue to move across the region tonight.  The
ridge will keep the skies mostly clear with very light and variable
winds.  By morning, the ridge axis should be much further to the
east, resulting in more south/southeasterly turn to the winds.  A
quiet night overall is expected for Central Illinois.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Two upper lows, over the east and west coast remain in place
today...with pleasant weather in the middle and warm temperatures
continuing to build a thermal ridge in the mid levels over the
Plains. Models persist with solutions for the pattern shift as the
eastern low finally kicks out off the coast, allowing the warm
temperatures to spread into the Midwest as more southwesterly flow
aloft sets up for a series of shortwaves next week.  The result is
warm temperatures but an active rainy/stormy pattern.  The real
issues in the forecast revolve around the persistent chances for
showers and thunderstorms...but as showery and not an all day rain
in most cases...a tricky temperature forecast.

Models are showing more consistency with slowing the approach of the
first wave Monday night until after 06z for just the western half of
the state, if that. Chances increase on Tuesday from west to
east...but not all the way to the Indiana border until later in the
afternoon/evening Tuesday.  So far, the best chances for severe
weather is slated for Wednesday, assuming at least a partial
clearing allowing for temperatures warming/destabilization of the
atmosphere.  Too early to make too many judgment calls with the
severe chances...but it will remain a time frame to watch.  Beyond
mid-week...the chance pops stay in the forecast through the end of
the week and at least partially into the weekend as the trof over
the western half of the country expands and continues a series of
weak waves in southwesterly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

VFR conditions expected across the central Illinois terminals
through the 00Z TAF valid time. A ridge of high pressure will
slowly pull away from the area tonight, with winds shifting from
variable to southeast on its back side. Minimal cloud cover is
expected through the period, with mainly thin cirrus anticipated.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BAK



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